Danquah Institute Poll

EASTERN, ASHANTI COMPETE TO HEAD NPP WORLD BANK

By DI Research

WORLD BANKS

In Ghana’s Fourth Republic, only the Volta Region and Ashanti Region have earned the title “world banks”; the former for the NDC and the latter for the NPP. However, the Eastern Region is fast becoming an NPP “World Bank” and it is not mere political talk. The voting trends support it. Opinion polls support it.

For three elections held in the fourth republic, the Volta Region has shown that it deserves the accolade NDC World Bank from the outturn of the votes generated (1996: NDC: 690,421representing 95.5%; 2000: NDC: 505,614 representing 84.2%; 2004: NDC: 619,043 representing 84.1%). In those same election years, the Eastern region also established itself as an NPP World Bank (1996: NPP: 827,804 representing 65.7%; 2000: NPP: 950,602 representing 74.7%; 2004: NPP: 1,404,336 representing 77%).

Out of 28 constituencies in Eastern Region in 2004, only 7 were won by Prof. Mills with the rest going for J.A Kufuor of the NPP. Atta-Mills’ least won constituency was Upper West Akim gave him 50.9% (14,396) and his best performing constituency was Afram Plains North 80.9% (19,354).

J.A Kufuor’s least performing constituency was Akwatia 55.9% (20,872) and his best performing constituency was Atiwa 78.8% (26,738). Asuogyaman voted “skirt and blouse” (52.6% Mills, 46.7% Kufuor). Mills winning the presidential but NPP’s Osei Ameyaw winning the parliamentary with 17,806 (51.6%) as against 15,873 (46%) won by Emmanuel Bekoe of the NDC.

Currently 1,391,063 people have registered to vote in the Eastern Region (including those being expunged by the EC).

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

In 1996, the Eastern Region gave NPP 384,597 (45%) and NDC 459,092 (53.8%), showing an 8.8% lead for NDC. Also in 2000, the Eastern Region overturned for NPP giving it 409,635 (54.97%) and NDC 308,047 (41.34%) representing a 13.63% lead for NPP. Comparing 1996 to 2000, NPP made a jump of 21.7%. The elections in 2004 gave Kufuor 554,627 votes (60.2%) and Mills 353,032 (38.38 %) out of a total valid votes cast of 919,733. The difference of votes between Kufuor and Mills was 201,545 (21.82 %).

YEAR NPP NDC DIFFERENCE

1996 45.06 53.8 -8.74%

2000 54.97 41.34 13.63%

2004 60.2 38.38 21.82%

In 2004, NPP had 554,627 (60.3%) as against 353,356 (38.38%), again giving NPP a lead of 21.62%. Between 2000 and 2004, NPP still made a jump of 9% (i.e. 21.62% lead in 2004 minus 13.63% lead in 2000).

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

In the parliamentary results in 1996, NDC won 15 seats as against 11 for NPP. There were 26 seats in 1996. In 2000, NDC lost 7 seats to NPP, giving NPP 18 seats as against 8 seats for the NDC. In 2004, the Abuakwa, Birim North constituencies were divided into Abuakwa North and South and Ofoase Ayirebi and Abirem increasing the number of seats in the Region to 28.

NDC’s seats declined further in 2004, from 8 to 6 and the NPP won four more seats raising its seats to 22.

YEAR NPP NDC TOTAL 1996 11 15 26 2000 18 8 26 2004 22 6 28

OPINION POLLS

Apart from these facts, opinion polls conducted by the Danquah Institute in October gave Nana Akufo-Addo a 68% lead in the Eastern Region, a 8% climb over 2004 presidential results. An earlier poll by Danquah Institute in August gave Nana a win of 61.7%. But Eastern Regional Secretary says they are targeting at least 70% for Presidential and 3 more seats namely Lower Manya, Upper West Akim and one of the Afram Plains Seats, in a strategy dubbed ‘The Eastern Project’.

Mr. Obeng Owusu-Ansah, a resident of Adweso, Koforidua says “the whole of Koforidua is voting NPP because of Nana’s charisma.” “Our water problem is being tackled by the NPP, said Amina Fuseini, a ‘pure water’ seller. For years we were neglected so we are voting for continuity of our water project.”

Ofosu Ampofo, the NDC’s National Organizer, who is contesting the Fanteakwa seat, is going round saying, ‘Vote for Nana but vote for me’. He’s sharing ‘bentua,’ non-iodated salt (‘panyin de pinyin), cutlasses and wellington boots to farmers in and around Begoro.

The NPP strategy on the ground is visitation of zongo communities, provision of street lights, water and schools, and also personal contacts through town hall meetings. This has fostered a bond between the party and the zongo communities and has made nonsense of the notion that the NPP is an elitist party. There’s also promotion of membership.

“At least 200 new members join the party most of whom are the youth”, Alex Agobo, the regional secretary has said.

The Ashanti Region has on the other hand targeted an 80% win for Nana and to annex the Asawase and Ejura Sekyeredumasi to bring their seats to 38 out 0f 39.