Come January 7, 2025, one of the current two major political parties would ‘Break the 8,’ a phrase many Ghanaians have become familiar with in the last few years. The table is set for elections 2024 and finally, the competition everyone expected is here.

His Excellency Mahamudu Bawumia and the NPP versus His Excellency, John Mahama and the NDC.

Either the NPP will ‘Break the 8’ by becoming the first major political party to govern for a 3rd consecutive 4-year term or the NDC shall ‘Break the 8’ and continue the cycle of political change which occurs after each party rules for 2 consecutive terms thus putting an end to the NPP’s aspirations.

The NDC strategy for “Breaking the NPP’s 8 may depend on a few factors which I consider in the below analysis:

Economy and weak Cedi:

The NDC’s focus on the economy may be a good strategy as long as many indicators including the Cedi remain weak, which is more plausible given the current local and global events.

However, the strategy could prove a bit risky should the government secure any significant loan facility to help alleviate the economic pressure and give an “Artificial Boost” to the economy.

This could invariably strengthen the cedi a bit and drop the cedi-dollar rate a few points.

Subsequently, the drop could have a psychological effect on both supplier and consumer confidence with any slight uptick in the perception that the economy may be strengthening reflecting rather positively on H.E Bawumia and boosting the fortunes of the NPP.

Jobs:

The single biggest problem Ghana has had since H.E. Kufuor’s first term seems to be the inability of subsequent governments to create jobs including good-paying jobs for the young and vibrant population.

This problem has existed even in great economic times like the Kufuor admiration and the first couple of years of the Mills administration when the general economic atmosphere was more positive than it is today. Economic growth in these periods was not matched with a boom in jobs leading to increases in many other economic indicators besides jobs.

Unemployment has been a huge problem for Ghana for almost 30 years and continues to be. The joblessness of many Ghanaians especially the youth has gone from being an epidemic to a pandemic to presently an acute national security problem that could explode at any point.

NABCO, which was brought by the current government as a temporary reprieve to many young graduates and nongraduates ended up being shelved due to lack of funds at the same where state resources were being channeled into a Cathedral.
The ability of the NDC to make Ghanaians believe that they could be better at job creation than the NPP would be essential.

President Akufo-Addo and Ken ofori-Atta

The NDC’s ability to successfully tie H.E Bawumia to President Akufo-Addo may as well prove to be an even more effective and potent strategy than the weak economy. Most Ghanaians have soured on the presidency of H.E Akufo-Addo and the finance minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, whom many blame for the current situation is even more disliked.

If President Akufo-Addo’s first term was one of the best policy-wise in the 4th republic, then his second term could be described as one of the worst and most disappointing. Here, one may readily point to the shocks of COVID-19 and the subsequent wars raging in Europe as factors for the poor economy.

However, those would not explain the general malaise and depressive state of affairs in the country. There is a general sense of Hopelessness and Despair that has crept into the Psyche of the Ghanaian with the majority blaming the president and his government. It is no different from what transpired from the beginning of 2015 through the election day of December 7th, 2016, where the sense that things were spiraling downward led to Ghanaians giving President
Mahama and his government the boot from the seat of power.

Ultimately, the NDC should have the much easier task of ‘Breaking the 8,’ i.e., stopping the NPP from a 3rd consecutive 4-year term; Although, politics generally, and most recently Ghanaian politics to be precise would inform us that all prognoses are but predictions.

Nothing is set in stone be it (un)Scientific Polls or ‘Spiritual Voices and Visions’ from political prophets. The present electorate, unlike years past, has become more sophisticated and very unpredictable and any attempt to determine the outcome of an election to be held almost a year from now is unwise. A day in Politics may as well be described as an entire 12-month calendar year. Anything is Possible.

Gye Nyame