Will the over-confident Black Stars outshine Zambia?

The over confidence that was apparent in the 7th minute of the semi-final at Afcon 2012 when Ghana were awarded a penalty and Asamoah Gyan seemed more interested in running to the corner flag to dance Makossa even before beating Kennedy Mweene from the penalty spot, has been oozing in the Ghanaian media in the build up to the premier game on the African continent slated for Saturday 9th June, 2012!

A 7-0 mauling of the Likuena of Lesotho has lifted the collective spirits of a nation whose hearts were broken by a spirited Zambian side at the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations. It does not matter to the Black Stars' fans that the context of their win against Lesotho ought to be viewed against a backdrop of the football prowess of its opponent. The Likuenas are not 170th in the FIFA World Rankings by accident.

Prior to its game against the Black Stars, Lesotho had sealed its fate by arriving in Accra, Ghana at 21:30 GMT on a Thursday night after a six hour flight from Johannesburg, South Africa. On Friday, the day of the match, Lesotho had to take another flight, this time for 30 minutes, into Kumasi before facing the Black Stars nine hours later! They had been stranded in South Africa for two days due to visa hitches.

To add insult, Lesotho were without their key midfielder, Motlalepula Mofolo who was banished from the squad for allegedly leading a protest over allowances. Another of their key player, Bokang 'Lefty' Mothoana was suspended for accumulating two yellow cards. Also missing was Lehlomela Ramabele, their Botswana-based striker who had a bereavement. Both Bokang and Lehlomela had scored vital home and away goals against Burundi during the preliminary round.

Given the context of that match, it is not surprising that Lesotho tamely capitulated in such disastrous fashion. If it was a boxing match, the referee would have declared it a "no-contest"! Of course that is not to say Lesotho would have won the match in Ghana.

Now Zambia is definitely a different kettle of fish from the Likuena of Lesotho. Playing at home, in a newly built Levy Mwanawasa stadium in Ndola, the Chipolopolo will seek to put their World Cup campaign back on its rails. It will also be the first time that Zambia will play before its home fans since winning the Africa Cup of Nations.

Ghana's attack

The present Ghana side does not instil similar terror in its opponents. The Black Stars have exciting talent in Jordan Ayew who is an offensive threat if given room to make runs and turn defenders. He scored two goals against a jaded Lesotho side. The injured Andre Ayew's place on the wing looks set to be taken up by the new Ghanaian 'sensation' Christian Atsu. The Ghanaian media has exhausted all adjectives in describing his potential. Whether he will hit the heights on his first away game for Ghana is another matter. Dominic Adiyah is expected to take Asamoah Gyan's role as a centre forward. He is yet to establish credibility in this role and, for good reason, he has been over-looked in the past.

Black Stars' attacking midfield

The main cog here is the unsung, Kwadwo Asamoah, who is not only imaginative in midfield but can also create goal-scoring opportunities. He is Ghana's best player and undoubtedly its brain. Zambia will need to stop this player from dictating the match. Sulley Muntari, on the other hand, is in the twilight of his career and has lost yards of pace but his left foot is still educated and it can be lethal in dead-ball situations. If allowed time on the ball, Muntari will prove to be a disturbing menace.

Defensive Midfield

It will be a surprising strategy if Ghana will set out to attack Zambia. The probable scenario is that they will seek to contain Zambia and try to play on the counter. As seen at the Africa Cup, Ghana loves to deploy two defensive midfielders to sit in front of their back four. Against Lesotho they deployed Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu and Derrick Boateng, though it will not be surprising if Anthony Annan starts on Saturday in Ndola.

It will be a very long afternoon for the Chipolopolo supporters if, God-forbid, Herve Renard decides to play a lone man upfront in Emmanuel Mayuka because with the two Ghanaian defensive midfielders dropping to help in defence, the Zambian lone marksman might as well not emerge from the dressing room!

Ghana's Defence

It is this area of Ghana's make-up that should inspire Chipolopolo to play furiously attacking football. Against Lesotho, they featured two debutants, Jerry Akaminto in central defence and Harrison Afful at left back. The Zambian strike force will have an opportunity to test the credentials of the Ghana's latest defensive duo, should they be selected. John Boye and Samuel Inkoom should complete the Black Stars defence.

Ghana's play usually involves the wing backs pushing up offensively but if Zambia will be in attack mode, they need not worry about this aspect of Ghana's play. In any event, the crossing of balls by Inkoom, as seen at the Africa Cup, is not the best in the business. If he can be kept on his back foot by a pacy winger, he is likely to crack and create a supply route upfront.

Zambia's back against the wall

For Zambia there is no margin of error in this game. They have to play like a house on fire. A loss or draw will, in theory, diminish Zambia's chances of qualifying from this group. A loss could also mean that Herve Renard will have no motivation to stay on as coach especially because the sudden managerial vacancy across the Limpopo River might just prove irresisitible. Potentially, there could be a parting of ways, in so many directions, if Zambia falters at this stage.

The Chipolopolo squad

Defensively, Emmanuel Mbola from Porto is likey to be restored to the left back position possibly with instructions to push up and ping in crosses for the strikers. Stophila Sunzu and Hichani Himoonde should continue their central defensive pairing with Davies Nkausa at right back. The latter is set to be tested by Jordan Ayew and he will need to be at his best in reading the Ghanaian's movement and trickery. He has to snuff out the threat posed by Jordan. If Zambia's goal minder, Kennedy Mweene can be at his commanding best, then little might go wrong in Zambia's rear guard.

The midfield is Zambia's weakest link in the team. Zambia has difficulty in dictating the pace of a game because of not having that player to hold the ball and generally dominate the midfield. Nathan Sinkala has to improve his passing and needs to have a lot more bite as a defensive midfielder. He will have to ensure that Kwadwo Asamoah is starved of the ball thereby isolating the sriker Dominic Adiyah. Isaac Chansa appears to be in the good graces of Herve Renard but he has had little game time at his South African side Orlando Pirates since he returned from the Africa Cup. William Njovu could be a ready-made replacement as he posseses even more more guile than Chansa and can also be good on the offensive. However, he has hardly had a chance to have a sustained run in the team to garner enough confidence.

In this scheme of things, Renard will have to go with pace upfront. It is difficult to read what he might do but he has always had faith in Mayuka, Katongo and Kalaba in attack. Though there continues to be disquiet among the fans as to why Jonas Sakuwaha, the El Merreikh striker is ignored, it appears unlikey that Renard will suddenly develop faith in him. We might still witness an unchanged frontline with a likely variation of James Chamanga starting with Mayuka supported by Kalaba and Katongo from the wide areas.

Conclusion

Whatever formations and strategies may be on display on Saturday, 9th June, 2012, the reality is that Zambia will need to come out and attack Ghana and score. The Black Stars will know that even a draw will be good enough for them. They can afford the luxury of sitting back and absorbing the Chipolopolo pressure.

Gilbert Phiri

www.newafricanfootball.com