JJ's bluff: Can he make it?

Anyone who has read the book Jurassic Park or seen the movie can easily relate to Jerry Rawlings’ recent decision to quit. He created a monster that has gotten out of hand and is eating up its creator.

The NDC was spawned from the loins of the PNDC, a military junta that Rawlings created on his second “tour of duty.” But some who are now on the opposite ends of the spectrum in the party now claim that technically, Mr. Rawlings and his wife are not the founding fathers as some claim. Be that as it may, the couple now holds sway in the NDC and there is nothing that can be done about it: founding members or not.

In any case, having led the NDC since its inception, and having put their imprint on the party as seen in the party’s modus operandi, the argument for the legitimacy or otherwise of the Rawlingses in the party is moot.

There are a lot of reasons why Mr. Rawlings has to stay in the NDC and those are why he cannot quit, not at this time. He needs the power, whether or not he is president; Rawlings would not want to destroy his own baby; and, of course the Missis is not likely to acquiesce to the former president’s threat.

In or out of government, Jerry Rawlings has been very vocal. He is a megalomaniac who gets his kicks from working the crowd and he has done it for those three decades he has fixated himself on Ghanaian politics. For most of the time, however, Mr. Rawlings used the forum and platform offered him – or did he take it? – to divide first the nation and then his own party. What the result has been is what he is seeing and now he is at his wits end not knowing what to do to redeem the situation.

If members of the NDC would be realistic and not hide their shame in their usual propagandist sand, they should admit that once Rawlings handed over the baton to “Asomdweehene”, John Atta Mills, the ground rules changed. New king new law is not new to Ghanaians and that is exactly what is happening in the NDC. Perhaps what helped change the party was the pre-election prediction that voting for Atta Mills would be voting for Jerry Rawlings. And, of course, Rawlings also did not help. He “won” the elections for the NDC. He campaigned in every nook and cranny of Ghana. He made sure Tain went to the NDC: he assumed control of the security apparatus in that little corner of Ghana issuing death threats, even to the sitting president not to proceed to Tain. He was therefore very confident of his comeback. He stirred the hornets nest and Atta Mills and his cohorts saw through Rawlings motives and designed their strategies.

In the initial stages of Atta Mills, Rawlings virtually had the stage. He it was who ordered the overhauling of the management of the security apparatus of the nation. And that include the stop order for the recruitment of the 420 newly enlisted and the choice of minister of defense and service chiefs. And then more.

When the public perception of Dr. Mills began to take a nosedive so early in his administration, Mills realized the need to “re-assert” himself. And that also included reactivating Prophet T. B. Joshua, the Nigerian spiritualist to whom Mills attributes his success at the elections for spiritual protection and divine counsel. Then came the emergence of the various factions within the party and around the presidency. Then also began the protestations and the bitter and acrimonious criticisms of Mills administration by no less a person than the founder of the NDC.

Why is it that the same person who wants to see Mills take full charge of his government is so angry because his advice is not being sought or taken? Simple, and Ghanaians know: Rawlings still wants to be in charge. No one is better qualified to lead Ghana in his estimation and therefore anyone who spurns his advice becomes an enemy. He feels irrelevant and so his only recourse is to quit. But can he?

Rawlings cannot leave the NDC because he needs the party. At this point he has the power, not the clout. And that is what is driving him crazy. What Jerry Rawlings hates is to be alone, and if he leaves the NDC he would lose all those who cozy up to him, except those of the same mien as he, the Spio Garbrahs, the Tony Aidoos and probably the rabble rousers he has nurtured over the years as his instruments of torture and violence. But even they would eventually go as they would also be rendered irrelevant. A political party, once it is founded belongs to the members, even though it is always one person’s or a few people’s idea to bring the party into being. Rawlings has always had his way and for the first time in his political life he is being sidelined to his chagrin and embarrassment.

Why this is happening is that Mr. Rawlings does not understand politics as the management of ideas from different ideological perspectives for the common good. If he has any sense in his head, he would rather learn from his mistakes than to threaten. Can Rawlings found another political party and grow it into a viable organization? The answer is a resounding NO. The man has never managed anything in his life. He has always commanded and taken. How what he demands comes to him he does not care and mind.

He has tried a few things in the past in his bid to exercise complete control over Ghana. He instigated the gory deaths of the three judges and the retired military officer. Countless Ghanaians were executed on his orders. Several languished in his jails throughout his 19 years of oppression, but Ghanaians still prevailed. What is happening in his party now is an indication that his strategies never paid off in the first place. Secondly, since he was hardly involved in the day-to-day administration of the party the real nurturers have now taken over.

Rawlings cannot leave the NDC because he needs to be in it to make sure that he can wake up the next morning in his own bed. Those he detests and fears are now in charge and they include those who know his modus operandi. Kodjo Tsikata, P. V. Obeng and the Ahwois, to mention a few, are on the side of those he calls bastards. These are the intellectual backbone of the party and those left with him are mere rabble rousers. Ekwow Spio Garbrah is not as trustworthy as he hardly identifies himself intellectually with the Rawlingses. Let him get the presidential nod and win, and the Rawlingses would be severely sorry. As he – Rawlings – kicked most of those who helped him get what he wanted, so would Spio also kick him. By then, however, Rawlings would have been even less relevant.

If the NDC loses the elections in 2012, they would lay the blame on Rawlings, not on Mills. His constant anti-Mills boom speeches and insults have devalued the party in the eyes of many Ghanaians. It did not take Kufuor or the NPP to point out the weaknesses in the NDC, but Rawlings himself. The message to Ghanaians is that they voted for the wrong party. Most Ghanaians now see the NDC as a party with a split personality. While Rawlings is condemning Mills’ ineptitude, the government is blaming everything on the past government. The NDC barely, just barely, won the elections and Rawlings is quite aware of that. Whatever change the NDC promised is not what Ghanaians expected. They do not think arbitrary arrests of former NPP functionaries would help the situation and neither are Rawlings’ tantrums. Rawlings is unwittingly providing the ammunition for an NPP victory in 2012. Would Rawlings rather see the NPP back in the saddle in 2012? Lastly, Mrs. Rawlings is now in her political elements. With the NDC victory, she thought of her rebirth as a de facto first lady, but Naadu bared her teeth – “you had your time; please, allow me,” Mrs. Mills bellowed to her. Well, now Nana Konadu resorts to another tack: she wants to become the NDC’s first vice chair. The motive: to be the capo de tutti capo (the mafia don), to use the language of the “family.” Mrs. Rawlings would never allow Mr. Rawlings to quit the NDC. She has declared many times that the party is theirs and insistent as she has always been, she would prevail upon her man to stay even if to be sidelined. She has the hindsight to know that they are safe in the NDC than out of it. Mr. Rawlings better listen.

Rawlings has always been hubristic, always ever ready to shove friends and acquaintances onto the curb. He has always lived in a cocoon of self-deceit; the mindset of most dictators: no permanent friends, but permanent interests. He characteristically thought that it was the only way to maintain his power. But reality is catching up fast.

Like those scientists in Michael Chrichton’s Jurassic Park, Mr. Rawlings is now being gobbled up by the monster he created. He CANNOT quit; he would be swallowed up before he knows.