Mahama’s running mate for 2024 election should be a game changer for the NDC in election 2028

Ex-President John Mahama’s selection in 2023 to lead the National Democratic Congress (NDC) going into election 2024 is one that has attracted many comments, analyses and opinions from political actors in Ghana. Election 2024 becomes the third time he is representing the NDC in an election after losing two consecutive times (2016 and 2020 elections).

Many believe that this may be his last attempt at leading the NDC into an election as flag bearer regardless of the outcome of 2024’s election. A lot of concern however has been expressed about the strategic succession plan of the NDC if they become victors of 2024 election and they seek to be re-elected for a second term in election 2028 as constitutionally, John Mahama’s eligibility to contest in election 2028 is not yet clear.

These worries have led to some political analysts arguably believing that for organisational strategy of the NDC to win election 2024 and 2028 seamlessly, the selection of John Mahama as flag bearer for election 2024 may not have been strategic.

This position is held with the argument that, if the NDC wins election 2024 and the interpretation of the constitution prohibits John Mahama from contesting election 2028 as the party will be seeking its second term, then it means that in 2027 going into election 2028, the NDC will be faced with two strategy conundrums, selecting a perfect successor and securing a second term. The main concern is these two conundrums are individually daunting tasks that need a lot of tact to effectively execute when done simultaneously.

This has therefore made the conversation about who John Mahama selects as a running mate a very important one in the NDC today. He is expected to announce who that person will be in coming days.

This article outlines a historical account of selected running mates in the NDC from 1992 to 2020, highlights observations and queries how that influences the next choice of running mate considering the opportunity of that person leading the party as flag bearer after John Mahama.

History of running mates and their regions of origin in NDC from 1992 to 2020

1992-Kow Nkensen Arkaah (Central region)
1996-John Evans Atta Mills (Central region)
2000-Martin Amidu (Upper East region)
2004-Muhammad Mumuni (Northern region)
2008-John Mahama (Savannah region)
2012-Kwesi Amissah-Arthur (Central region)
2016-Kwesi Amissah-Arthur (Central region)
2020-Jane Naana Opoku Agyemang (Central region)

Historical data above suggests that the NDC has selected more running mates from the Central region, particularly the Fante ethnic group. Aside from that, the selection of Muhammad Mumuni who is a Muslim as running mate going into election 2004 indicates religious diversity. An indication of gender diversity was witnessed with the selection of Jane Naana Opoku Agyemang, a woman as running mate going into election 2020.

Will John Mahama consider this historical pattern of selection of running mates in the NDC and apply some targeting strategies for identified voter segments to select a running mate:

1. considering the gender of the person, taking into account that females are the larger gender group in our voter population or with him being male, a female will be ideal to have some gender balance?

2. considering the ethnicity and region of origin of the person, taking into perspective that more Fantes have been selected in the past comparatively to other ethnic groups in the Southern part of Ghana and how that may get other ethnic groups expectant to see one of them being selected?

3. considering the religious association of the person, taking into cognisance that the largest religious group is Christianity or with him being Christian, a Muslim will be ideal to have some religious balance from the two most populated religious groups in Ghana?

4. considering the ability (politically, financially, demographically) of the person to succeed him to lead the NDC into election 2028 as the party will seek its second term if they win election 2024?

These questions should certainly be strategically deliberated on by John Mahama and the NDC as the decision of who the running mate will be going into election 2024 is a crucial one for the future of the party.