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Opinions of Sunday, 26 December 2010

Columnist: Africa Today

Ghana Crude Oil - Cocoa Curse And Gold Curse

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*Ghananians should not compare with Nigeria and talk of Nigerian oil "curse"
as if Ghana has had it so good untill the recent modest gain in elections.
Ghana has been producing Cocoa and Gold for over 50 years and yet Ghana is
still one of the poorest countries on earth, and depends heavily on
international donors and hand out for its survival and why is it like that.
Just like Nigeria has mismanaged its oil and gas revenue for over 50 years,
the same thing has happened in Ghana for over 50 years when Ghana despite
being the world largest cocoa producer and one of the largest producers of
Gold in Africa, Ghana mismanaged its Cocoa and gold revenue for over 50
years. Within 30 years Countries in Asia and south America were producing
fruits like banana, orange, rice, like costa Rico, Thailand and Colombia
etc. and yet these countries are well developed and are medium range nations
and they did it with fruits and vegetable export, so why did Ghana fail with
Cocoa and Gold production for over 50 years and why.*
**
*When 15 to 20 years ago Cameroon, chad, Angola, Gabon, Sudan etc in
Africa, all discovered oil in commercial quantity, all of them keep saying
the same thing and the same mantra " We will not be like Nigeria with our
new crude oil discovery" but look at today none of them has done better than
Nigeria and infact Nigeria is better than them all put together. The
question to Ghana, Cameroon,Chad, Sudan, Angola, Gabon is, What did you do
with your natural resources and other producct to better your people before
and after oil discovery and the answer is nothing - zero -nil. **Africans
should focus on how to get ride of corruption and thieves in African
leadership instead of making comparizons that hold no water.*
**
*Another issues is how does Ghana think that it will prosper when it is
sorrounded by almost 300 million unstable and desparate poor countries and
people around it. The same thing happended with Ivory coast when its so call
boom, and it was surrounded by 300 million poor and desparet and
unstable countries like Sierra Leon, Liberia, Mali etc. The same thing
happended to Nigeria in the 1970s when it was booming and surrounded by 300
million people unstable poor countries. The same thing has happended in
Kenya when it was booming and sorrounded by unstable Somalia, Ruwanda,
Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, congo, Burundi etc and what happended eventually
Kenya, Ivory coast, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, etc all came crashing down and
collapsed, because Africans leaders do not know how to have a marshall plan
for the whole of Africa like in Europe,Eastern Europe, South America and
Asia, so that every country will grow and up lifted in the same level and
make growth reach every corner at the same time. When a country of 30
million people like Ghana is booming and relatively poor like Ghana, Kenya,
Ivory Coast and surrounded by 3oo milion poor and unstable countries and
people eventually with immigration, refugees and unbalanced setup
structurally, it is impossible for that country to survive being a relative
poor country itself.*
**
*African countries like Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Conngo.,South
Africa are fooling themselves by thinking that when a country of population
of about 30 million people is booming and experiencing growth, and yet are
surrounded by 500 million poor and unstable desparate Africans, and they
think the growth will continue. It will not but rather those 500 million
people around it will pull it down eventually. What Africa needs is
universal growth plan for West Africa region, all East Africa Region, All
South African Region and all North African region at the same time to
sustain the growth.*
**
*Ghana is not all that Gold like we think. Ghana is a very poor country and
corrupt country both in human and material resources. Ghana has been
mismanaged in the last 50 years like Nigeria untill about just 5 years ago
that Ghana started showing very small sign of improvement by conducting good
elections. Ghana is still a very corrupt and poor country. Check the
follwing facts below because the is no camparisons between the two
countries. It is too lopsided.

(1) Ghana GDP (Total Worth of Ghana) in purchasing power is 30 -35 billion
dollars
(2) Nigeria GDP (Total Worth of Nigeria) in purchasing power 350 billion -
400 billion Dollars*
* (3) Ghana population is about 25 million people and Nigeria population is
about 170 million people.*
*(4) Nigeria already discovered oil and gas fieldl 50 years ago now is
capable of producing 5 million barrels a day now if well managed, but
still,*
(5) *Nigeria has huge reserve of oil and gas fields discovered and
untouched for future savings in Anambra Basin, Benin Basin, Edo basin and
Kogi/Benue River Basin with reserve of alomost 10 million barrells a day of
of oil and gas deposit already explored and discovered and just siting there
for future reserve use.*
*
(6) In Nigeria Kano State, Rivers State, Lagos State, Ogun State, Anambra
State, Abia State, Delta State,Bayela state, Oyo State each of these ten
states has a bigger economy each than Ghana.These Ten States each in Nigeria
has larger economy than Ghana.

(7) Nigeria with a large land mass 10 times the the size of Ghana land
mass has abundant mineral and commodites resources other than oil and
gas which is the largest reserves in commodities and mineral deposit
combined in Africa today and are in export market now and with huge
potential for expansion.
*
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*(8) LIST OF EXPORTABLE MINERALS FROM NIGERIA

*Cassaiterite, Columbite, Gelena, Gold, Iron-ore", Ilemmite, Lead-Zinc,
Manganese, Moleybdenite, Asbestos, Limestone, Coal, Lignite, Emerald,
Aquamarine, Ruby, Sapphire, Granite, Marble

*(9) LIST OF EXPORTABLE COMMODITIES FROM NIGERIA

*Cocoa, Coffee, Cashewnuts,Rubber, Kolanuts, Palm kernel, Coconuts, Cotton,
Ginger, Charcoal, Cow horns and hooves, TimberCimelina, Shrimps,, and
prawns, Sheanut, Sesame seed.
*(10) Corruption i is endemic in Ghana despite their showing good face and
conducting good election. Corruption is a big problem in Ghana, Example is
the recent world cup Tournamant in South Africa, when Ghananian Players did
quite well, but as they came back to Ghana, corrupt officials in Ghananian
Football Association stole the world cup players money (fees) and some of
the players have not been paid in full till today, and Ghana footbal body
has been suspened by the Government, and investigation is on going and FIFA
has suspended Ghana from International competition for corrupt practices.
Corruption in official circle is a common everyday thing in Ghana just like
in Nigeria and all African countries.*

*(11) Ghana will be producing about two hundred thousans barrells of oil in
about two years if they are lucky, but then Ghana has to be given quotas by
OPEC and international oil cartel politics and Ghana may be able to sell
only half of that. For example Nigeria can produce 5 million barrels of oil
a day now, but because of OPEC quotas and international oil cartel politics
Nigeria can only sell half of that 2.5 million barrels in the world market
today in the world market.*

*(12) If Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Sudan and all these African countries that
produces oil do not follow OPEC Quotas and Internationl Oil Cartel Mafias
politics their oil can become useless, because no body will buy it. The
reason is that Saudi Arabia can produce and flood the world with 10 million
barrels a day, Iran can produce and flood the world with 10 million
barrels a day, Russia Can produce and flood the world with 10 million
barrels a day, Kuwait can produce 10 million barrells a day, Venezuela and
all the Middle East countries can flood the world market with oil and sell
them for only 10 dollars a barrels and they will still make their money,
but the poor African oil producing countries will be useless if they do not
obey or follow OPEC and International oil cartel politics, because they
cartels and the Western World have the technology, money and investment to
control oil production and distribution every where in the world today.*

*(13)But because of OPEC quotas and the International oil politcs every
country is given a quotas so that they will be stability in oil production
and international oil market so that every country will get something based
on their production level instead of oil war that will destroy less
powerful oil producing countries. OPEC and the International oil politics
is like price control agency.*

*(14) It will take Ghana about 50 years years to repay the oil investment
by international oil investors in Ghana now before Ghana can even come close
to Nigeria as an oil producing country, because Nigeria oil fields took 50
years to discover and to get to this level.*

*(15) Ghana cannot compare to Nigeria in any tangible thing now or in the
near future, yes they have been conducting good elections and thats its for
a small poor country, and Ghanaians and their leaders should stop camparing
with Nigeria what they have not been able to do with cocoa and Gold.*
* *
*NIGERIA POTENTIAL TO BE AFRICA NUMBER ONE ECONOMY IN 20 YEARS*
* culled from BLOOMBERG News - New York December 2010*
*Goldman Sachs's Mboweni Says Nigeria May Become Africa's New `Gold Rush'*

*Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, will be the next “gold rush” on the
continent as investors take advantage of a booming economy, former South
African central bank Governor Tito Mboweni said.
Nigeria’s gross domestic product will overtake South Africa’s in the next
three decades, Mboweni, who is now an adviser for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,
said in an interview in Johannesburg on Oct. 8. Its economy of $169 billion
compares with South Africa’s $286 billion, according to World Bank data.
“Nigeria is going to be Africa’s growth story for the next 15 to 20 years,”
Mboweni said after returning from a visit to Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, and
the commercial hub, Lagos, as part of a delegation from Goldman Sachs.
The West African nation, the continent’s most populous with 140 million
people, is targeting economic growth of 10 percent in the coming years as it
boosts spending on power plants and attracts more investment, Finance
Minister Olusegun Aganga, a former Goldman Sachs executive, said Sept. 3.
The government is preparing to sell its first Eurobond of $500 million this
year.
Goldman Sachs, which doesn’t have an office in Nigeria, is bidding to advise
on the sale of state-owned power-generation and distribution companies, the
Bureau of Public Enterprises said on Aug. 31. The government hasn’t said who
will manage the Eurobond sale yet.
Mboweni is also chairman of Nampak Ltd., Africa’s biggest packaging maker,
which is benefiting from its business in Nigeria, he said. Nampak
manufactures bottles for Guinness beer and cigarette packages in the
country.
Banking Crisis
Nigeria has previously failed to convert its oil wealth into economic
development. In its latest crisis, central bank Governor Lamido Sanusi, who
took office in June last year, fired the chief executive officers of eight
of the 24 commercial lenders and pumped 620 billion naira ($4 billion) to
bail out 10 of them as the industry risked collapse. Sanusi said on Sept. 21
that the economy will probably expand 7.8 percent this year, up from 7
percent in 2009.
Nigeria has oil production capacity of more than 3 million barrels a day,
Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke said on Sept. 27, making it the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ sixth-largest supplier. Oil
accounts for more than 80 percent of government revenue, according to the
Finance Ministry.
There are a number of good, young technocrats in Nigeria’s government who
will help sort out the “chaos” in the country, Mboweni said.
‘Good Job’
A former labor minister in President Nelson Mandela’s first Cabinet in 1994,
Mboweni, 51, left the South African Reserve Bank in November after a decade
at its helm, declining PresidentJacob Zuma’s offer to serve a third term. He
was named chairman of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa’s biggest gold
producer, on Feb. 24, three weeks after he was appointed to the same
position at Nampak.
Mboweni, who is a patron of the South African Ballet Theater, is currently
raising $130 million for a planned specialist children’s hospital in
Johannesburg.
The Reserve Bank of South Africa is doing a “good job,” Mboweni said.
Interest rate increases between June 2006 and June 2008 helped to curb price
gains, he said.
Inflation has been inside the central bank’s 3 percent to 6 percent target
range since February, easing to an annual 3.5 percent in August.
Union Criticism
Mboweni was criticized by South African labor unions for not cutting
interest rates fast enough in 2009, which they said prolonged the economy’s
first recession in 17 years. He lowered thebenchmark rate six times to 7
percent between December 2008 and August 2009. His replacement, Gill Marcus,
has cut the rate by 1 percentage point since then.
In his new role at Goldman Sachs, Mboweni said he has met with foreign
investors, who raised concerns about calls from the youth wing of the ruling
African National Congress to nationalize the country’s mines. His response
to them is that the “center will hold” in the ANC, he said.
The ANC agreed at its National General Council meeting, which ended on Sept.
24, to study nationalizing mines and other key industries over the next two
years. The ANC Youth League, led by Julius Malema, argued at the meeting
that South Africa didn’t derive enough benefit from mining, which generates
30 percent of export revenue in the country." Unquote