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General News of Monday, 3 December 2012

Source: Al-Hajj

Ben Ephson’s poll reveals…

NDC Will Win - Corroborates BNI Report of a First Round victory

Latest information available to The Al-Hajj indicates that the National Democratic Congress has once again been highly projected in an opinion survey conducted by renowned pollster, Ben Ephson Jnr to secure a resounding first round victory in the December 7 general elections.

The report by the celebrated Ghanaian pollster who is also the Managing Editor for the Daily Dispatch, which is set to be released this week, paints a positive picture of the prospects of President John Dramani Mahama holding majority of the total votes cast in lock-and- key to secure a resounding victory in the first round of the presidential elections scheduled for Friday.

Mr. Ephson last week released results of polls from 237 out of the 275 constituencies which showed the NDC winning 123 seats and the NPP securing 113 seats with an independent candidate from Bunprugu Yonyon constituency making it to the august house of parliament next year.

This ostensibly means that; with all things been equal, the NDC is likely to remain the party with majority seats in the next parliament whiles the NPP will continue to play its minority role.

Ben Ephson, last Friday on many of the electronic networks made an emphatic statement to the effect that the December 7 election will be won in the first round.

These findings by Ben Ephson, thus corroborates recent opinion poll findings by other independent research outfits like Synovate Ghana; London based Economic Intelligence Unit and the Bureau of National Investigation, which has predicted that the President John Mahama will upstage his close opponent Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party in the first round.

In an official poll finding on the upcoming election, the BNI report predicted a first round victory for President John Mahama with a whopping 53.9% of the total votes cast, with Nana Akufo-Addo bagging a ‘respectable’ 42.2% but warned of possible skirmishes at areas considered to be flash points.

According to the BNI findings, given a minimal error of plus or minus three percent with the ruling party struggling to explain tons of issues relating to the payment of judgment debts and supposed corruption allegations by its founder, Jerry John Rawlings and the opposition and the perceived display of arrogance by some government appointees, President John Mahama will still win the election in the first round.

Among the factors the report cited will contribute to the President's first run victory is his persona, his youthful exuberance, incumbency advantage and most importantly the relatively more than average performance by the Mills/Mahama administration in four years in the areas of infrastructural development, health, education, agriculture etc.

The possibility of attracting heaps of sympathy votes through the death of the late president John Evans Atta Mills and the modest and humane personality traits of both Professor Mills and President John Mahama were also captured in the report as President John Mahama's magic wand to first run victory.

The EIU in a poll has also called the election in favor of the NDC, but maintained that the “elections will be extremely close, however the ruling NDC is arguably the slight favorite” It cited the power of incumbency as an advantage to the NDC, especially in terms of spending the early oil windfall, but added that “this advantage is less pronounced in Ghana than in other African countries, given its history of voters evicting the ruling party in favor of the opposition.”

“A number of recent events have bolstered the ruling NDC's prospects ahead of the December elections. We continue to forecast that the elections will be extremely close, but the NDC is arguably becoming the slight favorite,” the report stated.

In light of the same predictions, Synovate in a poll released recently has also projected the NDC to grab the highest number of total votes cast- 34.2% with the opposition NPP following closely with 31.8%.

The results also pegs the Convention People’s Party at 3.6%, trailing the Progressive People’s Party (PPP) led by Dr Paa Kwesi Nduom, who the survey indicates will manage 5.3% of the votes. The People’s National Convention secured only 1.9% with the other parties obtaining less than one percent of the vote.

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