EDITORIAL: NPP, 2008 is not a foregone conclusion

The latest Economist Intelligence Unit report on Ghana makes some interesting re-assessments; with economic growth projections scaled down as a result of the ongoing energy crisis, and Bank of Ghana single-digit inflation rates knocked as unrealistic. Rather, the leading world current affairs and economic magazine predict an increase in inflation, from a projected 10.2 percent this year to 10.5 percent next year.

The present government may have brought about significant economic improvements in Ghana, including macroeconomic stability, and (so far) sustained economic growth, but the report is fresh evidence for the potentially regressive impact of the power shortage on these achievements - and fresh warning that Government must not sit on its laurels, but ACT.

On politics, too, the Economist report may make for disconcerted reading. Whilst John Evans Atta Mills, the main opposition party's presidential candidate, is described as "tainted" by links to an administration that has been accused of human rights abuses and economic mismanagement, his National Democratic Congress is praised for its "media-savvy campaign," whilst the ruling New Patriotic Party is issued with some stern words of warning: "There is a danger that the open campaigning by so many NPP figures will appear as an undignified scramble for power and may alienate the electorate," the report advises.

We at The Statesman add our voices to this warning, and point concerned party men in the direction of other observations worthy of their attention. The NPP should stop acting as though whoever wins the flagbearer race will win the general elections, and start thinking about how the party, as a collective, can campaign together to ensure that victory.

Because whilst many within the ruling party have seen the forthcoming 2008 general elections as a foregone conclusion, the Economist report is far less clear on this point: "Overall, we expect the 2008 vote to be reasonably close." Whilst advising against the current battle-for-the-top within the NPP, with 19 candidates currently gunning for the presidential ticket, and the likelihood that the eight Cabinet ministers amongst them will even have to resign their positions in the process, the NDC has been pulling itself together.

Whilst the NPP risks dividing itself and driving wedges between its members over the hotly-contested flagbearer position, the NDC has already completed its flagbearer competition. The national delegates" congress came off last December largely without incident, unlike the violence-strewn affairs of recent years, and the Economist report points to an "apparent unity" within the party as another factor which may act in favour of the NDC, after its eight years in opposition.

The NDC already enjoys an undeniably strong support base in the North and East of the country, as the report points out – across Volta and the three Northern regions – and it will seek to extend this voting base by appealing to the poor 'whom it believes to be excluded by NPP policies’ with social welfare schemes.

Today, The Statesman calls upon the NPP to take these warnings seriously, and to consider seriously the damage it might be doing by concentrating too heavily on picking a candidate for a competition it might not win. 19 candidates at one another’s throats is not the way to win a national election; one strong candidate, backed by a strong party and supported by strong policies which will continue to drive this country forward, and which are being fashioned out even now, is.

In 2004, though President Kufuor won ‘one touch,’ many within his party were somewhat miffed by the victory margin. Mr Kufuor won 52.75% of the vote. Prof Mills gained 44.32% of the vote, which attracted a turnout of 83.2%. But we at The Statesman were happy with the results, for a number of reasons. Most importantly, it served as a timely, useful wake up call to the party’s thinkers. In the run up to the election, many were the predictions of a landslide for the ruling party.

The President’s approval rating was high, there was a general feeling of expectation and, while there were a few bumps along the road, the electorate felt the NPP needed another four years to do a proper comparison of the NDC and the NPP. Yet, the NDC candidate made a strong showing. Clearly, following the NDC’s current attempts to present a more friendly posture, if the ruling party sticks to its policy of a muted portrayal of its achievements, 2008 will be a fight for its political survival. Having a slugfest at the December congress will make that fight no easier.

In every flagbearer competition to far, there has been one clear candidate; Adu Boahen in 1992, John Agyekum Kufuor in 1996 and 2000. Another clear-cut, "one touch" winner, with no run-off elections and no unnecessary strife in the party, is what we must hope for in the December national congress – because the NPP cannot afford to waste time and waste votes by becoming overly engrossed in the leadership congress.

There is the need for the party to unite behind one strong leader at the national congress, first and foremost to send a message to the opposition that the NPP may have its differences, but when it matters most, they can always pick a winner. A clear, one round ballot at the congress will not only project a position of unity and strength; it serves notice of the party’s determination to go into next year’s elections with all electoral guns blazing.