Pollster Ben Ephson says the by- election in the Atiwa constituency in the Eastern region is a done deal for the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP). The seat became vacant following the death of the NPP Member of Parliament for the area, Kwasi Annor Ankamah in June this year after a protracted illness. The NPP and the ruling party, the National Democratic Congress have since been campaigning vigorously to win the seat.

Already, the NPP is accusing the NDC of not only plotting to rig the polls but also to buy the votes of a good number of electorates in the constituency. The NDC has subsequently debunked these allegations.

But Mr Ephson is sure the NPP will carry the day on August 31, the period scheduled for the by-election. Ben Ephson was speaking with Emefa Apawu on the big bite show this morning on XFM 95.1, an Accra Based private radio station. Describing the Atiwa constituency a safe seat for the NPP, Mr Ephson says the NDC has never won the seat since 1996, adding that the closest they can get is to narrow the percentage of the gap. Ben Ephson noted, “Atiwa is one of the 185 constituencies considered as safe seats for either the NPP or the NDC. Between 2004 and 2008, the NPP have had an average of about 74 per cent.”

However, Ben Ephson says given the status of the seat as a safe one for the NPP, the results of the by-election cannot be used as a fair measure of performance of the Mills’ administration, explaining that elections in swing constituencies are best suited for such measuring popularity. “You cannot use the results as a benchmark for a government’s performance. You cannot. There are some swing constituencies that you can seriously use the result to but not Atiwa”, the pollster emphasized.

Touching on the 2012 general elections, Mr Ephson says it would be very interesting. He says the stakes are high that no matter which way the win goes will spare doom for the losing party. He says “whichever party that loses the 2012 will break up. There are now entrenched factions in the two main political parties. If the NDC loses 2012, the party will suffer disunity and break up and so will the NPP. 2012 is going to be very interesting.

Abena Asiedua Tenkorang, Xfm 95.1, Accra, Ghana