Ghana faces a potentially severe climate shock in the coming season, with the CVF-V20 Secretariat warning of a high probability of a very strong El Niño and urging the government to put contingency financing arrangements in place before the crisis hits.

Managing Director of the CVF-V20 Secretariat, Sara Jane Ahmed, issued the warning at an Inter-Ministerial and Agency Technical Working Group Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainability in Accra on September 1, 2026.

According to Ahmed, the latest climate information being assessed by the Climate Vulnerable Forum and V20 Finance Ministers points to a high probability of a very strong El Niño over the coming season.

She said although the precise effects would vary across countries and regions, the likelihood of increased climate volatility should already be shaping Ghana’s contingency planning.

“The possibility of heightened climate volatility should already inform contingency planning and ensure that financing arrangements can be activated quickly when shocks occur,” she said.

The warning comes as Ghana continues to build mechanisms to protect vulnerable communities from the financial consequences of floods, droughts and other climate-related disasters.

Ahmed said Ghana is eligible for premium support through the Global Shield against Climate Risks to establish parametric flood insurance protection for the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area.

Under the proposed arrangement, the Global Shield could cover 90 percent of the insurance premium in the first year and 50 percent in the second year, subject to Ghana providing the required co-financing through the national budget.

The proposed insurance would provide pre-arranged financing once predetermined rainfall or flood-severity thresholds are reached.

This would allow the Ministry of Finance and the National Disaster Management Organisation to respond more quickly to affected communities, particularly vulnerable households in low-income and informal settlements across the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area.

The announcement is significant for Greater Accra, where flooding has repeatedly disrupted businesses, homes and livelihoods and placed additional pressure on public finances.

Ghana has already received payouts under a similar climate-risk financing arrangement.

Ahmed disclosed that Ghana purchased its first sovereign parametric drought insurance policy with premium support from the Global Shield Support Package (GSSP).

Following severe drought conditions, the policy was triggered in February and April 2025, resulting in approximately US$3 million in payouts.

The funds supported affected communities through food assistance, seeds and other response measures.

Ghana has also received US$1 million through the V20 Loss and Damage Funding Programme for the Akosombo Loss and Damage Funding Programme in the North Tongu District, currently ongoing.

The programme is supporting communities affected by the Akosombo Dam spillage, including the construction of 36 housing units and other climate-resilient support measures.

But Ahmed said Ghana’s bigger challenge is closing what she described as the “missing middle” between climate policy and actual implementation.

She said Ghana has strong national climate strategies, but these do not automatically translate into investment-ready programmes.

“Priorities must be sequenced and costed; projects identified and prepared; financing structures developed; risks identified and mitigated; and the institutions responsible for policy, investment, finance and delivery brought together around a common pipeline,” she said.

Ghana’s updated Climate Prosperity Plan has been validated and is currently undergoing internal approval processes.

The plan is expected to provide the economic, investment and financing framework for translating Ghana’s climate and development ambitions into actual investments.

Ahmed said Ghana has also secured an initial US$100,000 in Spark Plug support from the Country Platforms Hub to establish foundational structures for its Country Platform.

The platform is intended to bring together sector ministries and agencies, civil society organisations, financial institutions, development partners and the private sector to facilitate delivery of climate-related investments.

Ahmed also announced that the CVF-V20 is advancing the Lifeline Fund, a proposed US$1.4 billion financial arrangement designed to provide rapid liquidity when climate shocks such as floods and droughts create balance-of-payment pressures.

The fund has an initial operational target of US$500 million, with CVF-V20 members seeking to provide 60 percent of its capitalisation.

Ghana is expected to participate in the initiative.

Ahmed further highlighted the Vulnerability to Viability, or V2V, Compact launched by the CVF-V20 and development-finance institutions in June.

The initiative seeks to address a major financing problem facing vulnerable economies, particularly the mismatch between the long economic life of infrastructure in sectors such as water, health and education and the relatively short maturity of debt used to finance them.

The compact is designed to improve the affordability, accessibility, tenure and predictability of financing while expanding project preparation, mobilising private capital through blended finance and risk-sharing instruments, and developing financing tools that can respond quickly to climate shocks.

For Ghana, the immediate issue may be whether these financing mechanisms can be operationalised before the next major climate event rather than after the damage has already occurred.

The CVF-V20 Secretariat said it would continue working with the government to mobilise technical and financial support to strengthen Ghana’s resilience, protect development gains and advance long-term prosperity.