For many years, when investors looked at Africa, the conversation was almost predictable.

They looked at inflation. They looked at exchange rates. They looked at government debt. They looked at whether a country could pay its bills.

These were the numbers that determined confidence.

But Africa’s investment story is beginning to change.

The biggest risks facing the continent today are no longer only found in central bank reports or government budgets. They are increasingly found in election calendars, security developments, changing weather patterns and the growing frustration of a young population searching for opportunities.

A country can have falling inflation and improving economic growth, yet still face uncertainty that affects businesses, investors and ordinary citizens.

This is the reality captured in the June 2026 Africa Risk Dimension Report by Sompa & Partners, which assessed Africa’s 15 largest economies by nominal GDP across seven major risk areas, including political stability, economic conditions, security, climate exposure and infrastructure.

The findings present a continent experiencing two realities at the same time.

Africa is becoming economically stronger. But the risks surrounding that growth are becoming more complicated.

Using a 175-point risk scale, the report ranked Nigeria as the highest-risk market among the countries assessed with a score of 115, while Egypt recorded the lowest risk score at 57.

Ghana, despite its recent economic recovery, ranked 13th with a score of 67, reflecting both the progress made and the challenges that remain.

The Economic Recovery Story Is Real — But It Is Not the Entire Story

Across Africa, there are signs that some of the continent’s deepest economic pressures are beginning to ease.

Ghana is one of the strongest examples. Just a few years ago, the country was facing one of its most difficult economic periods, with inflation rising above 50%, pressure on the cedi and concerns about debt sustainability.

Today, the picture looks different.

Inflation has fallen sharply, Ghana has completed its debt restructuring with more than 95% creditor participation, and the country exited its IMF programme earlier than expected.

These developments helped Ghana record one of the stronger economic risk positions in the report.

But the lesson from Ghana indicates that economic recovery does not automatically remove other risks.

While inflation has improved, businesses still have to think about issues such as energy reliability, climate shocks and security pressures from instability spreading southward from the Sahel region.

Africa’s economic recovery is happening. But recovery alone does not guarantee resilience.

The New Investment Question: Who Can Manage Political Uncertainty?

One of the strongest findings from the report is that politics has become one of the biggest factors shaping investment decisions.

In previous years, investors often focused on whether economies were growing fast enough.

Today, they are also asking different questions.

Who will lead next?

Will institutions remain stable?

Will political transitions happen peacefully?

Countries such as Tanzania, Cameroon, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola recorded elevated political risks because of election disputes, succession uncertainty and governance concerns.

Tanzania, for example, recorded an overall risk score of 86/175, while Cameroon scored 88/175, largely due to uncertainty surrounding leadership transition.

The implication is significant.

For investors, political calendars are becoming as important as economic calendars.

A country’s next election may now matter as much as its next inflation figure.

Security Risks Are Moving Closer to Africa’s Growth Centres

For years, insecurity was often viewed as a challenge concentrated in a few conflict zones.

That is changing.

The report highlights the spread of security risks from the Sahel region into neighbouring economies, with extremist groups increasingly using northern Ghana and northern Côte d’Ivoire as logistics routes.

Nigeria remains the most exposed market, receiving the highest overall risk score of 115/175, with security rated the maximum 25/25.

The challenge extends beyond terrorism.

Kidnapping, organised crime and insecurity affect businesses through higher operating costs, disrupted supply chains and reduced investor confidence.

Africa’s security challenges are becoming regional. A problem in one part of the continent can increasingly affect economies far beyond the original conflict zone.

Climate Change Is Becoming a Balance Sheet Issue

A farmer worrying about rainfall.

A manufacturer worrying about electricity.

A city worrying about flooding.

These may appear like separate issues, but they are connected by one growing challenge: climate uncertainty.

The report identifies what it describes as “climate whiplash”, rapid movement between drought and flooding, affecting countries including Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The impact is economic.

Floods destroy infrastructure. Drought reduces agricultural output. Unpredictable weather increases costs for businesses.

Climate risk is no longer something companies can discuss only as a sustainability issue.

It is becoming a financial issue.

Africa’s Infrastructure Opportunity Remains Too Large to Ignore

Despite these challenges, the report clearly revealed that investors are not abandoning Africa.

They are adapting.

Across the continent, major infrastructure projects continue to reshape economic possibilities.

Morocco’s preparation for the 2030 World Cup, Angola’s Lobito Corridor, Uganda’s Lake Albert oil project and Tanzania’s Standard Gauge Railway represent billions of dollars of investment aimed at unlocking long-term growth.

The opportunity remains significant.

But infrastructure alone cannot deliver transformation.

The countries that benefit most will be those that combine investment with strong institutions, predictable policies and stability.

Africa’s Young Population: Opportunity or Pressure?

Africa’s greatest advantage may also become one of its biggest challenges.

The continent has one of the youngest populations in the world.

But a young population only becomes an economic advantage when there are enough opportunities.

The report highlights rising youth unemployment across several markets: • South Africa’s youth unemployment remains around 61%. • Tunisia’s youth unemployment is approximately 38%. • Morocco’s is between 35% and 37%.

Across Africa, frustration among young people is increasingly influencing politics, from Kenya’s Gen-Z protests to growing youth movements elsewhere.

The question facing African economies is simple:

Can they create opportunities faster than expectations grow?

Africa’s Next Growth Chapter Will Be Defined by Resilience

Africa’s economic story is not one of decline. It is a story of transition.

The continent is moving from an era where inflation, debt and currency pressures dominated discussions into one where political stability, security, climate resilience and human capital will determine success.

The opportunity remains enormous.

But the winners of Africa’s next investment cycle will not only be the countries that grow fastest.

They will be the countries that can manage uncertainty best.

Africa is stabilising economically.