Commercial banks lending rates to fall below 30%- BoG

Commercial banks lending rates in the country are expected to fall below 30 percent, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank.

The survey which was conducted early part of this year reveals that 88.5 percent of firms are very optimistic that that commercial bank lending rates could fall below 30 percent in the medium term, compared to 89.8 percent surveyed in 2012.

Interest rates remained stable in the wake of the Central Bank’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 15 percent due to risks of inflation.

Also, 66.7 percent of surveyed firms were optimistic about industry prospects for 2013 against 75.5 percent in 2012, while 58.6 percent of surveyed firms were more optimistic about growth prospects in 2013, relative to 54.1 percent in 2012. The survey suggested that businesses were more optimistic about company prospects, in particular, capital expenditures, sales, employment, and profits.

Business inflation expectations over the medium-term horizon have also improved. In particular, the proportion of respondents who expect medium-term inflation to remain in single digit improved to 48.3 percent for 2013, from 21.4 percent in 2012.

Business confidence bounced back strongly after an observed softening in business sentiments for six consecutive survey rounds. The observed downturn in business sentiments was influenced mainly by increased volatility in the foreign exchange market and sharp depreciation in the currency during the first half of 2012. Overall, Business Confidence Index improved to 104.1 in December 2012, from 94.3 in September.

The Consumer Confidence Index improved to 105.1 in January 2013 from 101.1 in October 2012. On year- on-year basis, the overall consumer confidence index grew by 8.9 percent over the January 2012 level of 95.5. Consumer sentiments were boosted by a positive outlook on both current and future economic conditions, improvements in household financial situations and relative stability in consumer prices. However, consumers had concerns about employment opportunities.

The December 2012 update of the Bank of Ghana Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) pointed to a moderated pace of economic expansion in the year compared to 2011. The real composite index rose to 340.14 in December 2012 from 318.55 in December 2011, representing a yearly growth of 6.8 percent compared to 14.9 percent for the same period last year.