Ghana's foreign exchange market is under mounting strain as dollar scarcity intensifies, with the Bank of Ghana (BoG) reporting interbank rates that mask deeper accessibility woes for businesses.

As of today, September 16, 2025, the cedi is trading at approximately GH¢12.26 for buying and GH¢12.28 for selling against the US dollar on the interbank market, a slight depreciation from last week's levels, signaling renewed pressure on the local currency.

While official figures suggest stability, the reality on the ground paints a picture of frustration: commercial banks are increasingly reluctant to release dollars to customers, citing internal allocation limits and regulatory scrutiny, forcing importers to seek alternatives in the thriving black market where premiums can push effective rates to GH¢13.60 or higher.

This isn't mere rumor, importers across sectors, from manufacturing to agriculture, are vocal about the hurdles.

Despite BoG's repeated denials of an outright shortage, businesses report long queues, rejected requests, and arbitrary caps on dollar disbursements at bank counters.

The central bank's crackdown on unauthorized forex dealings, including black market transactions, has only heightened tensions, as unlicensed operators continue to fill the void with rates that eclipse official benchmarks.

For many, turning to the parallel market is no longer a choice but a necessity, inflating costs and eroding the benefits of any cedi appreciation seen earlier in the year.

The ripple effects are most acute in import-heavy industries like cement production, where clinker, the essential raw material, is predominantly sourced overseas and paid for in dollars.

With banks clamping down on forex access, cement importers face not just the headline rate of GH¢12.26 but potentially 5-10% more on the black market, driving up procurement expenses overnight.

This scarcity exacerbates existing challenges, such as port delays and rising global clinker prices, creating a perfect storm for cost escalations.

Industry insiders whisper that without swift intervention, these pressures could translate to higher ex-factory prices for cement bags, squeezing margins for producers and ultimately hitting distributors and builders.

As the dollar's value climbs in practical terms, fueled by seasonal import demands, reduced remittances, and global uncertainties, delays in securing forex mean prolonged cash tie-ups and opportunistic hikes from black market dealers.

For cement distributors watching their inventories dwindle amid softening demand, this is a critical juncture. The advice from market watchers is unanimous: stock up now while current prices hold, opting for bulk purchases to insulate against the impending wave of adjustments.

A single bag at GH¢85 today could easily tip over GH¢95 if dollar access remains choked, turning short-term savings into long-term regrets.

BoG has promised monitoring and potential interventions to ease the squeeze, but with black market activity undeterred and banks prioritizing large corporates, small-to-medium importers are left vulnerable.

In this environment of uncertainty, proactive buying isn't just prudent, it's essential to safeguard projects and profits in Ghana's construction boom.