Daily Dispatch: Akufo-Addo To Win

Over eight million Ghanaians will go to the polls on Sunday, December 28, 2008 to determine Ghana's next President. The choice is between Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and Professor John Evans Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

In the first round of voting on December 7, 2008, none of the two, gentlemen obtained the mandatory, more than 50% of valid votes cast. As per results from 229 of 230 constituencies, Nana Akufo-Addo had 4,159,439 (49.13%) and Prof. Mills 4,056,634 (47.92%).

Eight years ago, the results of the December 7, 2000 presidential results were inconclusive, regarding a candidate getting beyond the 50%. In those elections, the NPP's John Kufuor had 3,131,739 votes (48.1%) and Prof. Mills - 2,895,575 (44.5%). The difference in votes was 236,164 votes.

In the December 28, 2000 run-off, Kufuor had 3,631,263 (56%) and Prof. Mills gathered 2,750,124 (43.1%). The number of votes gap between them was 811,139.

There are indications that this Sunday's run-off will not record such a high margin of difference. The Daily Dispatch conducted a nationwide opinion polls in July, 2008 and the numbers around that time pointed to the possibility of a run-off in the December 7, 2008 presidential elections.

Consequently, between August and September, 2008, we did opinion polls with the question - "IN THE EVENT OF A RUN-OFF BETWEEN NPP and THE NDC, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?" It was done in a total of 40 constituencies that the People's National Convention (PNC) and Convention People's Party (CPP) did well in the 2004 presidential elections.

The constituencies were:

(a) "Northern Region: (1) Bunkpurugu; (2) Salaga; (3) Chereponi and (4) Mion.

(b) Western Region: (1) Ahanta West; (2) Jomoro; (3) Mpohor Wassa; (4) Ellembele; (5) Evalue Gwira; (6) Prestea/Huni-Valley and (7) Tarkwa-Nsuaem

(c) Volta Region: (1) Central Tongu; (2) Nkwanta North and (3) Krachi West (d) Upper East Region: (1) Bawku Central; (2) Zebilla; (3) Bolgatanga; (4) "Garu/Tempane and (5) Talensi

(e) Upper West Region: (1) Lambussie; (2) Nadowli West; (3) Nadowli East; (4) Sissala East; (5) Sissala West and (6) Wa Central

(f) Central Region: (1) Ajumako/Enyan/Esiam; (2) Awutu¬ Senya; (3) Cape Coast; (4) Gomoa East; (5) KEEA; (6) Mfantseman.East and (7) Mfantseman West (g) Greater Accra: (1) Ablekuma

South; (2) Ayawaso Central; (3) Ayawaso East; (4) Sege; (5) Ada; (6) Abokobi/Madina; (7) Weija and (8) Okaikwei South." ,

On the average, we asked about 100 respondents in each of the 40 constituencies mentioned above and the answers were not decoded until after the December 7, 2008 elections. The results are:

• NPP 48% • NDC 47%, • Undecided 5%

From the above, the NPP has a slight edge in terms of supporters of these two Nkrumahist parties. We asked the questionnaires in polling stations where the PNC and CPP got more than 30% of the votes. It is also likely that the undecided would decide to vote for a party based on the performances of the parliamentary candidates of the NPP and the PNC.

What is likely to swing it for the NPP is that quite a number of their supporters did not turn up on December 7, 2008, mainly in the Eastern Region and to a lesser extent, Ashanti Region.

The gap between Nana Akufo Addo and Prof. Mills, in votes is likely to be around 200,000 votes.

We expect Nana Addo to get around 50.8% and Prof. Mills 49.2%