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Opinions of Monday, 2 October 2023

Columnist: Kofi Busia Kyei

DDEP coupon payments: Key to financial markets recovery

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Stability amidst uncertainty:

In the realm of Ghana's financial markets, recent developments are signaling a welcome change—a shift from turbulence to stability and the return of investor confidence. At the heart of this transformation is the ongoing Domestic Debt Exchange Program (DDEP), which, after initial apprehension, is now displaying its potential to revitalize the market.

The key to this newfound “optimism” lies in the payments of "DDEP" coupons, affirming the government's commitment to fulfilling its financial obligations.

Preserving the pillars: Treasury bills unaffected:

One of the pivotal revelations that have bolstered confidence is the projection by the Young Investors Network that Treasury Bills are unlikely to be included in the Debt Exchange Program.

This projection aligns seamlessly with Fitch Ratings' stance, effectively reinforcing the notion that this crucial segment of Ghana's financial instrument landscape remains intact and unscathed. The implications of this alignment are profound; it means that one of the market's bedrocks, Treasury Bills, will continue to provide investors with a secure avenue for their funds.

Toby Illes, Senior Director of Emerging Market and African Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Ratings, articulated this, saying, “It would be suicidal…we don’t expect T-bills to be restructured. Just given the need for that financing tool, we wouldn’t expect that to be included…”; reports norvanreports.com.

The turning point: Implications of upcoming coupon payments:

Looking forward, the next 2 or 3 coupon payments under the DDEP scheme hold immense significance. These upcoming payments, scheduled to be disbursed in the near term, stand as more than just financial transactions; they are a litmus test for the resurgence of Ghana's financial markets. Their successful execution will be a resounding vote of confidence in the country's economic outlook and the government's commitment to maintaining financial stability.

Fueling growth: Liquidity injection and economic impact:

As we delve deeper into the significance of these impending coupon payments, it becomes evident that they will inject a considerable amount of liquidity into the financial markets. With these substantial sums set to flow into the economy, there will be a notable uptick in the capital available for investment. This bodes well for various financial market activities, from stock trading to bond investments and beyond.

Broad implications: From investor confidence to economic growth:

The infusion of liquidity into the financial markets has a cascading effect that touches various aspects of the economy. Firstly, it bolsters investor confidence, which is a cornerstone of any thriving financial market. Investors, especially local investors, are likely to view Ghana's financial instruments more favorably, leading to increased participation in the market.

Moreover, the availability of capital can stimulate investment in the private sector. Businesses seeking capital for expansion, innovation, or even startups will find a more supportive environment. This, in turn, can translate into increased economic activity, job creation, and ultimately, economic growth.

Government benefits and the Ghana Stock Exchange:

The influence of these coupon payments extends to the stock market as well. With more liquidity circulating in the economy, stock prices may experience an upward trajectory. Once cautious investors may re-enter the market, driving demand for equities and potentially resulting in higher share prices.

Additionally, the government can benefit from this liquidity infusion by potentially reducing its borrowing costs. As investor confidence strengthens and demand for government securities rises, the government may decide to issue debt instruments at a more favorable interest rate. This, in turn, can lead to cost savings and more efficient management of public finances.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the consistent payment of "DDEP" coupons and the alignment of projections by the Young Investors Network and Fitch Solutions have set a positive tone for Ghana's financial markets. As mentioned, the next 2 or 3 coupon payments hold the promise of injecting significant liquidity into the economy, rekindling investor confidence, and stimulating various financial market activities. The road to a thriving financial market is not without challenges, but these developments signify a pivotal step in the right direction one that we can all look forward to with optimism.