The 2nd by-election of the 9th Parliament of the 4th Republic of Ghana is being held on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, to find a representative for the people of Ayawaso East after they lost their sitting National Democratic Congress (NDC) Member of Parliament, Naser Toure Mahama.

The 1st by-election of the 9th Parliament, which was held in September 2025 in the Akwatia Constituency in the Eastern Region, was won by the ruling NDC, snatching a seat won by the opposition in the main 2024 parliamentary election.

In just a few hours, the people of Ayawaso East will be choosing a replacement for the replacement of their deceased MP. Five men — NDC’s Baba Jamal, NPP’s Baba Ali Yussif, Ibrahim Iddrisu of the Liberal People’s Party (LPP), as well as independent candidates Alhaji Mohammed Umaru Sanda and David Kannor — are contesting for the seat.

Is the NDC going to retain the Ayawaso seat, or will the NPP snatch it from the ruling party? An analysis of parliamentary elections in the constituency can perhaps help answer this question.

History

The Ayawaso East Constituency has been in existence since the creation of the 4th Republic, which implies that the constituency has had nine parliamentary elections.

Data show that the NDC has won all nine parliamentary elections in the constituency, with the NPP coming second in all of these elections.



Breakdown of parliamentary election victories in Ayawaso East:

1992 parliamentary election:

The 1992 parliamentary election for the Ayawaso East Constituency was won by the NDC’s Yahaya Seidu.

Unconfirmed data suggest that Yahaya Seidu won the election by a landslide with over 50% of the total vote cast.

1996 parliamentary election:

The 1996 election was also won by the NDC, this time by Farouk Braimah.

The data show that Farouk Braimah got 45,605 of the total votes, representing 42.70%, while his closest contender, the NPP’s Yussif Kwame Nkrumah, had 21,841 votes, which represent 20.50% of the total votes cast.




2000 parliamentary election:

In the 2000 parliamentary election, Dr Mustapha Ahmed of the NDC won with 29,579 votes, representing 44.77% of the total votes.

The NPP came close this time. The party’s candidate, Kofi Wayo, garnered 29,026 votes, representing about 43.93% of the total votes cast.

The NDC won this election narrowly, with about 500 votes, compared to previous elections where it won by 10,000 or more.




2004 parliamentary election:

The 2004 parliamentary election was also a bit competitive, even though the NDC won. Dr Mustapha Ahmed was once again the candidate of the NDC, and he won with 49,354 votes, representing 56.15% of the total votes cast.

The NPP’s Daddah Braimah came a close second with about 39% of the total votes cast, polling 34,453 votes.




2008 parliamentary election:

Dr Mustapha Ahmed won the seat for the NDC again in 2008 with an increased number of votes.

He got 44,655 votes, which represent 57.16% of the total votes, compared to the 26,020 (33.31%) his NPP challenger, Mohammed Salisu Baba, polled.




2012 parliamentary election:

Naser Toure Mahama, the NDC MP whose death has necessitated the upcoming by-election, won the seat for the party in 2012.

He polled 26,647 votes (65.44% of the total votes cast). His NPP challenger, Mohammed Baba, polled 13,887 votes (34.10%).




2016 parliamentary election:

Naser Toure Mahama again won the 2016 election for the NDC. He won the Ayawaso East seat with 23,407 votes (62.0%).

The NPP candidate in the election, Peter Mireku Kwame Antwi, got 13,599 votes, representing 36.08% of the total votes cast.




2020 parliamentary election:

Naser Toure Mahama again won the Ayawaso East seat in 2020 with 23,583 votes, representing 61.18% of the total votes.

The NPP candidate in the election was again Peter Mireku Kwame Antwi, who got 14,966 votes, representing 38.82% of the total votes cast.




2024 parliamentary election:

The late MP won the Ayawaso East seat for the fourth time in the 2024 election with nearly 71% of the total votes cast — 22,139 votes.

His NPP contender managed only 9,110 votes, representing about 29% of the total votes.



Conclusion:



Based on the data, Ayawaso East has remained a stronghold of the NDC since 1992, with the party winning all nine parliamentary elections held in the constituency. Although the NPP has consistently placed second, its closest attempt at capturing the seat was in 2000, when Kofi Wayo narrowed the margin to about 500 votes.

Since then, however, the NDC has maintained relatively comfortable margins, even expanding its lead in some election years, including a commanding victory in 2024.

While by-elections can produce surprises due to lower voter turnout, protest voting or local dynamics, historical voting patterns suggest that the NDC enters the contest as the clear favourite. For the NPP to overturn nearly three decades of electoral dominance, it would require a significant shift in voter behaviour.

BAI

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