Disinflation path could extend through Q4 2023 - GCB Capital Research

GCB Capital Research is projecting a downward trend towards disinflation which could extend through the fourth quarter of 2023.

According to the research arm, the country’s inflation could trend downwards notwithstanding inflationary pressures, fuel price hikes, and currency instability.

It, however, highlighted certain upside risk factors which could potentially moderate the anticipated downward trend in inflation.

These include, utility tariff adjustments, festive season pressures, high corporate demand for Foreign Exchange (FX) and petroleum price hikes.

“Accordingly, we expect a favourable base drift in quarter 4, 2023 to trigger a more moderate decline in headline inflation in October 2023, followed by a potentially sharper decline in November. Headline inflation could print 32% by November 2023 if the anticipated upside risks to inflation from the seasonality effects and petroleum price pressures soften sufficiently,” GCB Capital Research said.

Meanwhile, the national inflation for the month of September 2023 declined to 38.1 percent from the 40.1 percent recorded in August 2023.

According to figures from the Ghana Statistical Service, both food and non-food inflation dropped to 49.4 percent and 29.3 percent respectively for September 2023.

Additionally, inflation for locally produced items stood at 37.3 percent while that of imported items was around 39.9 percent.

MA/NOQ

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