After a historic 30 percent annual gain against the US dollar in 2025, Ghana’s cedi is expected to experience modest depreciation in 2026, according to a report by EM Advisory.

The report attributes last year’s rally to elevated gold prices, strong cocoa earnings, and increased foreign reserves, which enabled the Bank of Ghana to inject roughly US$10 billion into the foreign exchange market.

Gold exports were a key driver, reaching US$8.3 billion in the first half of 2025 alone, nearly double the figure recorded over the same period the previous year.

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“Because the Ghana Gold Board is mandated to surrender its foreign exchange earnings to the Bank of Ghana, these inflows went directly toward strengthening reserves rather than leaking into parallel markets,” the report noted.

The advisory however cautioned that 2026 will test the resilience of the currency.

“While gold prices are expected to remain elevated, the Bank of Ghana is likely to allow the currency to resume its traditional gradual weakening trend to preserve Ghana’s external competitiveness,” EM Advisory said.

By year-end, the cedi is projected to trade at around GH¢12.0 per US dollar, representing a modest depreciation from current levels.

Additionally, the report said reserve adequacy remains a key focus for the Bank of Ghana, with total gross international reserves reaching US$13.8 billion, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover.

The report warned, however, that reliance on a concentrated commodity export base, predominantly gold, cocoa, and oil, leaves Ghana vulnerable to global price fluctuations.

It therefore recommends structural reforms to reduce commodity dependence and enhance resilience.

“Establishing a modern gold refinery and implementing traceability mechanisms across the supply chain would help capture more value domestically and reduce exposure to price volatility,” EM Advisory suggested.

The local gold-refining initiative with the Gold Coast Refinery was highlighted as a promising step toward achieving this objective.

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