Dark clouds hang over the actual period in which the on-going load shedding exercise in the country would end.

This is because though VRA, ECG and GRIDCo, at a joint press conference organised in Accra in August, this year, assured Ghanaians that the power rationing exercise was not likely to prolong beyond a month, the situation has not improved.

The West Africa Gas Pipeline Company recently announced that it would restore the supply of gas before December 25, 2012.

But just as the dust was about to settle, President John Dramani Mahama, during the launch of his party’s manifesto in Ho recently, revealed that the load shedding exercise would end in 2013.

It is in light of the foregoing misrepresentations that an energy policy think-tank has predicted that the load shedding exercise in Ghana could extend beyond 2015.

The think tank, Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP), says per its calculations, the load shedding exercise is likely to persist for a couple of years.

“We have done our analysis and have come to the findings that per the policy interventions being put in place, it is not guaranteed that this load shedding exercise would end in 2014 or even 2015 but it could be managed,” Mohammed Amin Anta Adams, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of ACEP said.

At its maiden meeting with journalists and official launch of the centre, Mr. Adams said that challenges facing the energy sector in the country were “enormous” and the issues needed to be dispassionately discussed without political strings attached.

He said, “We have been encouraged by the efforts made by various governments to address the challenges facing our energy sector, particularly the power subsector. We took notice of the promise by our President that load shedding will end in 2013. While this is commendable, we think that this should be backed by good analysis and technical advice.”

The centre said their analysis had been “necessitated by the uninformed debate on the load shedding situation in the country in recent times.”

“Our analysis largely depend on the data analysis, the demand analysis and the demand forecasting by taking into consideration the various scenarios of supply.”

According to the centre, “The recent energy crisis has brought to the fore how far we are from achieving the objective of providing reliable electricity supply to meet Ghana’s developmental needs.”

“The crisis exposed the fragility of our power sector and the fact that we are yet to overcome the fundamental problems that give rise to such recurrent power deficits.”

It said although there have been expansion of power generation since 2007, only 375 megawatts had been added out of the estimated 1100 megawatts.

Currently, Ghana has three options to solve the power generation crisis and they are expansion of projects, acquisition of more Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) through the West Africa Gas Project and exploration of the gas from the Jubilee Filed.

“The current load shedding is attributed to gas shortage from Nigeria and if that is true, then the additional generation capacity will not provide the desired generation reliability. The current gas demand is estimated at 200 million standard cubit feet (mmscfd) which is way higher than the daily supply of 105 (mmscfd) from Nigeria.”

The centre further said that the building of an LNG vessel and regassification plant could provide an alternative source of supply but added that it would take about three years to build the vessel, which would not be operational for the next three years if a decision is reached now.

“The current gas demand in Ghana is between 180-200 mmscfd. With the number of thermal power plants currently installed and expected to be in operation by 2015, the local demand is expected to ramp up to 280-300 mmscfd by 2015.”

The centre said general reliability and transmission must be complemented to address the problems.