CPP's Akosa edges ahead of NPP and NDC

With the NPP and CPP primaries less than 2 months away, the front runners Professor Agyeman Badu Akosa and Alhaji Aliu Mahama have widen their lead in their respective races for their party’s flag bearer ship nominations, according to the latest Ghana Youth Movement poll for Reporters without Borders.

In the New Patriotic Party contest, Aliu Mahama leads Nana Akuffo Addo, 34 – 30 percent, with former Trade Minister Alan Kyeremanten coming in third with 15 percent. The rest lags behind in single digits.

Aliu Mahama’s 4 point lead over Akuffo Addo is quite interesting, since Mahama is seen more as a calming figure within the NPP than bad tempered Akuffo Addo. Nana Akuffo Addo’s ratings have stagnated since June 2007, said Reporters without Borders pollster Neil Addison, who conducted this survey with Ghana Youth Movement pollster Ato Kwamena Enchill.

Addison compared Aliu Mahama to a golf ball that’s flying over his opponents. However Aliu’s biggest obstacle is Professor Agyeman Badu Akosa. Akosa is 15 percent points ahead of Professor Attah Mills 45 – 30 percent and poor Aliu at 25 percent.

In the NPP flag bearer ship race, Enchill asserts that Nana Addo Danquah Akuffo Addo’s rating is stagnant whilst Aliu’s rising. He said Aliu’s campaign is becoming more effective than Akuffo Addo’s. Addison added that NPP delegates do not trust Akuffo Addo; especially his temperament is seen as suspect. According Addison one voter stated that, “Nana Addo need to attend anger management course if he is to stand any chance of beating Professor Akosa, seen as the next President of Ghana”.

In the CPP flag bearer ship contest, Akosa’s lead over his closest rival, Dr Osafo, is 50 – 30 percent, with Papa Kwesi Nduom, in third with 10 points. The rest are on single digit points.

Akosa’s 20- point advantage over Osafo among the CPP members and 10 –point over Alhaji Aliu Mahama is attracting more supporters to his camp. By contrast NPP primary continues to be dodged by corruption scandal after scandal, with Kwamena Bartel’s corruption scandal being the latest to hit the party, Ato Kwamena Enchill says, “one does not get the sense that much is happening, apart from the corruption tag”.

Akosa’s score in this current poll is an improvement from last week’s survey. One potential problem for Akosa and Osafo is the position of Papa Kwesi Nduom, particularly among CPP voters. There are concerns among supporters of Akosa and Osafo that Nduom is using money to buy off delegates, with some pointing to the long hands of NPP to ensure CPP remains divided.

According to James Bomfeh (campaign strategist for Professor Akosa and a dynamic youth leader in Ghana) Professor Akosa’s advice to voters is “take the money they offer you, but vote with your conscience and vote for the right candidate” is sinking in. Bomfeh said Ghanaians are now wiser and more aware of the massive corruption going on in government. He warned the ruling party not to think of “rigging the elections”. Bomfeh assured Ghanaian voters that in December 2008 elections, “every vote cast counts and every cast vote will be counted”.

According to the pollsters 87% of all voters agree with that view. Addison said a warning sign for Aliu is that he trails both Akosa and Attah Mills in potential general election match ups, even though his campaign bills him as the most electable NPP candidate in their primaries.

Akosa tops Aliu Mahama in the poll, 45 – 25 percent, while Attah Mills bests him, 35 – 20 percent.

This poll and others points to a very interesting elections come December 2008. The poll was conducted among 1200 adults (face to face), aged 18+, October 22 – 24 across all the 10 regions. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.