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Politics of Wednesday, 5 December 2012

Source: The Crystal Clear Lens

Mahama Cruising To Victory With 54%

... Devtrox Poll Pegs Him @ 53.8%
…. Akufo Addo Trails @ 43%
…. Abu Sakara, Kwesi Nduom,
Ayariga and the Rest to Share 3%

The Crystal Clear Lens Political Desk report

There
is a shocking revelation from the latest polls conducted by a political
communication think-tank, DEVTROX, which points at President John Dramani
Mahama cruising to a first round victory with a comfortable 54%. The pollster’s
margin of error is pegged at +/- 1.5%, a prediction which indicates that even
in the worst scenario, the NDC candidate is still assured of a ‘one‘touch
victory’.
As the polls reveal, if the margin of
error is applied downwards, the President will still pick 52.3% of the total
votes to be cast in this Friday’s national elections. The results sighted by
our investigative team, showed that a total number of 4,980 potential voters
were sampled in all the ten regions with the distribution of the rural and
urban voters even.
DEVTROX posited that it used the
Electoral Commission figures on the voter roll for the survey. In applying
scientific research methodology, the think-tank statistically derived its
percentages of potential voters per region using the percentage of voters. For
example in the Ashanti Region, the percentage of voters is pegged at 18.3%
while that of Greater-Accra is 19.3% with Central and Upper West at 8.7% and
2.9%.
The pollster therefore, used simple
quantitative analysis of the national figure of 4,980 of potential voters as
its sample and from which the breakdown reads as follows: Ashanti 915,
Greater-Accra 965, Central Region 435 and Upper West 140 among others. The
measuring instrument deployed was aimed at achieving both reliability and
validity of the results of the survey.
According to the pollster, the results
of this survey with a margin of error of +/- 1.5%, has a very high confidence
level. For the purposes of breaking down
this complex phenomenon of polls and margin of error, we wish to explain that a
margin of error in poll data is the statistical proposition of the likely
difference which might occur in the results due to the inability of the survey
to interview the entire universe (that is, the total voting population of 14
million eligible voters).
In interpreting the poll results, the
pollster argued that it also took into consideration other important components
and factors such as ‘Coverage Error’, and ‘Measurement Error’.
Some
of the questions the team of research assistants asked in the field ranged from
the Economy, the personality characteristics of the candidates, who they can
trust to deliver on promises and the track-record of the candidates. The
results of these wide range of interrogating the personal preferences and an
aggregation of these places John Mahama in pole position to win.
DEVTROX projects a voter turnout of
around 80% which translates into about 11 million voters casting the
ballot. Using statistical variables and
the solid findings from the field it projects a region-by-region outlook for
the NDC candidate as follows:

REGION PERCENTAGE OF VOTES TO BE WON
CENTRAL 57%
WESTERN 50%
BRONG-AHAFO 50%
GREATER-ACCRA 54%
VOLTA 87%
UPPER EAST 70%
EASTERN 49%
NORTHERN 65%
ASHANTI 31%
UPPER WEST 70%

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