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Opinions of Monday, 16 September 2013

Columnist: Allotey, Henry Kpakpo

N.P.P must forget about 2016!

I know N.P.P politicians and supporters would not want to hear this. They still want to believe there is hope for them to unseat President Mahama. N.P.P still has that believe that they can unseat a seating president, that with all the advantages of incumbency they can still win. This is more akin to chasing the wind. The gospel truth is: N.P.P can never win an election against President Mahama!

This may be painful to hear but that is the reality. Having failed to use their judicial friends to unseat President Mahama, what makes the N.P.P think they can do so through the ballot box? They should forget about 2016! President Mahama will win, probably with a wide margin and retire Akuffo Addo forever.

When I say the N.P.P cannot defeat President Mahama, I don’t mean to dwell on the personality of President Mahama. What I am trying to drum home into the ears of the N.P.P is that: AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT WILL NEVER LOSE AN ELECTION IN GHANA! This is the bottom line. Akuffo Addo can never defeat President Mahama as long as Mahama is contesting as president of Ghana. It is quite nauseating listening to die hard N.P.P fanatics talk as if Akuffo Addo coming for a third time means certain victory. It is laughable listening to political neophytes like that lunatic Sir John behave as if without Akuffo Addo the N.P.P is dead beat. The disservice that hypocrites like Sir John and his bloodhounds are causing the N.P.P is unimaginable. Maybe we need to drum home into their ears: Akuffo Addo can never, ever defeat President Mahama in any election conducted in GHANA! Fanatics of Akuffo Addo will want to draw a parallel between former President Mills and Nana Addo. They claim President Mills contested three times before becoming president so Nana Addo can also follow suit. This argument is not only porous, but it flies in the face of all logical reasoning. It is true President Mills contested 3 times but what N.P.P leaders are not telling their supporters is the circumstances that President Mills lost those two elections. In 2000, Mills lost against J.A Kuffour because Ghanaians having had enough of the PNDC/NDC rule wanted a change badly. So President Mills even with the backing of J.J Rawlings was destined to lose. Then Mills lost again in 2004 because he was contesting against an INCUMBENT President J.A Kuffour. Yes, this is how Mills lost a second time: HE CONTESTED AGAINST AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT J.A. KUFFOUR AND LOST! In 2008 when President Kuffour was not contesting again, the situation was like what prevailed in 2000. Ghanaians having had enough of N.P.P’s complacency decided to reward the long suffering President Mills with a victory. But we should take note that despite the seemingly incumbent advantage that Akuffo Addo enjoyed, he was not the INCUMBENT president. The N.P.P lost the 2008 election because an INCUMBENT president was not contesting. We can clearly see that President Mills became third time lucky because he was not contesting against an INCUMBENT president. When he did in 2004, he lost so what makes N.P.P fanatics believe that a washout Akuffo Addo can defeat an INCUMBENT President Mahama in 2016?

This is Arica. In here, it is very easy for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than an incumbent president losing an election. The advantages of incumbency is too numerous to enumerate. It may not be the best but that is the gospel truth. This is not peculiar to Africa alone. In the United States of Africa, there has been 10 sitting Presidents that have been defeated when they sought reelection. The last time a sitting President was defeated was in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated GHW Bush. Since then, all sitting Presidents have been reelected with sometimes wide margins. The situation persists in several countries where even a deeply unpopular president still manages to win a reelection with wide margins!

I will therefore urge the N.P.P to use 2016 to market a more moderate presidential candidate. The N.P.P will do well to market a highly qualified presidential candidate like Professor Kwabena Frimpong Boateng, Dr. Mahamadu Barwumia, and probably Nii Ayikwei Otoo. The reason is that, having been marketed in 2016, they will definitely win the 2020 election since by then Ghanaians will be fed up with the N.D.C.

The N.D.C will lose the 2020 elections if the N.P.P moves away from the Akuffo Addo fever and markets an entirely moderate candidate in 2016. The new candidate cannot unseat Mahama in 2016 but will lay a solid foundation for an N.P.P victory in 2020 when Mahama will be gone. It is not in our interest to have N.D.C in power for a long time. Power corrupts and definitely Ghanaians will be wary of an N.D.C staying in power for a long time. 2020 is a year of redemption for the N.P.P. The N.P.P will definitely be in power if they play their cards well. Will the N.P.P allow one man’s greed and selfishness to destroy their chances of coming to power in 2020? Will the N.P.P have the courage to go for a moderate candidate in 2016 then use him or her to win the Presidency in 2020? The ball is in their court!

kpakpogh@yahoo.com ( 0243370764)