AFRICANS heralded the start of the new millennium with optimistic talk about an “African Renaissance” as Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s president, called it. Now, at last, the continent was supposed to slip the surly bonds of kleptocracy and dictatorship that had held it back over the previous decades, and ascend to the sunlit uplands of good governance, democracy and economic prosperity.

It was a nice idea, but it also makes Africa’s last 18 months or so doubly frustrating and disappointing. Almost everywhere, apparently, the cause of good governance and democracy has been going backwards rather than forwards. Which is why Ghana’s elections on Sunday December 7th matter even more for Africa than they do for the country itself. After a litany of conspicuous failure, Africans are looking to Ghana to redeem the continent with a fair and peaceful election.

Ghana has much to atone for. Last year Nigeria, had its most crooked election ever. Kenya suffered political meltdown and widespread violence after disputed elections. Zimbabwe’s presidential elections were so rigged and violent that the opposition pulled out of competing in the second round. The ruling party’s grip on the media and communications in Angola’s election lent it few democratic credentials. Afro-pessimists, that hardy breed who despair of African countries ever improving themselves, have had a good run. Is Ghana up to the task of proving them wrong for once?

On the face of it, the answer should be yes. Together with just a handful of countries, such as Mozambique and Mali, Ghana has been one of Africa’s undoubted success stories of the past decade. It plumbed the depths of corruption and authoritarianism in the 1970s and 1980s, but since the restoration of democracy in 1991 the country has earned an enviable reputation for individual freedom and political stability. Previous elections have passed off relatively peacefully.

The economy has been doing pretty well too, with growth averaging about 6%. And the discovery of oil off the coast has added to the general feeling of optimism. Ghanaians are also acutely conscious of their pan-African responsibilities at this moment. They are fiercely proud of their history as the first sub-Saharan country to win independence from European colonialists, in 1957. And they have seen themselves as being in the vanguard of African history ever since. Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi of Ghana’s Centre for Democratic Development says “there is a popular desire to maintain a record of not behaving like others on the continent in these elections. It is a point of pride.”

Nonetheless, foreign and domestic election-monitoring organisations are still deploying thousands of observers to polling day to guard against fraud. Church leaders and civic groups give daily lectures on the need for peace and goodwill at the polls. For, despite general confidence that all should go well, there are still plenty of reasons for nervousness.

For a start, as in Kenya, the ruling party, the New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), are evenly matched. This gives them every incentive to cheat, knowing that just a few votes could tip the balance. The parties both claim that they will win the presidential ballot on the first round. Yet it is thought that they are both a few percentage points shy of the 51% they need to win outright and avoid a second round.

There is also a lot of ill-feeling that has built up between the two parties. The opposition claims that the NPP has exploited its position in government to use the courts to send some of its leaders and former ministers to jail on trumped-up charges. NDC members talk of a political vendetta against them; many want vengeance.

On policy, however, there is little to separate the two parties. Although the NDC is a bit more populist, both sides promise to more or less continue the broadly free-market policies that have served the country well over the last few years. The NPP candidate in particular, Nana Akufo-Addo, is trading heavily on the popularity of the outgoing president, John Kufour, under whom he served as foreign minister and attorney-general.

In the days leading up to the election, peace has prevailed, despite huge rallies held by the main parties. Africa and the world will be watching anxiously on Sunday.