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Opinions of Sunday, 13 September 2015

Columnist: Guure, Brown

Election 2016: The Coming Landslide for President Mahama

Guure Brown Guure

Some might find a number of reasons to suggest that President Mahama's chances in the coming 2016 Presidential election are in serious jeopardy. However, I find that when we stop to consider the facts, analyse the dynamics in our political discourse, whether you like it or not, President Mahama will almost certainly win the 2016 election- OneTouch.

Here are some of the major reasons why:

First is the fact that the Mahama administration is silently delivering on the promises made in the 2012 election campaign. The NDC seems to strategically remain silent on the enormous achievements chalked in the areas of infrastructural development, health delivery, education, labour welfare etc. These, I suspect would be unleashed in the coming campaign- much to the disgust of the opposition.
Secondly, whilst the ruling party is consolidating its campaign messages, some of which are well known to the electorate, for example the “Better Ghana Agenda” the opposition party seems to have none in stock after President Mahama surreptitiously snatched Akufo Addo’s only campaign message in the last election. Nana Addo’s recent “arise and rebuild” has been rebranded “arise and fall” in the light of the simmering internal squabbles in the NPP.

Thirdly, the NPP has internal divisions. Obviously this isn't the only challenge for Nana Addo and the NPP, but the fact remains that the divisions are deep, thus could only get worse in the coming weeks and months. This can only lead to another political disaster.

Fourthly, it will be particularly important that the NPP presidential candidate is sufficiently skilled at unifying, rallying, and leading party supporters, while being charismatic and persuasive enough to keep expanding the party base. This is obviously Nana Addo’s weakest link. Conversely, President Mahama has in the past two years demonstrated his skill at uniting his party and being able and willing to work with all potential factions. Consequently, whilst the NPP would be going into the election divided and weak, the NDC is going in united and strong.

Fifth, among the eight regions that President Mahama won in 2012, Mahama and the NDC still remain the electorates’ choice by far. With Bawumia’s recent electoral register accusations, many are those who feel deeply alienated by it and would encourage, even sponsor family and friends abroad to come home to register to vote –come 2016. Whatever happens to the electoral register, it would only go increase not reduce the NDC’s voter base.

Finally, as political observers will tell you, barring political incompetence, incumbents tend to win. Those who hold an office are more likely to keep it, for a variety of good reasons. Mahama is therefore destined for a landslide victory.

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