The emerging consensus across industry groups Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), particularly Petroleum Product Analysis Report for 2025, oversight bodies (PIAC), and sector reports (2025–2026) are clear: over 200 million litres of fuel cannot be accounted for, resulting in more than GH¢600 million in lost tax revenue.

This clearly indicates that at the ports, up and down streams, leakages are rampant. At the operational level, the Chamber of OMCs directive in their report is clear: track every litre in real time using Automatic Tank Gauging systems, enforce routine stock reconciliation, and eliminate blind spots in depot and refinery movements. This signals a shift from paper-based oversight to system-based enforcement, where leakages thrive.

The key questions are; If Strategic Mobilization Limited previously engaged, embedded these earlier, why are these controls not observed anymore? How did the country get? Remember, these questions cannot be answered properly without analyzing performance trends from 2019 to 2024, revenue performance 2024, Customs revenue for 2024 and revenue performance for 2025.

Revenue Performance Trends

First, in terms of performance trends from 2019 to 2024, Ghana Revenue Authority data shows strong nominal tax revenue growth, from GH¢43.9bn in 2019 to GH¢153.6bn in 2024, with peak growth of 49.3% in 2023 and 35.8% in 2024. Second, for revenue performance of 2024, Ghana Revenue Authority exceeded its 2024 revenue target, collecting GH¢153.6bn against a target of GH¢146.0bn, a 5.2% overperformance and 35.8% growth year-on-year.

However, performance was uneven: Direct Taxes and Customs exceeded targets, while Indirect Taxes underperformed (-21.5%), highlighting structural weaknesses despite strong headline revenue gains. Again, for Customs revenue only, Ghana Revenue Authority shows a strong surge, rising from GH¢16.1bn in 2021 to GH¢45.3bn in 2024, nearly tripling in three years. This sharp growth indicates improved collections and higher trade values.

In a sharp contrast, for the first eleven months of 2025, total revenue and grants stood at GH¢187.87bn (13.4% of GDP), below the target of GH¢201.37bn (14.4% of GDP), indicating an overall revenue shortfall. Domestic revenue also underperformed at GH¢186.57bn versus a target of GH¢199.05bn, reflecting weaker-than-expected collection across key sources, especially taxes, oil & gas receipts, and grants.

Non-oil tax revenue, Ghana’s most stable base, fell short by 4.5%, signaling persistent structural inefficiencies or leakages/ in core tax administration. Oil tax revenue, however, exceeded expectations by 31.2%, showing strong gains in that segment. In contrast, oil and gas receipts collapsed to GH¢5.92bn, missing targets by 64.2% and declining sharply year-on-year by 66.6%, a major fiscal concern. Other revenue was broadly stable but slightly below target, while grants also underperformed significantly, falling 44.1% below projection and declining year-on-year.

The Economy Cannot Absorb Revenue Leakages

Ghana’s fiscal recovery remains fragile and depends heavily on credible domestic revenue mobilization. The World Bank’s 8th Ghana Economic Update reported that Ghana’s tax collection averaged only 13.2% of GDP between 2017 and 2021, which was well below peers and about 8 percentage points short of Ghana’s estimated tax capacity of 21.2% of GDP (World Bank, 2024). This means every avoidable leakage in petroleum taxation, Customs administration, and non-oil revenue directly weakens fiscal sustainability, budget credibility, service delivery, and the government’s ability to protect citizens from future shocks.

Accountability Must Move From Reports to Enforcement

The accountability problem is not theoretical. The Auditor-General’s 2024 report on public boards, corporations and statutory institutions identified GH¢18.42 billion in total irregularities, including GH¢15.57 billion in recoverable amounts and GH¢2.84 billion in administrative infractions (Ghana Audit Service, 2025).

The same report recommended strict implementation of audit recommendations to ensure financial discipline in the management of public resources (Ghana Audit Service, 2025). The Ministry of Finance has also announced an audit of outstanding payables and commitments, commitment authorization controls before government contracts are approved, new fiscal rules, and an Independent Fiscal Council; these reforms must be applied with urgency to revenue systems as well (Ministry of Finance, 2025).

Critical Questions for Government and Revenue Authorities

1.What was the game-changer between 2019 and 2024 that enabled GRA to record major revenue gains?

2.If ERDMS, NPA platforms and ICUMS remain in place, why are petroleum and revenue leakages still ongoing?

3.Why is non-oil tax revenue consistently underperforming despite repeated reforms and digitalization efforts?

4.What explains the dramatic collapse in oil and gas receipts despite rising oil-tax performance: pricing, production, accounting, reporting, or enforcement failures?

5.If oil tax revenue exceeds targets, why is overall petroleum-related revenue collapsing at the same time?

6.Are there systemic leakages in Customs, domestic tax administration, petroleum monitoring, or upstream oil revenue channels that are not being captured in official figures?

7.Which officials, institutions, and private actors are accountable for the missing volumes, delayed reconciliations, and weak enforcement?

Persistent gaps between targets and actual collections, especially in non-oil taxes and oil and gas receipts, suggest deep inefficiencies and possible leakages within the revenue system. The reported unaccounted fuel volumes and associated tax losses reinforce concerns about weak enforcement across the petroleum value chain. Ghana must choose transparency over silence, enforcement over excuses, and public accountability over institutional delay.