18 African countries go to the polls in 2024: An analysis of countries involved, contenders, expectations and implications on the continent

The year 2024 is a remarkably important political year for 18 African countries, which form almost 35% of the African continent, to be engaged in elections. The year marking over three decades of the wave of democratization in Africa has come with a test of the democratic credentials of these states.

The countries that will be engaged in elections in 2024 include Algeria, Botswana, Chad, Comoros, Ghana, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Senegal, Somaliland, South Africa, South Sudan, Tunisia, Togo, Mali*, and Burkina-Faso*.

The progression of democracy has seen some dramatic downturns since 2020, with patches of coups in some African countries, including Niger, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Mali, Guinea and Gabon.

These events have recalibrated the democratic consolidation efforts of these states, thereby making the case for stability and human security a puzzle in Africa. The renewed zeal for elections in Africa in 2024 will therefore be an opportunity for African states to be able to test their democratic pores while fostering democratic resilience with a commitment to non-violent means of ending electoral disputes before, during, and after polls.

The relevance of this article also lies in the fact that the most important democracies in Africa will have elections in 2024, including countries like South Africa, Ghana, Senegal, Botswana, Mauritius, and Tunisia. This article presents a profile of the various states that will be holding elections in 2024, the stakes, and possible expectations.

Mali and Burkina Faso, who have witnessed a series of coups as part of their transitional plan into a democratic regime, have not shown the political will to conduct the elections in 2024. The stakes are not clear as to the possibility of elections in these two states.

1. COMOROS (January, 2024)

Elections in Comoros are expected to be held on 14th January 2024. Comoros is a small archipelago of islands in the Indian Ocean, located between Madagascar and Mozambique. It has a history of political instability, coups, and secessionist movements.

It has a relatively small population of 859,834 people. President Azali Assoumani of the Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC) party won the 2019 elections for the Comoros. He has brought several constitutional changes that have received criticism from the opposition, which has largely boycotted the previous elections. The reforms by Azali have annulled the rotation of the presidency between the country's three main islands; Anjouan, Grande Comore, and Mohéli.

Electoral Profile

The island state operates a unicameral legislative system with 24 members who are directly elected. The main political party is the Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC); the rest of the candidates are usually independent candidates.

Previous elections

The March 2019 elections have been criticized as having been marred with irregularities and a boycott by the major opposition. Azali Assoumani of the CRC secured 96,635 votes, representing 60.77% of the total valid votes cast, while Mahamoud Ahamada, an independent candidate, secured 23,233 votes, representing 14.61%, and Mouigni Baraka Saïd Soilihi got 5.57% of the total votes cast.

Expectations from the January 2024 Presidential elections
The January 14 election in Comoros will come off without criticism of some voter irregularities, yet there is an expectation of calm. The demands of the major

result, the elections may see Azali come out victorious despite these criticisms. He has the backing of the security forces and international support.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

1. Azali Assoumani, the incumbent president and leader of the Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC), who is seeking a third term in office.

2. Salim Issa Abdillah, the leader of the Juwa Party. He is the main opposition figure and has the backing of former president Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi, who is under house arrest.

3. Mouigni Baraka, the former governor of Grande Comore and leader of the Democratic Rally of the Comoros (RDC).

4. Daoudou Abdallah Mohammed is the leader of the Orange Party and a former Minister of Interior.

5. Aboudou Soefo is the leader of the Tsasi movement in Comoros and a former Minister of Foreign Affairs.


2. SENEGAL (February, 2024)

Senegal is expected to go to the polls in February 2024.
The West African country has a population of about 17.8 million people. Senegal has received accolades for progressively developing its democratic system, as evidenced by several democratic turnovers among political parties.

The suppression of opposition parties and candidates characterized the previous elections in 2019, barring Ousmane Sonko of the Patriots of Senegal for Ethics, Work, and Fraternity (PASTEF) party from competitively contesting the incumbent president, Macky Sall, who was seeking a second term.

Sall has shelved the idea of amending the Senegalese constitution to extend his grip on power as a result of a series of violent protests by citizens and opposition members. Senegal is a presidential system with the powers of the head of state and head of government within the remit of the president. The president exercises power within a 5-year term limit with two maximum bids.

Electoral Profile

Senegal operates a unicameral legislative system with 165 seats at the National Assembly. Members are elected for a 5-year term, with 112 members elected through a single-member district system, while 53 seats are elected through proportional representation.

The major political parties in Senegal include the ruling United in Hope (BBY) coalition, the Liberate the People coalition, Wallu Sénégal, the Party for Unity and Rally, and Rewmi.

Previous elections (2019)

In the 2019 presidential elections in Senegal, Macky Sall of the APR emerged victorious with 2.5 million votes, representing 58.26%, followed by Idrissa Seck of Rewmi, who secured 899,556 votes, representing 20.51%, while Ousmane Sonko of the Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF) received 687,523 votes, representing 15.67%.

Expectations from the 2024 Presidential elections

The expectation is that Ousmane Sonko may have the chance to contest the election despite facing challenges with filing his nominations after winning a legal battle to get his name on the ballot paper. His supporters are among the youth who believe in his radical and populist approach, preaching for the creation of jobs for the youth.

The exit of Macky Sall from the electoral scene will introduce the prime minister, Amadou Ba, but may face challenges in consolidating power. The presence of others The expectation is that Ousmane Sonko may have the chance to contest the election despite facing challenges with filing his nominations after winning a legal battle to get his name on the ballot paper.

His supporters are among the youth who believe in his radical and populist approach, preaching for the creation of jobs for the youth. The exit of Macky Sall from the electoral scene will introduce the prime minister, Amadou Ba, but may face challenges in consolidating power.

The presence of other competitive opposition members, including Iddrissa Seck and Aminata Touré, may push the election into a run-off all things being equal. The election will come without violence, as the political scene in Senegal has created an anti-French sentiment among sections of the population.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

1. Amadou Ba, the current prime minister and the candidate of the ruling coalition, the Alliance for the Republic (APR).

2. Idrissa Seck is the leader of the Rewmi party and the runner-up in the 2019 presidential election.

3. Ousmane Sonko, the leader of the opposition party, Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF), is currently in prison on various charges.

4. Khalifa Sall, the former mayor of Dakar and the candidate of the Movement for Socialist Transformation (MTS).

5. Karim Wade is the son of former president Abdoulaye Wade and the candidate of the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS)

3. SOUTH AFRICA (May-August, 2024)

South African elections are expected to come off between May and August 2024. The Country is located at the southern tip of Africa and is considered one of the largest economies on the continent with international influence.

It has a population of about 60 million people. South Africa practices a pure parliamentary system where the ruling party or coalition appoints the president, and the legislature has the power to suspend the president upon losing the confidence of the majority in the legislative house.

The president has a maximum of two terms with a five-year duration and runs concurrently with the duration of the legislative body. In 2018, Jacob Zuma, who had resigned as president, was replaced by Cyril Ramaphosa, the leader of the ruling African National Congress (ANC), as acting president until an election was held in 2019 to affirm the presidency of Ramaphosa.

Electoral Profile

South Africa is a multiparty democracy that operates a bicameral legislative system with the upper house consisting of 90 members, the National Council of Provinces, who are elected by provincial legislatures. There are 400 seats in the lower house, known as the National Assembly, who are elected through a party list proportional representation.

The major political parties in South Africa include the ruling African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+).

Previous elections

The May 2019 elections in South Africa saw a dramatic decrease in the votes of the ruling ANC, despite their victory. The ANC won by 230 seats, representing 57.5%; the DA secured 84 seats with 20.8%; the EFF won 44 seats; the IFP secured 14 seats; and the FF+ won 10 seats, while the rest of the 18 seats were shared among some smaller political parties.

Expectations from the 2024 elections

The electoral stakes are high in South Africa, as the governing ANC has considerably seen a nose dive in support from previous elections. The challenges being faced by the government may cost the ANC a further decrease in support, to about 48%. The biggest opposition party, the DA, which is a majority white party, seeks to wrestle power away from the ANC.

Its support may increase comparatively, yet it may need to form a stronger alliance with smaller parties to make that possible. However, historical records of partnerships and alliances have not been possible with the DA. The radical left party, the EFF, seeks to also increase its seats and may end up ANC with its current move against Israel. Political violence is apparent, yet it may not overshadow the electoral process.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

1. The African National Congress (ANC), the dominant party since 1994, is led by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

2. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party, is led by John Steenhuisen.

3. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a radical left-wing party led by Julius Malema.

4. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), a Zulu nationalist party, is led by Velenkosini Hlabisa.

5. The Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus), a right-wing party led by Pieter Groenewald.

4. RWANDA (July, 2024)

Elections in Rwanda are expected in July 2024. Rwanda is located in the east-central part of Africa. It is a landlocked country that has a history of unfortunate genocide, ethnic conflict, and civil war. The country has a population of 14.2 million people.

Rwanda has practiced a de facto one-party system since the end of the genocide and the civil war in 1994. The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), led by President Paul Kagame, has ruled the country till date. Rwanda has seen enviable economic and social stability but has not fully developed its liberal democratic outlook.

Surveillance, arbitrary detention, and the silencing of dissent have been persistent. The Elections in Rwanda are expected in July 2024. Rwanda is located in the east-central part of Africa. It is a landlocked country that has a history of unfortunate genocide, ethnic conflict, and civil war. The country has a population of 14.2 million people.

Rwanda has practiced a de facto one-party system since the end of the genocide and the civil war in 1994. The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), led by President Paul Kagame, has ruled the country till date. Rwanda has seen enviable economic and social stability but has not fully developed its liberal democratic outlook.

Surveillance, arbitrary detention, and the silencing of dissent have been persistent. The country practices a pure presidential system with the powers to appoint the prime minister and also to dissolve its legislative body by the president.

5. TUNISIA (October, 2024)

The North African country will be going to the polls in October 2024. Tunisia has a population of 12.5 million people. It interestingly shares borders with Algeria to the west. The Arab Spring has brought enormous changes to the democratic systems in Tunisia.

It is usually regarded as the only successful democracy that emerged out of the Arab Spring. This does not annul the democratic challenges it faces. Tunisia is also

known as the hometown of the Arab Spring, which was a series of political and civil protests in response to economic stagnation and corruption. This wave of political shocks affected countries including Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain directly, and its after-shocks have led to the rise of terrorism in the Sahel region.

The Arab Spring led to the ouster of the longtime head of state, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. Tunisia has enjoyed multiparty democratic elections under the 2014 constitution. Tunisia practices a semi-presidential system where the president is the head of state elected by popular votes from the citizens, while the prime minister is elected by the party that controls the majority in its legislative assembly.

The current President is Kaïs Saïed, who came to power in October 2019 following the demise of President Beji Caid Essebsi in July 2019. The Presidency of Saïed has come under critical criticism over the overhaul in constitutional powers that has arrogated his powers within the legislative assembly and partly the judiciary. He has also influenced the electoral management body of Tunisia, which may have enormous influence in consolidating his power in this year’s election.

Electoral Profile

Tunisia, under the 2014 constitution, runs a two-time presidential bid system with a five-year term. The country runs a unicameral legislative system known as the Assembly of the Representatives of the People (ARP) with 217 members.

The major political parties include the Heart of Tunisia Party, Democratic Current, Tunisia Forward, Long Live Tunisia and other independent candidates. The ruling president was an independent candidate in the 2019 elections.

Previous Presidential Elections (2019)

In the 2019 elections, there were 26 presidential candidates; this pushed the election into a run-off as no candidate was able to secure more than 50% plus 1 vote of the total votes cast. The run-off took place between the top two contenders, Nabil Karoui of the Heart of Tunisia, who was able to secure 27.29% of the votes cast during the run-off, and independent candidate Kaïs Saïed, who won with 72.71%.

Expectations from the 2024 polls

The constitutional reforms, which were backed by a referendum, will change the political landscape of Tunisia. It will have serious consequences for the outcome of the election, as the constitution may prevent some strong candidates from the 2019 elections from running for the top seat, including Nabil Karoui of the Heart of Tunisia. Migration will be one of the issues to address during the electoral campaign due to the crisis between Hamas and Israel.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

The constitutional reforms have made it largely unclear the exact number of candidates, as Saïed is said to have seized power as a result. Most candidates who would have brought competition to Saïed have faced criminal trials, including:

1. Rached Ghannouchi: The leader of Ennahda, the Islamist party that had the largest bloc in the suspended parliament.

2. Abir Moussi: The leader of the Free Destourian Party, a secular and nationalist party that is the main opposition force in the suspended parliament.

3. Youssef Chahed: A former Prime Minister and the leader of Tahya Tounes, a centrist and liberal party that is the second largest force in the suspended parliament.

6. MAURITANIA (June, 2024)

Mauritania will have elections on 22nd June 2024 to elect its next set of leaders to govern the northwestern African country. The country has a population of 4.8 million people. Mauritania operates a semi-presidential system, with the President as the head of state and also appoints the Prime Minister who performs government duties.

Since its independence in 1960, the country has faced several coups. The 2019 election is said to have been the most successful democratic turn-over for Mauritania, as former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz handed over to Mohamed Ould Ghazouani.

Electoral Profile

The top position is a two-time bid limit with a five-year term. It has a single legislative body known as the National Assembly with 157 seats that are directly elected in pursuance of constitutional reforms of 2017.

The major political parties in Mauritania include the ruling Insaf party, previously known as the Union for the Republic, the Union of the Forces of Progress, and the rest are independent candidates.

Previous Presidential Election 2019

The 2019 election in Mauritania had four presidential candidates, the Union of the Republic led by Mohamed Ould Ghazouani won by 52%, the Union of the Forces of Progress led by Mohamed Ould Maouloud secured 2.44%, and the rest were independent candidates. The close contender for the presidency was an antislavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, who secured 18.5% of the total votes cast.

Expectations from the June 2024 polls in Mauritania
Provided there will be no political unrest or civil upheaval, the incumbent president may secure another term to complete his two terms. The role of the military and religious bodies may play a vital role in the outcome of the election.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, former General and, President of Mauritania since 2019.
Biram Dah Abeid, deputy of the National Assembly since 2018 and candidate in 2014 and 2019.
Elid Ould Mohameden, Deputy of the National Assembly since 2018.
Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, former General and president of Mauritania from 2008 until 2019.

7. BOTSWANA (October, 2024)

Botswana is located in the south of Africa and has a population of 2.6 million people. Botswana is considered one of the most successful democratic states in Africa. It is known for its respect for human rights and a stable rule of law.

It practices a parliamentary system where the National Assembly indirectly elects the president, who also appoints his vice president. The mandate of the president is for five years, with a two-time bid.

The presidency of Ian Khama elapsed in 2018, which paved the way for Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who was named interim president and pronounced president in November 2019 when the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) won the polls. Botswana is a de facto one-party state, with the BDP dominating political power since the attainment of independence in 1966.

Electoral Profile

Botswana has a unicameral legislature with 65 seats at the National Assembly and an Advisory House of Chiefs with 35 members. The major political parties in Botswana include the BDP, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), and the Alliance of Progressives (AP).

Previous Parliamentary Election (October, 2019)

The BDP won by 52.7% with a total of 38 seats, followed by the UDC, which won 15 seats representing 35.9%, the BPF, which won 4.4%, securing 3 seats, and the AP, which secured 1 with 5.1%.

Expectations from the October 2024 polls in Botswana

The voter registration for the 2024 parliamentary and local government elections in Botswana is scheduled to commence from January 5, 2024, to February 3, 2024. Following the possible candidature of the current President Masisi, it is expected that the BDP may win the election.

There are other exceptions, such as the alliance of opposition parties formed by an alliance of UDC and BPF. Ian Khan has also expressed bitter resentment for the leadership style of Masisi and may therefore join opposition members to sink the victory of the ruling BDP.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

The nature of elections in Botswana may permit the emergence of some other political parties but the major expected political parties and their candidates include the following:

Mokgweetsi Masisi, the incumbent president and the leader of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).

Duma Boko, the leader of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), a coalition of opposition parties.

Dumelang Saleshando, the leader of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP).

8. MOZAMBIQUE (October, 2024)

Mozambique’s elections are fixed for 9th October, 2024. The Country is located southeast of Africa and gained independence from Portugal in 1975. It has a population of 33.8 million people. In the past decade, the country has faced numerous political and security challenges from insurgency groups that have undermined national democratic efforts.

Mozambique practices a semi-presidential system with a two-time bid and a 5-year duration of tenure. The president has the power to appoint the prime minister, who performs governmental duties. The current president is Filipe Nyusi, who was re-elected for a second term in 2019.

Electoral Profile

The president is elected by popular vote. Mozambique has a unicameral legislative system known as the Assembly of the Republic, with 250 seats and an elected five-year term. The major political parties in Mozambique include the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO), the Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO), and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM).

Previous elections

Filipe Nyusi won the 2019 general elections with 73.4%, with 4,639,172 valid votes cast in his favour. Ossufo Momade of RENAMO placed second with 21.48%, with 1,356,786 votes in his favour. Davis Simango of MDM secured 273,599 votes, representing 4.3% of the valid votes cast, while Mário Albino of the Action Party of the United Movement for Integral Salvation (AMUSI) secured 46,048 votes.

Expectations from the October 2024 Presidential and Parliamentary elections
The tacit opposition and criticism that have come on the backdrop of the annulment of the district assembly elections, which were scheduled to be held in 2024, may cause room for commentary on the willingness of the central government to decentralize power.

The recent municipal election in December 2023 has come with backlash from the opposition RENAMO over voter irregularities. As Filipe Nyusi is not expected to run for the 2024 elections, the decision on a successor for the ruling FRELIMO will be made in March 2024. However, the most likely choice is Nyusi Celso Correia, the current minister of agriculture.

Other possible candidates include Luisa Diogo, a former prime minister; José Pacheco, also a former prime minister; Samora Machel Junior, the son of the first president of Mozambique; Alberto Vaquina and Basilio Monteiro. The support of Nyusi for any of these candidates may secure another victory for FRELIMO.

This will come without some irregularities in voting or violence, but it may not amount to a national conflict. The active presence of a terrorist group in the northern province of Cabo Delgado may also pose a challenge to the democratic exercise.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO): Celso Correia, Luisa Diogo
Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO): Ossufo Momade
Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM): Davis Simango

9. MAURITIUS (November, 2024)

Mauritius is an East African country with a population of about 1.3 million people. It is considered one of the most enviable democracies in Africa, with full liberal democratic ratings. Mauritius practices a classical parliamentary system with a five-year term.

The president is conferred with ceremonial functions, while the prime minister plays real executive functions. The country has a unicameral legislature, which has the power to indirectly elect the president, with the party of coalition controlling the majority in the national assembly having the power to make that decision. The president, after being appointed by the majority party, appoints the prime minister.

Following parliamentary elections in November 2019, Pritivirajsing Roopun, a lawmaker from the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM), was elected in December 2019.

Electoral Profile

The National Assembly of Mauritius has 70 seats. The multiparty democratic system of Mauritius is dominated by three major political parties: The Militant Socialist Movement (MSM), the Labour Party and the Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM).

Previous Parliamentary elections

The incumbent MSM won 42 seats in the parliamentary elections, which is more than half of the seats, followed by the Labour Party, which won 17 seats; the

MMM won 9 seats; and the Rodrigues People's Organisation (OPR) secured 2 seats from the Island of Rodrigues.

Expectations from the November 2024 Parliamentary elections

The opposition parties to MSM have not provided a strong will to wrestle power from the incumbent political party. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth and President Pritivirajsing Roopun, who have family ties to the top position, may have the chance to secure a majority for the MSM.

The number of female representations is expected to increase according to electoral reform recommendations by the African Union (AU) following observations from the 2019 elections. The election is expected to be peaceful, but without ruling out litigation to test the authenticity of the results within the court.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

Militant Socialist Movement (MSM): The ruling party, led by Pravind Jugnauth, the incumbent prime minister.
Labour Party: Navin Ramgoolam, a former prime minister.
Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM): Paul Bérenger, a veteran politician and former prime minister.

10. SOMALILAND (November, 2024)

Somaliland is a self-declared republic that seceded from Somalia in 1991, but it is not recognized internationally as an independent state in the Horn of Africa.

It has a population of 5.9 million people. Somaliland practices a presidential system in which the president is directly elected and appoints his cabinet. The mandate of the president lasts for five years with a two-term bid. Due to delays in elections in Somaliland, the previous presidential election was held in 2017 after two years of delays.

Muse Bihi Abdi of the Peace, Unity, and Development Party (Kulmiye) emerged victorious in that election and delayed the election until November 2024, even though the election should have taken place in November 2022.

Electoral Profile

Somaliland operates a bicameral legislature with 82 seats in the upper house (Guurti), indirectly elected for six years by largely clan elders. The lower house is composed of 82 seats, which are directly elected for a five-year tenure. The major political parties include the Peace, Unity, and Development Party (Kulmiye), the Somaliland National Party (Waddani), and the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID).

Previous elections

In the November 2017 elections in Somaliland, Muse Bihi Abdi of the Kulmiye received 305,909 votes, winning the election by 55%, while Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi of the Waddani party secured 226,092 votes, representing 40.73%, and UCID, led by Faysal Ali Warabe, secured 23,141 votes, representing 4.17% of the votes.

Expectations from the November 2024 Presidential elections

The sharp divisions in Somaliland persist between the opposition and the government on conflicting terms. The election of 2024 is possible with political commitment from all the parties, provided the electoral amendments that have been tabled are approved. The dismissal of an official of the opposition party in the National Electoral Commission (NEC) ought to be addressed.

Non-compliance with these conditions may jeopardize the success of the election. The opposition party seeks to ally with a newly formed political party known as Kaah, led by Mohamoud Hashi Abdi, a former minister, and Waddani; they seek to work together in the legislature.

Possible contenders in the November 2024 election

Muse Bihi Abdi of Kulmiye has a second tenure to run for president.
The alliance between Kaah and Waddani may announce their leadership after all satisfactory agreements have been signed.

11. ALGERIA (December, 2024)

Algeria is a North African state with a population of 45.8 million people. Algeria is a semi-presidential constitutional state, with the President as the head of state and the Prime Minister as the head of government. The current president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, was elected into office in 2019 with 58% of the total votes cast, with a five-year limit.

As a result, 2024 will end his mandate as president, with a possible renewal in December 2024. Algeria has faced a series of social and political unrests since 2019, when a mass protest movement known as the Hirak movement emerged in opposition to the fifth-term bid of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

The movement forced the resignation of Bouteflika in April 2019 after he lost support from the majority of military elites.

Electoral Profile

Algeria has a five-year term limit with a two-term bid. Algeria has a bicameral legislative system, that is, two chambers of legislation: The People’s National Assembly with 407 members and the Council of the Nation with 144 members.

The major political parties in Algeria are the National Liberation Front (FLN), the National Democratic Rally (RND), the Islamist Movement of Society for Peace (MSP), the Islamist National Construction Movement (El-Binaa) the Future Front and the Socialist Forces Front (FFS).

Previous Presidential Elections (2019)

Voter turnout was 34%; this was a result of the boycott by Hirak Movement supporters who decided not to take part in the elections.

The election results are as follows: Abdelmadjid Tebboune of the FLN won by 58.13% (4,947,523), followed by Abdelkader Bengrina of El Binaa, who secured 1,477,836 votes, representing 17.37%, and Azzedine Mihoubi of the RND, who secured 619,225 votes.

Possible contenders of this year’s election

The stakes are not yet clear, but these may be the most plausible contenders for the presidential bid, despite the activism of the Hirak movement for radical political reforms.

The current president, Tebboune, announced that he may contest again if given the strength.

Abdelaziz Djerad: A former prime minister, he was appointed by Tebboune in December 2019 and resigned in June 2021.

Ali Benflis: A former prime minister, he has contested for the presidency in 2004, 2014, and 2019 but has not been successful.

Karim Tabbou: A prominent activist and leader of the Democratic and Social Union party. He is one of the most popular and influential figures of the Hirak

12. SOUTH SUDAN (December, 2024)

South Sudan is a landlocked country at the heart of central Africa, with a population of 11.1 million people. The country gained its independence from Sudan in 2011 after a long civil war. However, the new nation has faced many challenges since then, including political conflict, communal violence, corruption, and humanitarian crises.

With the semiautonomous status of South Sudan in 2010, Salva Kiir Mayardit was elected president and has remained in office till date (2024). In December 2013, a power struggle between President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, triggered a civil war that killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions. The Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) of 2018 was rolled out in 2020. The transitional period is expected to last until 2025, but elections are expected to be held in December 2024.

Expectations from the 2024 Presidential elections

Considering the prolonged tension between political actors in South Sudan, the election may come without violence, yet the close intervention of the AU can make a difference.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election (December)

The ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is led by Salva Kiir who announced his candidature in July 2023.

Taban Deng Gai: He is the third vice president and the leader of the Former Detainees (FDs), a faction of the SPLM.

Riek Machar Teny: He is the first vice president and the leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), the main rebel group.

13. GHANA (December, 2024)

Ghana will go to the polls on 7th December 2024. The West African state has a population of 33.1 million people. It has been hailed as one of Africa’s successful democracies for the promotion and protection of human and civil rights among its citizens.

The country practices a multiparty democracy, but it is a de facto two-party state with two major political parties dominating and winning both presidential and majority seats in parliament since the inception of its 1992 democratic system. The duration of the presidency is four years with a two-term bid.

The current president, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party, wrestled power from the current main opposition, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in 2016 and won a second term in 2020. Ghana practices a presidential system where the president is both head of state and head of government; the president appoints the vice-president.

Electoral Profile

Ghana has a unicameral legislature with 275 seats who are elected directly through a single-member constituency for a duration of four years. The major political parties in Ghana include the National Democratic Congress (NDC), the New Patriotic Party (NPP), the Convention People’s Party (CPP), and the Ghana Union Movement (GUM).

Previous election

The previous election in December 2020 saw the reelection of the incumbent president Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo of the NPP, who won by 6,692,630 votes (51.2%), and the main opposition leader, John Dramani Mahama, who secured 6,170,492 votes, representing 47.2%, while the rest of the other political parties shared the rest of the votes.

Expectations from the December 2024 elections

There is an expectation for legal challenges to some new measures rolled out by the Electoral Commission (EC) before the elections in December. The election year will go without mass protests organized by labor unions, opposition parties, and civil society groups. The introduction of the vice president of the incumbent government, Mahamudu Bawumia, will challenge the chances of the main opposition party, John Dramani Mahama.

Both candidates are also going to find it difficult to settle on a vice presidential candidate. The current state of affairs is a two-horse race between the two major parties which have governed the country since the 4th Republic under the 1992 constitution. The NPP is determined to overturn the traditional second-term routine under the mantra “breaking the 8”. The polls will come with some pockets of violence, yet they will not overshadow the outcome of the elections.

Possible contenders in the December 2024 Presidential election

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the incumbent Vice-President of Ghana and the candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).

John Dramani Mahama, the former President of Ghana and the candidate of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Alan Kyerematen, the founder and leader of the Movement for Change (MFC), a new political movement that broke away from the NPP.

14. CHAD (December)

Chad is a central African country with a population of 18.5 million people. The country has been plagued by political instability and violence for decades. The former president, Idriss Déby Itno, who died in April 2021, seized power during a rebellion in 1990 and won subsequent elections before his demise.

Following his demise, the Transitional Military Council (CMT), headed by his son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, took control of the country in a coup d’état. A constitutional referendum took place in December 2023, with 86% in favor of the constitution, paving the way for elections in 2024.

Expectations from 2024 Chad polls

The major expectation is for the Mahamat Iddris Derby may contest with higher chances of winning, having the military on his side and governmental machinery under his control. Iddris Derby will also face serious opposition from the current AU commissioner, Faki Mahamat. The elections will not go without some pockets of violence, as they will be competitively contested. Chad faces terrorist attacks in the north and Boko Haram in the south; this may also undermine the electoral process if not controlled by the security forces.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election
Mahamat Iddris Derby Itno
Moussa Faki Mahamat
Albert Pahimi Padacké
Félix Nialbe Romadoumngar
Lydie Beassemda

15. Togo

Togo is a West African state with a population of 9 million people. Togo has a pure presidential system where the president is the head of state and head of government. The president is directly elected for a five-year term. The current president is Faure Gnassingbé, who has been in power since 2005, following the death of his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who ruled the country for 38 years.

Faure Gnassingbé won his fourth term in the 2020 presidential election with 70.8% of the vote, amid allegations of fraud and repression by the opposition. The tenure of Faure will come to an end in 2025 for elections; however, there will be legislative assembly elections in 2024.

16. Namibia

The Republic of Namibia is a southern African state with a population of 2.6 million people. The country is recognized for its democratic progress and the promotion of liberal rights among its citizens. Namibia is historically a de facto one-party state, with the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) political party winning all elections since its independence in 1990.

The incumbent president, Hage Geingob, of the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), was elected into power in 2019 by 56.3%. Namibia practices a presidential system where the president is directly elected and exercises both ceremonial and governmental functions. It is a de jure multiparty democratic system with a five-year presidential term with a possible renewal.

Electoral Profile

Namibia operates a bicameral legislative system, with the upper house known and the national council appointed by regional councils for a six-year term with 42 seats. The national assembly is the lower house, with 96 elected for a five-year term through a party-list proportional representation.

The major political parties include SWAPO, the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), the Landless People’s Movement (LPM), the All People’s Party (APP), and the National Unity Democratic Organisation (NUDO).

Previous elections

Political fragmentation and competition are on the rise in Namibia. This is the result of the gradual decrease in support for SWAPO demonstrated in the 2019 elections, which saw a decline in the percentage of votes for the party from 87% in the 2014 polls to 56.3%, which is the all-time lowest for the party.

In the 2019 elections, Hage Geingob received 464,703 votes, representing 56.3%; Panduleni Itula, an independent candidate, made history by securing 242,657 votes, representing 29.3%; and McHenry Venaani of the PDM received 43,959 votes, representing 5.32%.

Expectations from the 2024 Presidential elections

The Namibian general elections are expected to be fiercely competitive with the SWAPO, which is currently divided and gradually losing support, presenting a new candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah who wants to become the first female president in Namibia.

The elections may go in favour of SWAPO despite competition from Panduleni Itula, who has demonstrated a strong will to wrestle political power against the backdrop of preaching to fight corruption and create jobs for the youth. The poll is expected to be calm, with few issues of electoral irregularities.

Possible contenders in the 2024 election

South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO): Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah
Independent Patriots for Change (IPC): Panduleni Itula
Popular Democratic Movement (PDM): McHenry Venaani

17. Burkina Faso (*July, 2024*)

Burkina Faso is a West African country with a population of 23.2 million people. The country has experienced a series of challenges with democratic continuity. The state has been ridden with a series of coups amidst security challenges with the activities of terrorist fighters in recent times.

The military junta led by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba took over the affairs of the state from democratically elected president Roch Kabore in January 2022. Captain Ibrahim Traoré, overthrew the military junta of Damiba in September 2022, and both interestingly came to power promising to address the security challenges posed by insurgency groups within the country.

The transitional charter which was supervised by the ECOWAS had enjoined the junta to as part of the transitional processes to hold elections by July 2024. The leader of the junta Traore in celebrating the first anniversary of the junta has signaled doubt over the possibility of the July 2024 elections citing that the priority of the country is security.

18. Mali (*February, 2024*)

Mali is a landlocked country in West Africa, it has experienced a series of putsches since its independence in 1960. The country currently faces security challenges posed by insurgency groups operating within the Sahel of Africa. The back-to-back military takeovers in recent times in Mali.

In August 2020 the civilian government of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was short-lived by a mutiny led by Colonel Assimi Goïta who formed the National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNSP) which promised to deal with the security challenges of Mali and also pave a way for democratic activities including elections. The ECOWAS imposed sanctions on Mali that worsened the economic situation of the state.

The CNSP rolled out an 18-month political transition in response to the promise of restoring democracy in September 2020. Bah N'daw was named the transitional president, Colonel Assimi Goïta was named the Vice president, and Moctar Ouane was named the prime minister of the transition government. Following a reshuffle by Bah N'daw the Malian military led by Colonel Assimi Goïta aborted the mandate of the transitional government in May 2021.

The military government of Mali in March 2022 announced a 24-month transition into democracy following pressure from the sub-regional body ECOWAS. The presidential election which was scheduled to take place in February 2024 has been postponed indefinitely by the transitional government citing that some technical conditions for the elections ought to be secured before elections.

IMPLICATIONS

The implications of these elections are multifaceted varying from economic, social, security, governance, and the fragile electoral and democratic system of African countries.

Economically, the high number of electoral activities implies that public expenditure will increase in most economies in Africa. The growth rate in Africa is however expected to rise in 2024. The high number of elections may also increase investment in projects by incumbent governments to enhance their chances of retaining power.

Most African governments tend to be profligate during election years, however, due to the fragile nature of elections in Africa, private and foreign investors usually develop a wait-and-see attitude to investment thereby slowing down economic growth comparatively.

In terms of security, elections in Africa elections have been highly securitized in many situations which creates tensions within and among political actors. This is caused by suspicion, electoral violence, and the possibility of electoral irregularities.

In regimes with robust democratic credentials, the securitization of elections is not highly emphasized, while in regimes with weak democratic credentials, the securitization of elections takes center stage. The securitization of elections usually diverts state attention from equally important issues such as economic and social to elections.

The predicted high nature of political activism from big democracies in Africa implies a high securitization of elections even within robust democracies including Senegal, Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia.

CONCLUSION

Elections in Africa in 2024 will be a defining point for democracy on the continent. 71% of the analyzed incumbent candidates are likely to retain power while 29% of the above incumbents may lose political power in the 2024 elections. The growing fragmentation in the electoral process makes this year’s election unique.

Most traditional and majoritarian parties that have dominated the electoral processes in some democracies have seen a decrease in their support base since the third wave of democratization in Africa in the 1990s.

The biggest political party in South Africa, the ANC has seen a nose dive in their support following the previous two elections, and its support base is expected to marginally decrease following the challenges the incumbent government has faced within its mandate.

The ruling SWAPO in Namibia has also seen a decrease in their support base in its previous elections in 2019, this trend is expected to manifest in the 2024 elections. West Africa may also see some political transitions among one of the most enviable democracies including Ghana and Senegal.

The doubt of elections in two of West African countries that are under a military regime undermines the growth of democracy in the region. The evolving nature of elections in Africa will be determined in 2024 as this aligns with democratic processes in other parts of the world including Taiwan, the US, India, and Mexico among several other countries.

The article was authored for and on behalf of the African Centre for International Relations by Shadrach Baa–Naa Kundi and Joseph Boateng who are both International Relations Analyst

FOR FURTHER ENQUIRIES CONTACT:
Shadrach Baa-Naa Kundi
International Relations Analyst
African Centre for International Affairs (AFRICIA)
Tel No: +233 54 837 7011