Cocoa prices are coming under pressure as stronger supplies from Ivory Coast weigh on the market, although concerns over Ghana’s next crop are providing some support.

The total volume of cocoa delivered to ports in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reached 2.14 million metric tonnes (MMT) between October 1, 2025, and September 13, 2026.

This represents an 18% increase compared with the same period last year.

According to a report by Barchart, Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café-Cacao, also reported that the country harvested about 2.06 MMT between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% from the 1.58 MMT recorded a year earlier.

The increase in supplies has added pressure on cocoa prices, with global inventories also rising.

ICE cocoa stocks climbed to a two-year high of 3.44 million bags on September 4 before easing slightly to about 3.42 million bags on Monday.

Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest cocoa processor, said on September 2 that the global cocoa market is currently well supplied.

The company said the market is in a stronger position to withstand supply risks than it was during the 2023/24 El Niño period, when cocoa prices surged to record levels.

El Niño is a weather pattern that can bring hotter and drier conditions to West Africa, potentially reducing rainfall and affecting cocoa production.

Concerns over next cocoa season

Despite the increase in current supplies, concerns are growing over production in the next cocoa season, particularly in West Africa.

Ghana’s Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) estimates that the country’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 tonnes, compared with about 750,000 tonnes projected for the 2025/26 season.

COCOBOD has attributed the expected decline to factors including swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and possible adverse weather linked to El Niño.

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The regulator had earlier estimated Ghana’s 2026/27 crop at 650,000 tonnes, down 13% from the 750,000 tonnes projected for the previous season, following field surveys of cocoa pod development.

Concerns are also emerging from Ivory Coast, where early assessments indicate weak pod development and below-average cherelle formation.

Some estimates put the country’s 2026/27 production at around 1.8 MMT, down from roughly 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.

Weather conditions are adding to the uncertainty, with cloudy weather and limited sunshine in Ghana and Ivory Coast raising concerns about black pod disease and cocoa bean quality.

Producer price increase

Meanwhile, Ghana’s proposal to increase the cocoa producer price by 6% for the 2026/27 season could influence how much cocoa farmers release onto the market as they seek better returns.

Despite the current pressure on prices, supply risks are expected to remain a key factor in the cocoa market.

StoneX recently cut its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus from 149,000 tonnes to just 25,000 tonnes, citing potential production risks in West Africa.

Demand remains mixed

Demand has also been mixed across major cocoa-consuming markets.

European cocoa grindings fell by 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, while North American grindings increased by 7.7%.

Asian cocoa grindings recorded a stronger 25% increase during the same period.

The mixed demand picture, combined with rising inventories and uncertainty over production in West Africa, is expected to influence the direction of cocoa prices in the coming months.

With additional files from Barchart

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