New Nationwide Poll Shows Ghanaians Predicting Free & Fair Elections

The Danquah Institute, Ghana’s leading centre for research and political analysis, has conducted a nationwide survey of voters’ intentions ahead of Ghana’s elections in December. The poll has shown that an overwhelming majority – 9 out of 10 Ghanaians – expect this year’s presidential and parliamentary elections to be both free and fair.

Research teams traveled to all ten regions to achieve an accurate sample of 3,483 people. Respondents were asked for their views on what to expect when Ghana goes to the polls in a month’s time.

82% of those surveyed were voters under the age of 44, of whom 41% were in the key 22-32 age range. The proportionate representation from all ten regions and of each age group makes this the most accurate picture yet compiled of the nation’s voting intentions.

For each region, the number of people surveyed was as follows:

Volta – 261 Central – 385 Eastern – 325 Ashanti – 596 Western – 385 Brong Ahafo – 408 Northern – 332 Upper East – 150 Upper West – 105 Greater Accra - 536

The sample size allowed researchers to survey across:

• Constituencies where NPP won the presidential elections in 2004 • Constituencies where NDC won the presidential elections in 2004 • Home constituencies of the 3 main presidential candidates (NPP, NDC, CPP) • Constituencies considered troubled spots • Constituencies where NPP won with close margins e.g Adansi Asokwa • Constituencies with ‘skirt and blouse’ voting pattern e.g Adenta.

The survey’s margin of error is just ?1.66% with a confidence level of 95%

Among other things, the survey constitutes a major vote of public confidence in the work of the Electoral Commission. An overwhelming majority of people have predicted that the elections will be free and fair. Nationwide, 91% of people stated when asked that the elections would be free and fair – that is 3,178 people.

By region, the most confidence in the election being free and fair was shown in the Western Region with 95%, Volta with 94% and Upper West with 93%. The least confidence was shown by the Northern and Brong Ahafo regions each with 89%. Greater Accra, Upper East, Ashanti and Eastern regions showed confidence of up to 91% each whilst Central region displayed a confidence of 90%.