Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics² in Ghana

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The recent debate about the accuracy of the inflation figures in Ghana reminds one of the statement attributed to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

On 16 June the following appeared in Ghanaian and other media: ³Ghana¹s annual rate of inflation fell to 8.90 per cent in May, from 9.02 per cent in April on the back of low food prices, the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) said on Wednesday. Government statistician, Dr. Grace Bediako, said the decline in inflation was because of the downward trend in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group. ³The non-food inflation is almost three times higher than the inflation in the food group,² Bediako said. Food inflation was 3.93 per cent, while non-food average inflation rate is 12.15 per cent. Inflation rates in the regions ranged from a low of 4.15 per cent in the Northern Region to 12.23 per cent in Greater Accra Region.

Given the global food crisis this revelation sounded too good to be true, and was subsequently questioned in a letter from the opposition NPP to the government, stating:

³For sometime now, there has been considerable public interest in the relationship between, on the one hand, the inflation rates put out by the Ghana Statistical Service, and on the other hand, the prices of items on the market. To contribute to this important public discussion, the New Patriotic Party respectfully requests to be furnished with the monthly Retail Market Prices (from January to May of this year) of all items in the inflation basket.²

However, it did not stop there and various parties reported that there is a stark contrast to the reality on the ground and the inflation figures reported by GSS. The Chronicle reported that it ³is disappointed that statistical data that should aid this administration to plan for the future has rather become a tool for lies, propaganda, and maligning of political opponents.²

It went further to say ³the situation on the ground is that Œprices of¹ all manner of goods and services are rising steeply,² and that ³Housewives are at their wits end in making the house-keeping money go round.²

Food Security Ghana also reported recently on reports about high food prices. One such report stated that ³when Ghanaians go to the market or grocery store to purchase food, they face prices that have increased by as much as 40%. Even the price of a sachet, a plastic bag full of water, has doubled from 5 to 10 Pesawas, approximately 3 cents to 6 cents.²

One only needs to look at news headlines to pick up that the global price for a basket of basic foods is still 37% higher than it was this time last year as reported very recently by the UN¹s Food and Agriculture Organisation(FAO). The statistics produced by GSS is therefore highly questionable.

In a response from the government a statement was made that the NDC, when they were in opposition, never questioned the inflation figures and that the NPP must therefore accept the latest figures. That statement is probably where the problem lies: if the previous watchdog (NDC) of the previous government (NPP) did not perform their duty of questioning things that looks obviously wrong, it does not mean the new watchdog (NPP) should also neglect its duty.

In the previous release by FSG titled ³Food prices and hardship enters political agenda in Ghana² reference was made to other worrying aspects of statistics and data collection in Ghana. Without correct information and statistics it is virtually impossible to plan for the future or to formulate policies that reduce poverty and hardship in developing countries such as Ghana.

In 2010 the government reported that local rice production account for 10%, then 30% and lastly 40% of local demand. A difference of 30% in reported statistics makes a huge difference in terms of what is required to be done should the country want to achieve its objective of self-sufficiency in rice production.

Whatever GSS or the government says, there is an obvious problem with facts and statistics being reported in Ghana at present, and every Ghanaian has the right to ask if this is all about ³lies, damned lies and statistics.²

Food Security Ghana, 4 July 2011

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