Opinions of Wednesday, 4 November 2026

Columnist: Adnan Adams

From GH¢3bn Allegation to GH¢2bn Industry Target: The flawed math behind the NLA-KGL reports

External Consultant to KGL, Dr Razak Opoku External Consultant to KGL, Dr Razak Opoku

Public debate surrounding Ghana’s lottery industry intensified on October 29, 2026, following questions about discrepancies between investigative reports published by a local media outlet and market figures relating to revenue generated by the National Lottery Authority (NLA) and its third-party collaborator, KGL Technology Limited.

Questions have been raised over why a media outlet reported in September 2025 that the NLA had "given away" a prime business valued at GH¢3 billion to KGL in exchange for a "paltry" annual payment of GH¢170 million, only to report in October 2026 that the NLA stood to benefit about GH¢2 billion from all licensed Private Lotto Operators (PLOs) combined, including KGL.

Industry watchers, legal experts and civil society groups are questioning the source and validity of the GH¢3 billion valuation cited in the earlier report.

The GH¢3 billion claim versus historical figures

In September 2025, a media outlet published an investigative report alleging that the state had lost billions of cedis through its arrangement with KGL Technology Limited.

However, historical data from the NLA indicate that the entire state lottery sector did not generate GH¢3 billion in annual revenue.

Between 2013 and 2020, total revenue generated by the NLA over the eight-year period amounted to approximately GH¢2.76 billion, while payments made directly into the Consolidated Fund over the same period totalled GH¢182 million.

Reacting to the report in late 2025, Executive Director of the Chamber of Indigenous Business and Investors (CIBI), Alistair Nelson, criticised what he described as a mathematical flaw in the publication.

"It is extremely misleading and factually inaccurate for anyone to claim the NLA handed over a GH¢3 billion business to KGL. The NLA's entire historical revenue over eight years combined didn't even reach 3 billion Cedis. To suggest KGL received a single-year business of that volume for 'peanuts' was a complete fabrication that ignored prize payouts, operational costs, and actual historical yields," he said.

From GH¢3 billion 'giveaway' to GH¢2 billion industry target

Updated reports in October 2026 indicate that total projections across the lottery sector, covering all 29 registered private lotto operators and collaborators such as KGL, Game Park, Zeta Technologies and Alpha Lotto, stand at approximately GH¢2 billion.

Financial records for the preceding fiscal year show that KGL Technology Limited alone contributed more than GH¢173 million to the NLA, while the other 29 private operators collectively contributed approximately GH¢44.9 million.

Industry analyst and financial commentator Kwaku Mensah questioned the difference between the figures cited in the two reports.

"If today the realistic projection for the entire industry, including KGL and nearly thirty other operators, is placed around 2 billion Ghana Cedis, then where on earth did a media outlet extract the 3 billion Cedi figure for KGL alone back in 2025? The numbers simply do not add up. It points to either a fundamental misunderstanding of gross turnover versus net revenue or deliberate sensationalism," he said.

A senior executive familiar with the NLA's regulatory operations, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also explained the distinction between gross lottery sales and the revenue retained by the state.

"Gross wagers are not net profit. When people play the lottery, up to 50% or more goes straight into paying winning tickets and prizes. Another chunk covers taxes, technical infrastructure, USSD session fees, and vendor commissions. Conflating total gross ticket sales with net state revenue shows a lack of financial literacy. KGL's payment of over 170 million annually to the state represented a far higher yield than what the state achieved when it managed the operations alone," the executive said.

Calls for journalistic accountability

Against the backdrop of the figures, stakeholders are calling on media organisations to uphold high standards of financial scrutiny when reporting on public-private partnerships and revenue arrangements.

They argue that reports involving large financial figures should clearly distinguish between gross turnover, operational costs, prize payouts and net revenue to avoid misleading the public.

A civil society representative in Accra said: "When a media outlet presents sensational figures like GH¢3 billion without factoring in operational realities, it misleads the public and damages legitimate business agreements. Today's narrative completely undermines yesterday's claims."