Cedi needs more than controls - analysts

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• still rastafari 10 years ago

  what is the over expenditure used on especially the $4billion in the last 3 months of 2012

  what is the over expenditure used on especially the $4billion in the last 3 months of 2012

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• Wayosi 10 years ago

  I hope, the incompetent leaders will read this. This is not partisan but from an independent analyst. Control is not the answer as the bogus Mr. minister of Finance and governor of bank of Ghana believe.

  I hope, the incompetent leaders will read this. This is not partisan but from an independent analyst. Control is not the answer as the bogus Mr. minister of Finance and governor of bank of Ghana believe.

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• K MAN 10 years ago

  Most sensible observers in Ghana know that the defecit and overspend and "external fiscal challenges" basically loans and import, import, import is ultimately killing Ghana slowly.
  
  The incompetence of Mahama and his minis ...
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  Most sensible observers in Ghana know that the defecit and overspend and "external fiscal challenges" basically loans and import, import, import is ultimately killing Ghana slowly.
  
  The incompetence of Mahama and his ministers is exacerbating the situation especially as corruption is still rife and not being addressed within locl and central government. How much less would the defecit be if we cut corruption by half..because corruption in this time won't go away 100%..no way.
  
  Until Ghanaians are honest with and put Ghana first, that's right...GHANA not NDC or NPP, we won't move forward. That does not mean we let Mahama not feel any pepper because he is the one who is supposed to be in charge and should have enough sense or shame that he would move the incompetents out and start to work in a bi-partisan and logical way and put those in his party (if there any) or in Ghanaian society in positions of power who KNOW what they are doing.

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• oppong london 10 years ago

  the stolen election by ndc and john mahama have affected the economy and the cedi ,the same thing happened in the usa when bush stole al gore ,which resulted to 9/11 by bin laden,this is the same thing in ghana.

  the stolen election by ndc and john mahama have affected the economy and the cedi ,the same thing happened in the usa when bush stole al gore ,which resulted to 9/11 by bin laden,this is the same thing in ghana.

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• dan 10 years ago

  AND YOUR NONSENSE YOU ARE DESTROYING GHANA SOON WE ALL GOING TO STARVE TO DEATH HERE IN GHANA

  AND YOUR NONSENSE YOU ARE DESTROYING GHANA SOON WE ALL GOING TO STARVE TO DEATH HERE IN GHANA

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• Joe Ghana 10 years ago

  What kind of writing is this? Write a whole page of analysis exchange rate changes without anchoring the changes to any spot rate is not only unprofessional; it is outright stupid.
  
  How do you expect readers to put a preci ...
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  What kind of writing is this? Write a whole page of analysis exchange rate changes without anchoring the changes to any spot rate is not only unprofessional; it is outright stupid.
  
  How do you expect readers to put a precise picture to the situation you are describing? There was no mention or citation of the spot or future rate to make a reference and anchor all the changes decribed here to.
  
  You cannot talk about percentage changes without pointing to what the change is based on. 4% of 100 is more significant than 10% of 10. That is why you need the reference point. What is the cedi changing for at the moment of writing and What was it a week ago will make more sense to common minds than "4% depreciation".
  
  Learn good prefessional writing dear brothers and sisters.

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• K.B GHANAIAN 10 years ago

  YOU IT AND DO OTHERWISE.I EXPORTED SOME GOOD TO GHANA AFTER SENDING MONEY HOME FOR THEM TO CLEAR IT FROM TEMA HABOUR ON MY BEHALF.ONLY TO BE TOLD THAT ,I HAVE TO PAY THE DUTY FEES IN U.S DOLLARS IN GHANA,WHILES I WAS HAVING M ...
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  YOU IT AND DO OTHERWISE.I EXPORTED SOME GOOD TO GHANA AFTER SENDING MONEY HOME FOR THEM TO CLEAR IT FROM TEMA HABOUR ON MY BEHALF.ONLY TO BE TOLD THAT ,I HAVE TO PAY THE DUTY FEES IN U.S DOLLARS IN GHANA,WHILES I WAS HAVING MORE THAN ENOUANEMIESGH GHANA CEDIS WITH MY RELATIVES HOME.WHERE I EXPORTED THE GOODS IS A DEVELOPED COUNTRY BUT THEY NEVER ASKED ME TO PAY ANY DUTY FEES THERE IN DOLLARS AND IN CEDIS.
  AM WARNING GHANAIANS WE ARE OUR OWN ENEMIES ,IF WE ARE NOT CAREFUL WE WILL END UP LIKE ZIMBABWE WHERE OUR CURRENCY WILL BE USELESS AND TOILET PARPER WILL BE VALUABLE THAN THE CURRENCY ,IF WE CONTINUE QUOTING THINGS IN U.S .DOLLARS AND NEGLECT OUR OWN CURRENCY.YOU CHECK ON THE INTERNET AND EVERYTHING IS QUOTED IN U.S .DOLLARS WHAT A BRAINWASH PEOPLE WE ARE!!!!!.OUR OWN TEMA HARBOUR CHARGING FEES IN .U.S.DOLLARS SHAME TO YOU ALL!!!!!!.WHHAT A NATION.

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• kofi nyame 10 years ago

  why not control or stop the illegal roadside money changer at the airport area, zongo areas, lagos lorry station tudu and many other places.

  why not control or stop the illegal roadside money changer at the airport area, zongo areas, lagos lorry station tudu and many other places.

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• Competent Economist 10 years ago

  Basic economics tells us that if the value of the currency of Country A is falling relative to that of Country B then it means domestic inflation is high in Country A compared to Country B.
  
  In lay man's terms therefore if ...
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  Basic economics tells us that if the value of the currency of Country A is falling relative to that of Country B then it means domestic inflation is high in Country A compared to Country B.
  
  In lay man's terms therefore if the Ghana Cedi is falling against the US Dollar then it is because domestic inflation is high in Ghana compared to the US.
  
  This means Ghana must deal with domestic inflation to arrest the falling Cedi. It is not correct for the Bank of Ghana (BOG) to just blame the Ghanaian business community for trying to save the value of their wealth by dollarising.
  
  The BOG should rather ask: "Why is everyone rushing for the Dollar?" The answer is simple: High domestic inflation. Ghanaians or Ghanaian businessmen do not hate the Cedi but they just want to make sure they can continue to remain in business. If Ghanaians keep their money in Cedis but the value of the Cedi keeps falling (whether official government inflation statistics capture rising inflation or not) then they will have to stop importing vital goods.
  
  Ghanaians are rushing for the Dollar because of domestic inflation. The BOG forcing Ghanaians to just use Cedis or converting the savings in the Dollar accounts of Ghanaians into Cedi equivalent is not the solution since all the products the typical Ghanaian uses have to be imported and they need dollars to import the goods. Or is the Government and the BOG now going to enforce a strict "Buy Ghana only policy"? We doubt it and it is not prudent as a policy measure.
  
  The question to ask then is "who caused the inflation that is responsible for the uncontrollable rush for dollars that is in turn causing the value of the Cedi to plummet?" Well we do know about cost push and demand pull inflation and we do recognize that inflation can be due to many factors. However the major cause of inflation in any country is seigniorage (the printing of money).
  
  Milton Friedman, the famous Nobel-prize winning economist once quipped "Inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon." This means inflation in Ghana is due to increases in money supply which is controlled by BOG. It is the BOG’s job to control the money supply in the Ghana. When the money supply in the economic system is high domestic inflation is high and vice versa. Further when domestic inflation is high the value of the Cedi falls as people rush for dollars and vice versa.
  
  It seems logical to argue then that the BOG is the one printing money and increasing the money supply leading to domestic inflation in Ghana perhaps under pressure from the executive. This is easy enough to believe given the very high recent government expenditure on items like the election and the wage bill and the excessive borrowing the Ghana government has been doing. Surely someone has to pay for such wanton expenditure?
  
  It is not a logical stretch to surmise that new money was printed to finance this expenditure but we have no evidence to support such an assertion. In an ideal situation the BOG will have real independence from the government so they can refuse to print new money even if the government wants more money released into the system. At present there is a law that guarantees independence to the Central Bank Governor but because the president retains the power to fire him and because the central bank governor only has a 4 year term instead of a 14 year term like in the US the BOG governor remains directly under the control of Ghana's president.
  
  This means the law guaranteeing the independence of the BOG governor is an ineffective one at best and cannot prevent government from demanding more money from the BOG for more expenditure whether ill-advised or not. The Bank of Ghana (BOG) clearly needs to tackle domestic inflation in spite of the non-alarming 13.5% posted by GSS. However the BOG has already failed with its policy of inflation targeting. The target was supposed to be single digit (6-8%) but inflation is now officially 13.5%. Even worse is the almost certain possibility that inflation is actually higher than it is reported by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS).
  
  This maybe because the GSS is measuring Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation using a questionable approach. In fact as if to pacify its critics about its vexatious handling of inflation measurement, the GSS announced in 2013 that it had increased the contents of the typical basket used for computing CPI by 41 items. Unfortunately this act seemed more like a mea culpa about the GSS’s challenges in measuring CPI and inflation. Note that the CPI is the price of the typical basket of goods the average consumer buys.
  
  The inflation rate is calculated as the percentage change in the CPI. It seems that "Ghana's chickens have finally come home to roost" A combination of factors such as mismanagement of money supply and inflation by the BOG and wanton government expenditure and borrowing are killing the Cedi.
  
  We are hoping that if you have read this piece to this point then you now have some idea as to what should be done to arrest the Cedi's demise. (i) Reign in domestic inflation now although unfortunately this may mean increasing interest rates. (ii) Stop the wanton government expenditure with no value for money (iii) Limit government borrowing (iv) Stop printing money to finance everything just because you can. This is indirect taxation and it is undermining grievously the value of the Cedi. (v) Finally put in place policies to stimulate domestic production and exports so that the supply of Dollars to Ghana will increase.

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