Key political risks to watch in Ghana

ACCRA, Sept 1 - Ghana will join the club of oil-producing nations this year, offering it the chance to transform the fortunes of its aid-dependent economy.

Yet other countries have seen how the blessing of oil can turn into a curse, crowding out other sectors of the economy while triggering public spending sprees, official corruption and even fuelling insecurity.

Here are some of the risk factors:

THE OIL WINDFALL

A string of discoveries in the Jubilee offshore oilfield from 2007 mean Ghana is confident of total reserves there of around 1.6 billion barrels with potentially more in adjacent sites. First oil is seen due in December 2010, with initial output put at 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) and rising to 250,000 bpd by 2013 -- squeezing Ghana into the list of the world's top 50 producers. [ID:nLDE67N12M]

Aside from the state-owned Ghanaian National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), major players in Jubilee include UK-listed operator Tullow Oil Plc , U.S.-producer Anadarko Petroleum and privately held U.S. energy firm Kosmos.

In August, Kosmos cancelled the sale of its 30.875 percent stake in the West Cape Three Points block and 18 percent share in the Deepwater Tano to ExxonMobil (XOM.N: Quote), a deal Ghana said was in breach of Kosmos' commitments. Despite state oil firm GNPC reaffirming its interest in the stake, Kosmos subsequently said its policy now was to remain in Ghana.

What to watch:

-- Signs of a delay in the first oil. Ghanaian officials say preparations are on track for late 2010, but some analysts fear this is ambitious just three years after the first discoveries and say a 2011 start could be more realistic.

-- More ownership wrangles. GNPC has declared that it is interested in any opportunity to increase its holding in the Jubilee field. There has been persistent speculation it will team with a Chinese or other international partner to fund such a deal. Nothing has materialised so far, but Ghana feels that the country should enjoy a full share of the oil benefit.

-- More oil finds. Tullow announced on July 26 its Owo-1 exploration well had discovered a new oil field closer to Jubilee and that it was assessing its size.

THE ECONOMY

Oil is an unpredictable, potentially game-changing new factor for the economy. President John Atta Mills' government hopes the new revenue stream can help lift Ghana out of the low-income bracket of countries such as Afghanistan and Haiti into the middle-income ranks of Iran or Egypt -- a goal the International Monetary Fund says it could attain in a decade.

Economic growth next year is forecast to be among the highest in the world at close to 15 percent, while analysts see the Ghanaian cedi GHS= building on its 2009 gains.

The cedi appreciation has helped bring inflation down from 20 percent in early 2009 to 9.52 percent in June. But the downward trend appears to be bottoming out and analysts are split on whether further rate cuts are possible after a total 500 basis points of cuts from last November have brought the prime policy rate down to 13.5 percent.

Firm commodities prices are expected to provide an extra cushion to the economy and Ghana is determined the oil rush will not damage its gold and cocoa sectors. The latter could even supplant Ivory Coast's ailing crop as the world's biggest in around 2012. However smuggling of cocoa into Ivory Coast, where higher prices can be achieved, has hit official volumes.

What to watch:

-- The next meeting of the Bank of Ghana's rate-setting committee from Sept. 20. Some analysts predict a further cut of 100 basis points is possible, while others judge that the easing cycle is over for now.

-- Inflation taking off again. Price growth has now fallen into single digits. But then it is forecast to take off again on a combination of rising utility tariffs, public sector wage hikes and increased state spending.

-- A re-basing of economic statistics originally due around mid-2010 but now seen by year-end. A move to include parts of the informal economy in output data and rebalance weightings to reflect new business sectors, it will mean a statistical upgrade of the size of the economy by anything up to 50 percent.

PUBLIC FINANCES

Mills' government unsettled markets in August by announcing that debt arrears inherited from the former government meant the end-2008 public deficit stood at 24.2 percent of gross domestic product, almost double the previous estimate. Emergency measures brought the deficit back down below 10 percent by the end of 2009, and the government is banking on oil revenues helping it fall to 3-5 percent by 2012. [ID:nLP230649]

For 2010 the government wants to prime growth with spending in the energy sector, farming and infrastructure. But the IMF recommendation after its March visit to the country was clear: "Fiscal management remains Ghana's main challenge."

What to watch:

-- Higher public borrowing. The new spending plans have led to concerns the deficit could start ticking up again. Ghana's public sector wage bill -- at around 11 percent of GDP one of Africa's highest -- narrows the scope for any belt-tightening.

-- Ghana goes to the market for new funds. Ghana already has a Eurobond and was set launch a new $300 million issue before poor market conditions prompted it last September to hold back.

FOREIGN INVESTORS

By African standards, Ghana has a good name on governance. In corruption watchdog Transparency International's 2009 rankings, only Botswana, South Africa and Namibia were perceived to be more determined to tackle graft in sub-Saharan Africa.

Yet the wrangling over the Kosmos stake in the Jubilee field unsettled some investors, as did October 2009's news that Ghana wanted to renegotiate British mobile phone giant Vodafone Group Plc's $900 million purchase of a 70 percent stake in the national phone company, Ghana Telecoms .

Portfolio investors focus on the country's debut $750 million Eurobond GH032376037=RRPS. It is currently yielding around 6 percent against a launch yield of 8.5 percent.

Investors in Ghana's then paper-based bourse struggled to wind down positions when the global slowdown hit stocks in 2008. The GSE All-share index finished the year up 58 percent but the gains were practically wiped out last year. Despite the advent of an automated trading system in late 2008, daily trading volume rarely tops $1 million and illiquidity is a concern.

What to watch:

-- Further falls in interest rates make yields on Ghanaian stocks more attractive. The All-share index is up around 18 percent from the start of the year.

-- Relations with multinationals. The Kosmos and Vodafone sagas, together with moves to increase the amount that companies pay in mining royalties, show Mills' government could alienate investors with moves to stamp its authority.