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Opinions of Monday, 5 September 2005

Columnist: Agyepong, Benjamin Opoku

We Are Coming Back- NDC?

I was indeed taken aback, to say the very least, after reading the statement attributed to the special assistant to Professor Mills following their successful defense of the Odododiodio constituency seat. I have some few questions for the Professor?s assistant regarding the political equation of the parliamentary representation.

1. What is the percentage of change in the parliamentary seats of the various parties since the declaration of the 2004 election results?

2. How many of the by-elections won by the NDC were previously held by NPP candidates following the 2004 elections? In effect, how many seats had the NDC managed to snatch from the NPP since 2004 and vice versa?

3. If NDC candidate wins a seat previously held by an NDC candidate, is there any news? Similarly, if NPP candidate wins a previously NPP held seat, there is equally no news.

If the answers to the above questions is 0% then it is true to say that nothing had changed since 2004 elections. Why then is the NDC so enthused, and why are they utterly optimistic of 2008 if indeed nothing had changed? Making projections from statistically insignificant hypothesis could indeed be said to be a fallacious and in this instance could be said to be a fallacy of hasty generalization. If winning Odododiodio is a sign of impending victory, then I beg to ask the special assistant, why his party did not win 2004 since NDC won both Asowase and Odododiodio in 2004?

It is possible that NDC could win 2008, but to base this conviction on the two by-elections won by the party in spite of the fact that the seats were previously held by NDC is politically inaccurate and unacceptable statistically and the Professor?s assistant must be expedient enough to know this simple logical deduction does not hold water.



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