Re-run of 2012 polls likely – EIU report

The June Report of the Economic Intelligence Unit has predicted that the Supreme Court hearing the 2012 presidential election petition “will certainly find issues with the vote.”

This prediction runs contrary to the group’s earlier prediction in its March 2013 report which claimed that the Supreme Court was likely to uphold the presidential result, given what it called “lack of alleged evidence of systematic malpractice.”

The group had even said the petitioners did not have any solid evidence to prove their case, and that it was not likely that the president could not be removed from office through the election petition filed by three leading members of the NPP.

However, in what appears to be a sharp u-turn, the latest report of the EIU has stated that the Supreme Court “has the power to remove Mr. Mahama from the presidency and call for fresh elections.”

Under this scenario, the EIU predicts that: “Ghana could build on its democratic record as it is unprecedented for an African court to find against an incumbent president in an election dispute. Nevertheless, a new election would be tense as the widely publicised court case has appeared to polarise views.”

The report further noted that President Mahama would certainly face a huge challenge to retain power in a re-run of the election because of the hot challenge he will face from Nana Akufo-Addo, the 2012 presidential candidate of the NPP, as well as the economic conditions prevailing in the country.

“Mr. Mahama would face a stiff challenge from the NPP in an election rerun, especially because the early part of his new term in office has faced a number of challenges, amid rising inflation, labour disputes and poor fiscal management,” the EIU report noted.

The report also noted that the legal challenge to the 2012 presidential election would not worsen Ghana’s political stability significantly, adding that it was becoming clearer that it would be the reaction of the losing side that is potentially more important than the actual verdict itself.

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