New Patriotic Party likely to retain Ejisu seat but will struggle to win - Research

Global InfoAnalytics has suggested that while the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is likely to retain the Ejisu seat, victory may not come easily for their candidate, Kwabena Boateng.

The by-election was necessitated by the passing of the Member of Parliament for Ejisu, John Ampontuah Kumah, leading to a keenly contested race between Kwabena Boateng and a former MP for the area, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi.

Despite the National Democratic Congress (NDC) opting not to participate in the race, the contest's dynamics remain intriguing.

Executive Director and Head of Polls for Global InfoAnalytics, Musah Dankwah, revealed in an interview on Citi TV that Kwabena Owusu Aduomi, backed by the NDC's support, poses a significant threat to the NPP's candidate.

According to the latest polling data, Kwabena Boateng holds a narrow lead with 50.6% of the votes, while Kwabena Owusu Aduomi trails closely behind at 47.5%.

“The polls are shocking, indeed very shocking, currently, the NPP is leading by a whisker, less than a margin of error, 50.6% lead in the poll. They are not losing the seat but leading by a margin of error. The lead is not comfortable.

“Kwabena Owusu Aduomi 47.5%. This race is too close to call. What we have seen is that the NPP again is divided, about 64% of NPP voters are voting for their own.

“About 34% are voting for Aduomi. Aduomi is getting 66% of the support from floating voters and he’s getting 92% of NDC support, and 95% of other party supporters. The only advantage the NPP has is that they are leading amongst their own, other than that Aduomi is leading across the board.

“It would have been different if Aduomi hadn’t contested, he’s a threat. NDC guys are rallying behind Aduomi and that is proving very deadly,” he is quoted to have said.

The polls reveal a divided NPP electorate, with approximately 64% supporting their own candidate, Kwabena Boateng.

Meanwhile, according to the report, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi is enjoying strong backing from floating voters, as well as overwhelming support from NDC loyalists and other party supporters.

The Electoral Commission has scheduled April 30, 2024, for the by-election.

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