Ghana’s adoption of the Publican AI system for customs valuation marks a bold step toward digitization and revenue assurance.

However, the March 2026 directive mandating its use introduces structural risks that could disrupt trade flows, distort pricing, and undermine investor confidence if not carefully recalibrated.

The directive requires customs officers to use Publican AI outputs as the “primary basis” for valuation and prohibits them from assessing duties below those values.

While this may strengthen revenue collection, it fundamentally alters the legal framework governing customs valuation. Under the Customs Act, 2015 (Act 891) and the WTO Customs Valuation Agreement, import duties must be based on the transaction value.

This principle ensures predictability and fairness in trade. By effectively setting AI outputs as a floor, the system risks functioning as a de facto minimum value regime. Such regimes disregard market realities and impose artificial pricing benchmarks.

The commercial implications are already evident. A recent Bill of Entry assessed a used 2012 Toyota Voxy at nearly GH¢14 million, generating duties of approximately GH¢7.96 million. This is disproportionate to the economic value of the asset.

For businesses, this creates severe cash flow challenges. Importers must either pay inflated duties upfront or face delays while seeking redress, all while incurring demurrage costs.

This unpredictability affects pricing, disrupts supply chains, and introduces uncertainty into trade financing. SMEs are particularly vulnerable. Transparency is critical. AI-driven valuation must be explainable and auditable.

Businesses need clarity on how values are derived. Data governance is also key. The use of AI platforms raises questions about compliance with Ghana’s Data Protection Act. The solution is to refine not reverse the reform.

Publican AI should function as a risk tool, while officers retain discretion to apply statutory rules. A fast-track dispute system is essential to reduce delays and demurrage exposure. Ultimately, sustainable revenue depends on balancing enforcement with facilitation. Without this, “impossible” bills will hinder trade and growth.