Why the NDC needs an Ashanti flagbearer to win in 2024 - An assessment of the NPP's possible presidential pairings

This article critically looks into the electoral data from the Ashanti Region since 2012 and juxtaposes it with the possible presidential ticket pairings of the NPP ahead of the 2024 elections to suggest ways in which the NDC can navigate its way around a likely NPP dominance in the Ashanti Region in December 2024.

All data and references made can easily be traced to give the reader a more realistic perspective.

(Descending Order) Votes obtained by John Mahama in Election 2020:

Greater Accra – 1,326,489 -
Ashanti – 653,149
Volta – 606,424
Central – 538,829
Northern – 476,550
Eastern – 470,999
Western – 398,549
Upper East – 335,502
Upper West – 238,972
Bono East – 213,694
Bono – 203,329
Western North – 196,556
Oti – 181,021
Savannah – 144,244
Ahafo – 116,485
North East – 112,306 (data extracted from https://ec.gov.gh/2020-presidential-election-results/)

(Descending Order) Votes obtained by John Mahama in Election 2016:

Greater Accra – 946,048
Ashanti – 497,242
Volta – 493,141
Central – 405,262
Eastern – 397,549
Northern – 389,132
Western – 285,938
Upper East – 271,796
Bono East – 189,029
Western North – 169,900
Upper West – 167,032
Bono – 155,488
Oti – 136,257
Savannah – 106,256
Ahafo – 98,272
North East – 92,395 (data extracted from https://ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com/pages/2016/president/)

(Descending Order) Votes obtained by John Mahama in Election 2012:

Greater Accra – 1,125,751
Volta – 579,298
Ashanti – 529,202
Central – 492,374
Eastern – 483,998
Northern – 385,906
Western – 360,542
Upper East – 274,019
Western North – 221,265
Bono East – 211,913
Bono – 189,731
Upper West – 186,134
Oti – 155,343
Ahafo – 109,600
Savannah – 99,413
North East – 85,283 (data extracted from Electoral Commission of Ghana)

Analysis

Evidence from the data displayed above reveals the following;

1. The NDC has gotten more votes in Ashanti Region than in Volta Region over the past 8 years
2. The Ashanti Region has given the NDC the average second highest votes from a single region ever since John Mahama became NDC Flagbearer in 2012.
3. The NDC votes in Ashanti Region have appreciated for the past 8 years while the NDC votes in Volta Region have depreciated for the past 8 years.
4. The NDC is gradually losing foothold of the North.
5. Votes from Ashanti Region decide elections in Ghana.

In a video posted on Facebook by Oyerepa Live (social media handle of Kumasi-based Oyerepa FM/TV) on 12th April 2023 at 1:06PM, Hon Collins Owusu Amankwah (Secretary to Ashanti Regional NPP Security Sub-Committee for 2020) was seen to say that over 517,000 Ashanti Region voters did not vote during the 2020 elections. His argument aligns with intelligence gathered on the grounds prior to the general election in 2020 about how apathy towards the NPP in the region kept growing each day.

As a result, President Akufo-Addo toured the Ashanti Region on three(3) different occasions during his campaign to try everything possible to make amends with the people of the Ashanti Region because a decline in votes in the region was going to heavily affect his electoral fortunes. The NPP pulled 1.7million votes and the NDC pulled 600,000+ votes.

The gap of 1.1million+ votes the NPP obtained in the Ashanti Region did the magic for them and cancelled out all NDC votes in Volta Region and some parts of the Northern Regions and largely contributed to the 500,000+ vote gap between Akufo-Addo and Mahama that eventually won the NPP a second term.

If 517,000+ voters did not vote in 2020, a careful study of Ghana’s electoral data makes it safe to claim that the figure may increase in 2024, because it will be the end of an 8-year reign and the regime fatigue will engender voter apathy towards the ruling party across the country.

How does the NPP intend to salvage this situation?

The frontrunners of the NPP Flagbearer race are Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and Alan Kyerematen with Kennedy Agyapong strongly emerging as a third force. However it is most likely that either Dr Bawumia or Alan Kyerematen will emerge as NPP Presidential Candidate for 2024.

Names very likely to emerge as running mate to Dr Bawumia are Dr Matthew Opoku Prempeh (MP Manhyia South), Dr Yaw Adutwum (MP Bosomtwe) and Osei Kyei Mensah Bonsu (MP Suame) – all purely Ashanti people and popular politicians in the region. Dr Bawumia clearly will want to win back the 517,000+ voters through his running mate and also satisfy the Ashanti people who have not been represented on the NPP ticket since President Kufuor’s exit. Any of these three potential running mates have the clout to mobilize and effectively re-organize the Ashanti Region to deliver massively for the NPP in 2024.

Alan Kyerematen is a pure Ashanti person himself. His father, Dr Alexander Atta Yaw Kyerematen was once the Town Clerk to the Kumasi Municipal Council i.e a modern day Mayor of Kumasi. As an anthropologist, Alan’s father set up the Ghana National Culture Centre in Kumasi which is cherished dearly by the Ashanti people.

There is a statue of his father at the Cultural Center that is widely known and used as reference to Alan Kyerematen. His mother was born and bred in Ejisu, one of the most important towns in Ashanti culture and history. Alan is a through and through Ashanti.

Alan Kyerematen’s emergence as NPP Flagbearer therefore does the NPP a lot of good electorally.

It is rumored that Dr Bawumia may settle on Alan Kyerematen as his running mate if he (Bawumia) wins the primaries as an antidote to the bitterness and sabotage that is anticipated if Alan does not emerge and also to present a more united NPP for the election, unlike the 2008 scenario. That ticket also solidly rallies Ashanti Region behind the NPP ahead of the election.

How must the NDC respond?

Votes obtained in Ashanti Region by the NDC sharply dropped from 529,202 in 2012 to 497,242 in 2016 i.e a 30,000+ vote decline.

Though the sharp decline across the country in 2016 is largely attributed to apathy, several political research exercises have revealed that Ghanaians are still not ready to accept the John Mahama brand, but are comfortable with voting the NDC into power. Top political scientists posit that the John Mahama factor was the NDC’s undoing in the 2020 polls.

They say NDC’s votes appreciated marginally due to the fact that many Ghanaians were disappointed with the NPP’s poor governance, but the fact that John Mahama was to become President again if the NDC was elected did not sit well with a larger sect of voters.

The possible NPP pairings as explained earlier clearly make a Mahama candidature a huge liability to the NDC in the Ashanti Region come 2024 such that even if his running mate was Ashanti, it will be difficult to challenge the NPP for the 517,000+ lost votes.

It is expected that the NPP will shift focus from the NDC Ashanti running mate and make John Mahama the center of their campaign in the region to whip up the bitter sentiments.

The only way the NDC can mount a challenge in the Ashanti Region is to present an Ashanti flagbearer to diffuse the ground swell of support that will come along for the NPP Ashanti candidate/running mate.

This is because the popular talk of “one of our own” will not be significant anymore. And with Mahama out of the picture, a large number of the 517,000+ voters and the general population will be comfortable to vote an NDC President who is their brother.

All polls conducted since 2021, prominent among them being the EIU (Economic Intelligence Unit) poll suggests that Ghanaians will vote for an NDC ticket that does not have John Mahama on it.

The NDC must make a conscious effort to deflate the NPP’s possible dominance of the Ashanti Region in the 2024 general election.