Let’s prepare for what is coming: Economic downturn

Not to be the bearer of bad news but tougher times are ahead, so let’s brace ourselves. Someone asked me, “Is it the end of the world or what?” I didn’t know the answer to that question, but I knew countless prophets and prophesies have predicted the end of the world since the beginning of history and yet humans are still here, more innovative and adaptive than ever before. I bet the people of Pompeii thought the world had ended in 79 AD and yet thousands of years later we know their story. This question follows a series of bad news reported almost daily since 2019 when the COVID-19 Pandemic broke, which led to a cascade of devastating health, social and economic challenges that have forever changed the very way human societies operate around the world. We behaved the same way, spoke the same language, cried together, and hoped together. There were no rich people problems, poor people problems, black people problems, white people problems, women problems, or man problems; we just wanted to survive and be healthy, and it was global. As we began to see light at the end of the tunnel, we are being kicked left, right and center by the war in Ukraine which some analysts are calling ‘World War III’, rises in new communicable disease (Monkey Pox, Marburg Virus), the economic struggles all over the world including the so-called developed countries, global inflation, food shortages worldwide, climate change, political crises in many countries and mental health issues on the ascendance. We are all dealing with too much right now, and the world doesn’t seem like a safe place right now. Hey, maybe that’s why some billionaires are exploring the idea of living on Mars! So, is the world indeed coming to an end? I sought to find out. My search took me to history. I wanted to see if all these “novel” complications have been caused by the advent of technology and globalization. It would make sense one country's problems are affecting the other since we are so interconnected now than ever before, with the advent of the internet, mobile telecommunications, and the ease of global transportation, you know, 21st-century problems. SPOILER ALERT! It turns out it doesn’t. As Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” I then discovered a book called the Fourth Turning written by Neil Howes and William Strauss. These authors argue that history follows a clear and predictable pattern which comes in the form of a cycle, they called “the Saeculum”. They did this after analyzing a period of the last 500 years in history and particularly the history of the United States of America. They observed that there are four cycles that last around a lifetime typically 20 to 25 years in which there are significant shifts in the national mood and culture. Also, generations are shaped greatly by the external events that occurred around their formative years which causes them to adopt a particular set of characteristics. So, the next time you complain about millennials not being willing to work hard and want instant gratification, these authors say this is true, but Boomers and Gen X and Z have certain characteristics too. According to Howes and Strauss, history happens in stages, there’s a First turning, a Second turning, a Third, and a Fourth turning. 1. First Turning (High): A high is characterized by a renewal in communal life. The previous turning would be a crisis where people start demanding for change of the civic order which then happens during the high period. There’s more of a collective desire to invest, grow and strengthen. This in turn produces a period of economic prosperity and political stability. Toward the end of a High, there’s a longing for a spiritual void to be filled. 2. The Second Turning (Awakening): In this period there’s a shift from a focus on the outer world to the inner world. Spiritual and social ideas begin to take center stage in culture. “Society searches for soul over science, meaning over things.” The youth start attacking the established order”. Gradually this starts a shift from collectivism to individualism. Crime and substance abuse start ascending, gender distinctions narrow, and children receive minimal protection. 3. The Third Turning (Unravelling): This period marks the emphasis on liberties and freedoms, catapulted by the rise in the individualism of the Awakening. The culture focuses on pragmatism and less on spiritualism with an emphasis on self–reliance. Personal satisfaction is high but there’s fragmentation in culture. Moral debates become prevalent and decisive but public action becomes difficult. The authors stipulate in this era there’s a move toward libertarian policy-making and a further shift toward individualism. “Whether we realize it or not, we will be ready for a dramatic event to shock the nation out of its complacency and decay.” (Howes and Strauss, 1997). The mood of the nation is ripe for a Fourth turning. 4. The Fourth Turning (Crisis): Society is struck by an existential problem that attacks its very survival and success. The only imperative goal becomes solving the Crisis. This compels reunification toward national goals. People readily support public authority and policies and justify more interventions. The authors write, “What makes a crisis special is the public’s willingness to let leaders lead even when they falter and to let authorities be authoritative even when they make mistakes. Amid this civic solidarity, mediocre leaders can gain immense popularity; following bad policies can be made to work (or at least perceived as working); and at Pearl Harbour, even a spectacular failure does not undermine public support.” As Howes would state in a recent interview this is the time great historical leaders are made. Leaders are not born, Crisis makes them. Thinking about our socio-political dispensation and history became inevitable. Were these ideas true? The writers predicted in the 2020s we would be in a Fourth Turning, and it started in 2008. Happenings around the world appear to be manifesting these predictions, even though the work has been criticized to be subjective. A reflection on Ghanaian socio-economic history 20 years back since 2008 when the Crisis began, would bring us to 1980 for an Unravelling,1960 for the Awakening and 1940 for the High. According to Hallett, in ‘Africa Since 1875: A Modern History ’, in the 1940s, by the end of the Second World War, the Gold Coast colony was the richest and most educated territory in West Africa. As Howes and Neil rightly said at the end of this period there was a spiritual void that needed to be filled. This void was filled by the nationalist movement, UGCC, led by the Big Six in 1947. Africans began to increasingly get involved in the governance process and this fostered a growing sense of nationalism and desire for independence backed by a small group of urban workers and traders. Following the elitist works of writers like John Mensah Sarbah, there were changes in the way the British governed, but they didn’t come swiftly enough. Resulting in the shooting of the ex-servicemen and the Accra Riots of 1948. More participation in politics by Africans saw a growing number of significant changes that hadn’t been experienced anywhere on the African continent at the time. A few years down the line Ghana became the first African country to achieve independence and be a beacon of hope and freedom for many. 1960 would have been the Awakening. Nkrumah was now president of the nation, a country well endowed with natural resources and newfound freedom that was bound to succeed. Nkrumah spent resources deepening the idea of a common nation with one people and one destiny in the newly formed republic. And also, ideas of the African being capable of managing his fortunes throughout the continent. The African was to look to himself and his brothers for support rather than the outside world of the Whiteman that only seek to oppress us. Quickly the shift to individualism began, when Nkrumah started to be viewed as a dictator because of some of his policies especially wanting a one-party system and the idea of a united Africa, with one seat of government and currency. Every country started putting their interests first and for the citizenry it was corruption. Corruption plagued and caused a depletion in the nation’s resources. This led to a series of people who thought they could cleanse the nation of its cancer and decay but one after the other they all succumbed to the temptation of individualism. This caused a series of social issues that brought the country to its knees, while the economic gap between the rich and the poor kept widening. In 1980, all these had to come to a head, it had to unravel. I remember as a child, freedom and justice were words I heard a lot. I even heard that young Flt Lieutenant J.J Rawlings was the one that brought freedom and justice to Ghana. Only to find out it was on our Coat of Arms all along. So why would people think this? Perhaps that was the feeling he swept the nation with. But soon even he was to find that the woes of the country were deeper than what the surface made apparent. Going to the International Monetary Fund became his only choice. Proving that they were not running a charitable organization, they put the The Ghanaian economy is further in chains only helping us to repay debts through Structural Adjustment that only served them and left the Ghanaian economy and people bankrupt, according to the United States Congress Country Studies, the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress as part of the Country Studies/Area Handbook Series sponsored by the U.S. Department of the Army between 1986 and 1998. Moral debates became more prevalent seeing the removal of certain laws like the Criminal Libel which opened the media industry and removed the so-called “Culture of Silence”. We then became a nation of talkers with no action and real change. We also witness policy direction shift from libertarianism to individualism, with the advent of more social intervention policies, strangely not from a socialist ideological government. Some individuals also took advantage of the individualistic mindset of that era to amass wealth for themselves. Once again, the woes deepen even further. So, we come to 2008, the stipulated time the crisis began. Talk of the corruption causing our economic hardship had spread wide and far and people were ready for a change to a mild-mannered gentle President that was going to uproot corruption from its roots to plunge the nation into success and economic boom. To his credit, John Atta Mills tried hard. To see a mild-mannered man, storm the offices of CEPS giving them a stern speech after he had seen a documentary showing evidence of corruption by the investigative journalist, Anas Aremeyaw Anas, was a first. But again, it was the institutions we needed to strengthen, laws we needed to strictly enforce, and mindset that we needed to change, one man could not do it. There have been governments that have come and gone all promising the same since then, many mistakes to be learned from but in the end, we all know one basic truth. That if we stop the leak in a bucket, the bucket would hold water. The best thing the present government has done is to establish the Office of the Special Prosecutor with a specialized mandate to investigate and prosecute corruption and corruption-related offenses because that is the bane of our woes since independence. When the office is properly set up, it would stop the “leaks in the bucket”, save the nation millions lost through corruption, and make our institutions stronger. This would create a fair playing for the individual to take their destiny into their own hands. This is the only condition that would take us back into a High sooner than later. The individualism that brought rise to corruption must be changed through constant behavioral change. We are in an economic crisis, and the bi-partisan politics need to support the collective goal is fragmented, both firmly entrenched in their views on how the nation's fortunes can be turned around. Let’s pray a political crisis isn’t added to the mix as the nation is in desperate need of an event to either bring us together or further drive us apart. Interesting to note that in 1997, the book also made a few predictions that have come to pass. a) A global terrorist organization would blow up an aircraft b) An impasse over the US federal budget reaches a stalemate triggering a government shutdown c) Growing anarchy throughout the former Soviet republics prompted Russia to conduct training exercises around its borders. d) The CDC announces a new communicable virus that could take down the world. As J. F Kennedy said, “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.”. Today, the surviving author, Neil Howes predicts that the “winter” (the period of hardship) is going to last till 2030 and started in 2008. He advises people not to invest in fixed assets and high-risk investments or little-understood investments, like Cryptocurrencies and NFTs, they don’t have a proven track record and are too volatile. He further forecasts that people should move towards manufacturing, energy, and the food sector. Tangible investments are the way to go. A great example is real estate investment. It is the best time to lean on family and find a trusted network of people who share the same goals as you do. Reputation is what would carry you during a Fourth Turning, whether in life or business. BE INTERESTED IN POLITICS and political issues because that is what would reshape society again. You want your voice to matter in the decision-making. Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, predicts that the most powerful currency, American Dollar is going to become useless and what people need to invest in are gold and silver. An additional survival plan would be to grow as much food as possible to reduce your need to buy food which is going to get much worse as fertilizer shortages are hitting the country hard and inflation keeps rising. Not to mention that as food is becoming increasingly scarce countries would stop exporting and put their domestic markets first as is already happening with rice imports from South Asian countries. People are growing food on their tiny balconies in cities in China, and so can we. Also, let’s adopt a minimalist lifestyle. More is more, and more is never enough. We are in this inflation mess because we all want more. Demand pushes supply, so prices go up. The only way out is to control spending and debt. News flash: your government can’t help you on that front. Break the Twitch, a minimalist lifestyle blog defines “minimalism as a lifestyle practice focused on minimizing distractions that keep you from doing what matters to you.” Instead, of relying on the Central Bank to bring down inflation we can, the market can correct itself when we stop buying foreign-made products and domesticate. Don’t you just miss Dan Lartey! One district, one factory…we are still waiting. The blog explains the minimalist movement further to be about owning only what adds value and meaning to your life, and those of people you care about and just removing the rest. It’s about removing the clutter and using your time and energy for the things that remain. It’s time to be frugal and maximize your resources. Times are changing and we need to change with it. Some would thrive and others would barely survive but being physically and mentally prepared gives you a fighting chance. Some of the most successful global businesses today were started in recessions. There’s a calmness that comes with knowing nothing lasts forever, just wait for the tide to pass. Let’s prepare for what is coming and come out victorious on the other side. See you there.