I have read with keen interests recent posturing from the Brong Ahafo region as some writers lobby to have the running mate for the NPP selected from that region. Central among these are Kofi Appiah’s piece entitled “This is your 'star', Brong Ahafo” featured on Ghanaweb on Tuesday, 25 October 2011 see http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/ artikel.php?ID=222252&comment=0#com, as well as Daniel Anokye’s piece “To be President or not to be” in the Daily Graphic of Monday, 24 October 2011, page 13, in which he tried to provide some statistical basis for routing for a running made from the Brong Ahafo Region. I have also noted with similar interest Frank Atiase’s piece on Ghanaweb purported to be a report of the Economics Intelligence Unit which states that some NPP blocks are routing for the selection of Alan Kyeremanteng as running mate (see “NPP Under Pressure To Nominate Running Mate For Elections 2012 – EIU” available at http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/politics/artikel.php?ID=222251

In August 2010, I published a feature piece that provided some analysis of the choices that the NPP has to make in the matter of choosing a running mate. In the light of the current posturing, I think it is worthwhile to remind readers of that article, which can still be found at the following link http://opinion.myjoyonline.com/pages/feature/201008/51320.php. It is important that readers interested in this discussion trail read that article again. As the referenced article still speaks for itself, I will not waste reader’s time in rehashing the arguments. However, for those routing for the Brong Ahafo as the preferred home for the running mate of the NPP, let me remind them that if numbers are what they are counting on, they are doing so on the wrong footing.

Since the 2010 Housing and Population Census report is not yet out, I would to refer the pro-BA NPP running mate to the 2000 report and ask them to do a bit of analysis of the ethnic composition of each region. In particular, I refer them to Table 4 of the Ghana Statistical Service, “2000 Population and Housing Census, Summary Report of Final Results”, in which they can find the census data on “Ethnic Groups of Ghanaians by birth and by region”. A cursory review of the said data will tell them that at least 49.1% of Upper Westerners were reported to be living outside their home region at the time of the census. Taken by ethnic classifications as described in the report, the Dagara ethnic group alone had 50.1% of its members living outside the region, while the Sisaala had 48.4% and the Walba had 47.1% respectively of their people living in other regions of the country. Put together, the three groups represent more than 90% of the composition of ethnic groups indigenous to the UWR.

Now, would you want to know where specifically these Upper West domestic diasporans are living around the country? Then, do the math from the data in Table 4 referenced above and you will see that at least 34.5% of all Upper Westerners living outside their home region were in the Brong Ahafo region. Another 21% were in the Northern Region, predominantly along its western corridors leading to the Brong Ahafo. A further 17% were in the Ashanti region.

Certainly, one can expect changes in the population of the Brong Ahafo region since the last census. What would change significantly, though, is the absolute numbers, not the structure, as there has not been any major triggering events since 2000 that would suggest why most Upper Westerners in the Brong Ahafo would have moved out of the region. If anything, more people are likely to have moved from the Upper West region to join their compatriots in the B/A, given the normal migratory trends. Hence, any political party that believes it can write off the north on the basis of some spurious numbers is certainly not serious about winning the 2012 elections

Before hanging up, may I point out that Daniel Anokye’s statistical analysis in his article referenced above need some more serious reworking. Based on only the analysis of the 2008 elections, he has boldly concluded that “…choosing a running mate from the north will not affect the historical voting pattern of Northern voters….” I smiled reading this because it reminded me of the title of a book I saw several years ago while strolling through the Legon Bookshop. Its title was “How to tell lies with Statistics. At best, his analysis and conclusions represent a very flawed presumptive trend analysis with an equally distorted conclusion.

Ghana has had five elections (1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008 to remind him), and yet he chooses to begin and end his analysis on only the 2008 elections.” I guess a little searching backwards will provide Daniel Anokye greater insights than he current has. I urge him to do that and report back in fairness to readers. I also urge him to do an analysis of why the BA is a swing region, as he and others would like to paint it. Better still, he needs to ask all politicians in that region, especially the NPP ones, how they managed to win elections in some of the constituencies in that region; which population groups did they have to rely on to make up their numbers. He needs to do this to let reality, not emotions, speak to the issues.

To conclude, I am sure no one is kidding that ethnicity has not been, and will not continue to be a factor in Ghana’s election. If we accept that as a fact, let the NPP then advise itself on where to look to for its running mate. A word to the wise, as we say it, is in the north.

Hippolyt Pul

Independent Political Analyst