Incumbency Theorem: Administering a wrong Dose for unsettled Democracy

Review on Political Systems show that some leadership styles are common among world leaders. Notably, our African leaders have consciously or unconsciously adopted some of these styles regardless of whether or not such practices are foreign to them. These styles are designed into games that nations play and are crafted around two dimensional figure - divide and rule - that works well in contemporary ?Diplomacy and Governance?. We are going to waste our energies delving into practical issues surrounding the sophisticated form of modern day games that leaders play in their own countries. We begin with the phrase ?Incumbency Theorem?, what is it? The law of incumbency states that: the incumbent president determines the fate of the incoming president to succeed him/her. Is that true? Let us begin by giving examples.

The former Russian president Vladimir Putin determined the fate of the Russian Federation by single-handedly picking his successor, President Dmitry Medvedev. Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher crowned sixth-former John Major as her successor. Progressive Tony Blair had to hold the hand of the outcast, Scottish man Gordon Brown, into the scathing British political arena. The Robin Island prison operative Nelson Mandela handed over power to his choice, President Thabo Mbeki, who is also poised to hand over power to the sex-offender, Jacob Zuma. Closer home, the beleaguered former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo literally handed over power to his choice President Umar Yaradua. Does that mean that Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe can also hand over power to his preferred Shona successor so easily? Of course yes! The senator of the Ku-Klaus-Klan (KKK) infested farmlands of the ?failed State? of cold Minnesota, Norman Coleman, would argue that failed states of Zimbabwe?s kind, such as North Korea, Swaziland, (Ghana was once on his list) and a bunch of Eastern European states, where anarchy and thug capitalism seem to be sticking their heads up can easily institute the law of incumbency to work. Can the law of incumbency be applied in all national borders? No. Why not? This is because the word ?all? in this context gives a blanket statement that makes the statement hard to substantiate. At least, tough opposition in contemporary African countries has demonstrated that the law of incumbency, although may be applied, would not succeed.

Let us settle down home with more examples. Gun-man Jerry Rawlings was absolutely certain with his miserable ?Swedru Declaration? that imposed presidential candidate Mills on the NDC party, which seems to be hanging on their shoulders for ten straight years, has relegated the party to a perpetual doom. John Kufuor also tried in several instances to impose his own choice to his NPP party starting with the party?s executive chairmanship and failed terribly. The message sent to him at the time was simple: ?do not suppress our decision, please, Mr. President?. The second instance was when the president wanted to force his decision on our party with his own choice of presidential candidate. Well the party decided otherwise. Apparently, the turn of developments has sent bitter notes to the nation?s chief executive. But why is it that people do not learn from history? It is because after mingling with world leaders over years the normally thinking son/daughter of the soil acquires superior reasoning, hence demand authoritative command. Interestingly, history has proven that the very same presidents that hand-picked their successors eventually ended up at loggerheads with them. Therefore it is never a good idea for an individual to impose his/her choice on millions of people. Why then do you think that President Kufuor would do things that seem to show deliberate practice to make his own party?s candidate lose the forthcoming elections? Let us look critically at some issues and form strategic decisions. Note that one significant factor under this topic - Diplomacy and Governance - is its flavour in a political chess game. You will have to understand the rules of the game in order to play accordingly and to win handsomely.

Now let us begin analyzing issues carefully: [CAUTION! There will be free straight talk here]. Some reactionaries with the layman?s observations believe that John Kufuor does not like Akufo-Addo. Do you buy that? They argue that the president promised during his high profile visit to England [in which he declared his maiden speech of ?Embarrassing!? against Robert Mugabe?s physical handling of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai] that he would travel across the breadth of the country with his party?s elected flag bearer. But it looks like that offer is not forthcoming, or perhaps aren?t we being too impatient? No, because they believe that the turn of recent events are ample evidence to make a case against Uncle John. For instance, why should the president by-pass Nana Akufo-Addo for Prof. Atta-Mills with the nation?s highest award in an election time to deliberately cripple Nana Akufo-Addo?s chances of winning? Well far from that, I will revisit this point in my conclusion, so please read on.

However, for now we need to understand one leadership style with John Kufuor. In 2002, in the heat of Gun-man Jerry Rawlings? boom-boom speeches and continuous verbal threat of possible coup d?etat, I made a contribution through this same medium that: should the threats manifest into reality John Kufuor would be personally held responsible to the fullest letter. He pitched up and tightened his grips on the nation while diplomatically dealing with Gun-man Rawlings to bring peace to the country during his reign. Good job, Your Excellency. Critically analyzing the president, one can find a fine gentleman bent on absolute peace during his tenure as president of the land. He would therefore create circumstances that will bring collective trust and respect for all the citizens of the nation. He had made promises in numerous instances never to stand against the people?s decision, of which I commend him on that stance. The real issue has not been touched yet. The point is that leaders are immensely motivated by their style of governance. What, do you think, motivates our president to do things that would upset his own party members? And the answer is: ?a Nobel Peace Prize?. My article in that year spotted it right that the president?s handling of Gun-man Jerry Rawlings with kids gloves amidst Rawlings? stubborn behaviour tells it all about a gentleman with eyes set on international awards. With Mo Ibrahim?s award lately doubling up on Nobel, our gentle giant?s motivation is extremely heightened. Honestly, President Kufuor?s leadership style stands tall and appears more superior to his contemporaries within the time-frame that our president has worked. Considering the criteria used in offering the international awards such as: the state?s internal security, economics, all sectors of services - education, transport, poverty prevention/alleviation, etc. - and peaceful handling of issues involving opposition in an equitable manner, such as the award on Prof. Mills, and negotiating deals among warring factions within Ghana and the rest of Africa, such as Ivory Coast, Kenya, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Togo, etc. are enough to net him those mentioned awards.

No, I can hear them rejecting my analysis here! Why? They still insist that there is this thing of Asante-and-Akyem feud within our party that must be brought up to shame the ?bad blood? if ever there is anything like that in our party. Nonsense! There is nothing like that and I do not believe in such a thing. One civilized thing that guides our party is that, one has to follow the queue and prove oneself on how he/she can lead our party to victory, plain and simple [and no tribal sentiments]. Therefore I wouldn?t want to waste much energy on that bunkum. The British wars (Sagranti and others) that dissipated established communities in Asante and ignited Yaa Asantewaa?s resentments affected conurbations that formed ?Ko-Nnom-Nngo? (circa 1854) as well. My great grand parent, Maagyann (the first Chief of Konongo) retreated with his family to seek sanctuary from Kyebiri royal home. They were warmly received and accorded all the courtesies befitting ?abrempong? and the next generations of my Asona clan grew up there until early 1920?s when the first batch returned to Konongo. The rest remained comfortably in Kyebiri and paid homage regularly till today. Some of our great names still existing in Kyebiri are Oteng, Sarfo, Baah, Boappiah, Bresaah, Boampong, and Dankwah. Therefore any cling to sentiments separating Asante and Akyem brings emotions, and do not sit well with me. Hence, I wouldn?t want to associate myself with things like that. Therefore we must stop making wild accusations that do not promote progress in our party. Honestly Asante and Akyem are the same, only River Biremuu separates the two.

How about the accusations of arrogance leveled against Nana Akufo-Addo by sections in the Asante group bent on belittling our flag bearer? Oh yes, I have heard about the use of arrogance by politicians several times. Political propagandists seem to have crafted a rhythm that sounds like: It is arrogance that stole power from Dr. J B Danquah for the pheasant, Kwame Nkrumah. It is arrogance that relegated Victor Owusu from popular votes for Dr. ?Nobody? Hilla Limann. It is arrogance that eliminated Prof. Adu-Boahen and favoured the notorious Gun-man Jerry Rawlings. It is quietness and soft-heartedness that made Prof. Kofi Busia and gentleman J A Kufuor triumph over their staunch competitors. It is arrogance in Akufo-Addo that will bring heavy defeat to the NPP come 2008. The rhythm closes that: Danquah?s arrogance denied Kyebiri into the Castle the first time; Adu-Boahen?s arrogance denied Kyebiri into the Castle the second time; and yet again Akufo-Addo?s arrogance will deny Kyebiri into the Castle for the third time. Therefore John Kufuor might be scared that his legacy could be properly taken care of by a stable, soft-hearted, and peaceful person like the opposition man Prof. Mills. I don?t believe in this talk either. Talk about arrogance. What is it? Psychological studies believe that human beings, as primates, have brain area for fury and/or anger. We all have different forms of releasing our anger. Introverts and withdrawn people would resort to murder easily, whereas extroverts and ?ka-ne-wu? ones would shout immediately to correct a wrong situation. In fact arrogance is good in politics because it creates a definitive lineage to caution possible offenders in the environment they find themselves in order to behave well. In the three instance of the rhythm on Abuakwa Kyebiri, we find acute differences in their positions before the three elections. The circumstances that bedeviled the Danquah and Boahen?s elections were absolutely different from and incomparable with His Excellency, the President-in-Waiting, Nana Addo Dankwah Akufo-Addo?s forthcoming elections. There is no way Nana would lose this election. The criminal intents that Kwame Nkrumah and Gun-man Jerry Rawlings used to steal the peoples? verdicts can never recur at our own time. The elections would be monitored closely, no macho men, no misbehaviours, and absolutely no criminal acts. Voters would have the freedom to vote and go home and leave the television crew to beam the process live and viewed worldwide, no cheap stuff. The only possible factor that can make NPP president-in-waiting lose is when His Excellency Akufo-Addo decides to boycott the elections as Prof. Adu-Boahen did in 1992. Are there realistic reasons that would warrant a possible NPP second time boycott? And the answer is plain and simple: No, because it?s not gonna happen. How about disillusionment in our ?world bank? voters? There skeptics might slightly hit the core issue. Statistically, NPP have about 35% of the national voters as against the NDC of about 25%, being the closest opposition party. There are roughly 37% free voters to decide winner of elections. If NPP supporters deny us the votes by not going to the sites to vote, then there might be a problem. Our resolution is to intensify the campaign to reach all, I mean everybody.

They appear quiet and discernible with my powerful argument here but a bit unsettling in their body language. But Kufuor is afraid that Akufo-Addo will probe him that will lead him into prison and consequently pave the way for Nana to jail Rawlings and all wrongdoers in their yester-years? governance, they quietly chipped in. This is because Akufo-Addo has openly declared that he will not oppose anyone who will drag anybody to court regarding corruption in government. But since NDC have declared no witch-hunt against Kufuor, he would be safer and more secured under Prof. Atta-Mills? government than under Nana Akufo-Addo?s government, they conclude. I do not believe in a tiny bit that there is corruption affecting President Kufuor and his team. It is common to doubt the hands counting the nation?s money, of which I commend you for holding on to that and for being critical. However, the president and his team are not corrupt. If there is any type of this complaint, why should we allow the government to go away before making a report? We still can drag him and/or anybody to court right now than waiting for tomorrow to make our point. For instance, in spite of my grievances with my own MP of Asante-Akyem North Constituency, I still respect Hon. Wiredu with the good work he is doing for our nation?s finance department. I will not under any circumstance accuse him or anybody in the administration of corruption without substantial evidence. If there was any, oh Lord of mercy, I would have been first to expose Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu big time, but my 24-hour radar for surveillance has not registered that. It therefore beats my imagination why anybody could make such a wild accusation. Records on the much dramatized ?Hotel Kufuor?, for instance, are there for super extra scrutiny now and do not require a special superman, be it Atta-Mills, Akufo-Addo or narcissistic Kofi Wayo, to concoct any form of solution to incarcerate Uncle John.

In conclusion, the president has done nothing wrong that can castigate the fine gentleman into gallows. Could the president have awarded Prof. Mills any time other than now? Not really. My question is should the president have delayed the pardon for criminals, Victor Selormey and Kwame Peprah, until George Yankey?s time from jail? Or is the president wrong on his timing for pardoning the moribund Dan Agbodakpi? Atta-Mills is sick, and who knows if he is about to die soon, then the president would be right to award him before he (Mills) goes. Of course posterity will vindicate His Excellency President Kufuor over Atta-Mills? award. Or could the president have included Kofi ?ROPAL? Boateng of New York, USA for his magnificent turn of the wheels of the national constitution to work in the direction expected of it as he did? May be! But he does not need to do what he does not want to do.

On the question of the most bitter complaint of the president stifling his own party with the funds much needed to help the party win big, the answer is that Diplomacy and Governance do not condone treachery and theft. The parties would have to work hard to solicit funds on their own for their individual campaigns. Why all these tough rules coming from Kufuor at a time he is supposed to support Akufo-Addo to win when the latter offered him all the support he needed during his time? (Asante-Nkae!) Once again, the president has his own set goals that he would want to achieve before turning the keys to the Attorney-General?s office, which are international awards. It?s all about individual differences. John Kufuor is not a team player but an excellent architect of team-playing fields. John Kufuor is not a party man. He started off as a young pioneer geared toward Kwame Nkrumah. Then quickly aligned with Kofi Busia to secure MP and Deputy Foreign Minister positions. He then jumped into Gun-man Jerry Rawlings? bandwagon as Secretary of Local Government and Rural Development. He reluctantly quit his position after a huge pressure on him from his own party members at the time, and that action paved way for him to lead this party. He worked his way so hard up the ladder to reach where he is now, hence a man of this personality would require same from any other person. You might call it selfishness but one?s leadership styles are inherent in one?s upbringing and Kufuor is not different. His set goals are dear to him. We should therefore be extremely careful not to attach emotionality when analyzing issues of national importance. Perhaps he is a typical Ghanaian with no sentiments or special allegiance to a particular sect; or may be, define him as a ?universal man? or ?l?homme san frontiere? with no special interests. It?s therefore disappointing to hear our own party gurus trooping local radio stations to cause mayhem.

Regardless of Kufuor?s open support or otherwise to President-in-Waiting Akufo-Addo, party records and/or performance since Governor George Maclean?s Bond of 1844, will be compared and Nana Akufo-Addo will win hands down. Our lessons in Ghanaian Diplomacy and Governance point at all indicators showing a big win for NPP president and a massive control of the house in the forthcoming general elections. Therefore Ghana does not need a leader literally lifted to the seat by an out-going one who does not have decision support from his own party when he tries one. The law of incumbency or incumbency theorem, whichever way you call it, wouldn?t work in Ghana. Cheers and smile!

Konongo Fordjour, Boston-USA

Views expressed by the author(s) do not necessarily reflect those of GhanaHomePage.