The World Bank has revised Ghana’s 2025 GDP growth forecast downward to 3.9%, missing the government’s target of 4.4%. This updated projection, published in the April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report, marks a slight dip from the earlier estimate of 4.3%.

According to the report, the downgrade stems from persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing external vulnerabilities affecting the Ghanaian economy.

Despite this adjustment, the Bank remains cautiously optimistic about the country’s medium-term outlook. Growth is expected to rebound to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, driven by policy reforms and gradual macroeconomic stabilization.

Climate Challenges Add to Economic Strain

The World Bank also flagged climate-related challenges—particularly unpredictable weather patterns—as key risks. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, two of the world’s top cocoa exporters, have seen significant disruptions in cocoa output due to erratic rainfall and temperature fluctuations.

Across Africa, climate-induced disasters such as floods and droughts are shaving off between 2% and 5% of national GDPs, while draining up to 9% of national budgets, the report noted.

Early Signs of Recovery Amidst Uncertainty

On a more positive note, Ghana is among a select group of African economies showing early signs of economic recovery in 2025. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)—a key business activity indicator—rose from 47.9 in January to 50.6 in March, signaling renewed investor confidence and improved demand following the 2024 general elections.

“Business activity in Mozambique and Ghana rebounded in February 2025,” the World Bank reported.
“The modest uptick in Ghana was driven by increased demand and a resurgence in new business engagements.”

Regional Outlook

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, overall growth is projected to edge up from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, with further expansion to 4.3% expected by 2026–2027. However, the region’s trajectory remains hampered by weak performances in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola.

Excluding these three economies, the rest of the region is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2027.

Nonetheless, the World Bank cautioned that global economic uncertainty, fiscal challenges, and climate-related disruptions remain significant risks to a stable and inclusive recovery across the continent.