IC Research has projected that Ghana’s local currency, the cedi, could close the year at GH¢11.45 to the US dollar on the interbank market.

The firm anticipates improved price discovery in the coming months, as exchange rates in the foreign exchange market are allowed to converge.

“While we continue to expect the interbank USD/GHS rate to end 2025 below our estimated fair value, we reiterate the possibility of a gradual rise toward our revised full-year midpoint forecast of GH¢10.95/USD, with an upper bound of GH¢11.45/USD,” the report stated.

According to the Bank of Ghana, the cedi is currently trading at GH¢10.43 to the dollar on the interbank market, while retail market rates exceed GH¢12.00, reflecting a notable divergence.

IC Research also highlighted that, although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended the Bank of Ghana for its efforts to stabilise prices and the exchange rate, the IMF Board has expressed concern over the Central Bank’s continued heavy intervention in the forex market.

“Our estimates show year-to-date FX sales of US$4.6 billion on the interbank market by the Bank of Ghana as of July 7, 2025. This has occurred alongside the accumulation of forex reserves, driven by a strategic adjustment to the domestic gold purchase programme,” the report added.

It further explained that this strategy has contributed to the widening gap between the interbank rate of GH¢10.35 and retail market levels above GH¢12.00, with the latter aligning more closely with IC Research’s estimated fair value of GH¢12.20 to the dollar.

SP/MA

How Virtual Reality is enhancing business and customer experience