Politics of Tuesday, 30 November 2004
... He is in a 51.6% lead
... Margin of error ? 1.5%
...Swings in Greater Accra and Central Regions
...Volta, Upper East, Upper West and Northern Regions solid
... A better show in Ashanti Region
... 125-128 parliamentary seats for NDC
... Editor Bruce-Quansah for Parliament
... Christie Churcher to fall.
A survey carried out by Ghana Palaver has shown that the NDC's Presidential candidate, Professor John Evans Atta Mills, will win the December 7 election on the first ballot with about 51.6 per cent of the popular votes. The survey's margin of error is 1.5 per cent, showing that Prof. Mills will have a minimum of 50.1 per cent and a maximum of 53.1 per cent of the popular votes.
The survey, with a sample size of 9200, was carried out in all the ten regions with 40 respondents per constituency.
According to the results of the survey, there will be significant swings in the Greater Accra and Central regions from the NPP to the NDC. In the Greater Accra region, Prof. Atta Mills is likely to win about 58 per cent of the votes, while the Central region will give about 55 per cent of the popular votes to the NDC Presidential candidate.
The Volta, Upper East, Upper West and Northern regions remain a solid bloc for the NDC!
Prof. Mills is likely to pull about 30 per cent of the popular votes in the Ashanti region.
The Western region is likely to split between the NDC and the NPP.
The Eastern region remains an NPP stronghold, while the Brong Ahafo region remains a battleground. It may swing either way with the NPP having a slight edge over the NDC.
In the parliamentary elections, the survey indicates that the NDC will win between 125 and 128 seats. The NDC is likely to win about 70 per cent of the seats in the Greater Accra region and about 60 per cent in the Central region.
Palaver Editor Bruce Quansah will defeat the NPP's Stephen Asamoah Boateng in the battle for the Mfantsiman West seat. Mankessim town remains an NPP stronghold. Saltpond and Ankaful will split their votes between the NDC and the NPP. Bruce Quansah will win in the traditional NDC strongholds of Anomabu, Biriwa and Abeadze Dominase.
With most votes from students of tertiary institutions likely to go to NDC candidates, Christie Churcher may be on the last lap of her run as the Member of Parliament for Cape Coast. She will fall to Lawyer Barton Oduro.