GhanaWeb Feature by Ishmael Batoma:

The New Patriotic Party (NPP), Ghana's largest opposition political party, announced on August 11, 2025, that it would not be participating in the upcoming parliamentary by-election for the Tamale Central constituency.

The by-election was necessitated by the tragic death of the Member of Parliament (MP), Dr Ibrahim Murtala Mohammed, in a helicopter crash on August 6, 2025, which claimed the lives of eight Ghanaians.

The party stated that its National Steering Committee made the decision to withdraw from the Tamale Central by-election, a seat held by the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC), based on several factors.

One of the reasons was the “belief that it would be inhumane and unconscionable to subject the nation to a competitive process in search of a replacement for the departed MP” and to also “ensure a smooth and peaceful replacement for the good people of Tamale Central,” as a tribute to the departed MP.

EC sets September 30 for Tamale Central by-election

Following the move by the New Patriotic Party, a section of the public, mostly proponents of the party, including its leading members, have called on the NDC to also withdraw from the Akwatia by-election, whose seat became vacant due to the demise of NPP MP Ernest Yaw Kumi, based on the same reasons listed for Tamale Central.

Nevertheless, the ruling NDC rebuffed these calls.

Should the NDC have heeded the calls for their withdrawal from the Akwatia by-election? Or was there a hidden reason for the NPP’s withdrawal from the Tamale Central by-election, which was not stated in the party’s press statement?

This article analyses the history of parliamentary elections in these two constituencies to ascertain the ‘true reason(s)’ for the decision made by the two leading political parties in Ghana.

History of Tamale Central Parliamentary Elections:

The Tamale Central Constituency was created prior to the 2004 general elections and thus has seen six general elections.



The data shows that the constituency has seen only NDC MPs since its creation. Alhassan Wayo Seini was the constituency's first MP after winning the seat in 2004. He was followed by Inusah Abdulai Bistav Fuseini, who won the 2008, 2012, and 2016 parliamentary elections. Then came the late Dr Ibrahim Murtala Mohammed, who won the 2020 and 2024 elections.



The data shows that the NDC has been consistent in retaining the seat. Its worst performance was when it won with fewer than 10,000 votes in the 2020 election.



Past by-election in Tamale Central:

There was a by-election in Tamale Central in 2006 when the sitting National Democratic Congress MP for the constituency, Prof Alhassan Wayo Seini, decided to quit the party and cross over to the New Patriotic Party.

The NPP did not contest in this by-election. Prof Wayo Seini, who said he was going to do all he could to go back to the NPP, where he served as the National Vice Chairman, contested as an independent candidate, but he lost badly. He was beaten by the NDC’s Inusah Abdulai Bistav Fuseini.



History of Akwatia Parliamentary Elections:

The Akwatia Constituency has had representation in the House since the 1st Parliament of the 4th Republic of Ghana. This implies that the constituency has had 9 parliamentary elections.

Data shows that, contrary to assertions that Akwatia is a stronghold of the NPP, the parliamentary election in Akwatia is very competitive. Out of the 9 elections held, the NPP has won 5, while the NDC has won 4.



The NDC’s Gilbert Kwasi Agyei won the 1992 election, which was boycotted by the NPP. The NDC won the Akwatia seat again in 1996 with Alhaji Mohammed Erzuah Siam.

The NPP, represented by Kinston Akomeng Kissi, took the Akwatia seat in 2000. Kinston Akomeng Kissi retained the seat for the NPP in 2004. The party again won the seat in 2008 with Kofi Asare as their candidate.

NDC’s Baba Jamal ousted the NPP candidate in the 2012 election. In the 2016 election, the NPP retook the seat with Mercy Adu-Gyamfi as their candidate. NDC’s Henry Boakye won the seat back for his party in 2020. The late Ernest Kumi won the seat for the NPP in 2024.



The election results show that parliamentary elections in Akwatia have historically been keenly contested between the NDC and the NPP.

The largest victory of the NDC in an election both parties contested was in 1996 — 9,325 votes, while the NPP’s largest victory was in 2016 — 5,528.



‘We thank you for withdrawing from Tamale Central by-election but we are contesting Akwatia’ - Nketiah

Conclusion

The analysis above shows that it would have been nearly impossible for the NPP to win the Tamale Central by-election, which is slated for September 30, 2025.

History shows that this is not the first time the NPP has boycotted a by-election in Tamale Central.

In addition to the reason the party gave for its withdrawal from the pending by-election, it is safe to say that the NPP pulled out of the election because it was a near-impossible task.

The Akwatia seat, on the other hand, is more competitive and can be described as a swing seat, as the data shows.

Both parties have won the seat in the past, and the NDC pulling out of it would have been a wrong political move.

Compared to the Tamale Central 2024 election, where the NDC won by a margin of over 35,000 votes, the NPP won the Akwatia seat with only 2,063.

Being the party in power, the NDC would rightly have the confidence of overturning these 2,000 votes.