In a year’s time November 7, 2016, Ghana votes to elect a government for the seventh time under the fourth republican constitution. I consider the issues that would determine the outcome of the election and likely impact of third parties, i.e. parties other than the two dominant parties - the National Democratic Congress and the National Patriotic Party.

Ghanaweb data on past elections indicate an unprecedented 7.6% in the 2000 elections not voting for either NPP or NDC in the first round presidential ballot, and forcing the incumbent NDC Government to a second round of elections which it lost. See
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/election2012/

There was hope of emergence of third parties to challenge the dominance of NPP and NDC and keep them honest but the hope was quickly dashed. Some third parties were quickly accommodated within the ruling NPP - notably the splinter United Ghana Movement and some members of the Nkrumaist Convention Peoples Party and People National Congress, who today remain with NPP or have become a dominant source of opposition to NDC.

In addition, NDC in opposition continued its electoral strategy of decimating the ranks of the Nkrumaist parties by absorbing key members of the tradition on a platform of social democratic aspirations that convinced prospective and captured Nkrumaists that NDC was a second home that could better guarantee electoral success.

Such Nkrumaists or those so inclined ensured the return of NDC to Government in 2008 and sustained it during the party’s alienation of the Rawlingses.

Not surprisingly, in comparison with the high 7.6% of voters in 2000, there has never been greater than 3% of voters voting for neither major parties - 2.9% in 2004, 2.95% in 2008 and 1.56% in 2012 (see Ghanaweb link above).

Are we going to see a continuation of the two dominant parties crowding out the third parties in election 2016?

NPP internal divisions

By election time next year, NPP would be too far behind NDC to be able to win power on its own. The internal divisions are so deep and have been allowed to fester for so long that resolution won’t come easily in time for the next elections. The internal divisions have alienated sections of the NPP, more or less solidified the NDC loyalty base and driven potential supporters to third parties.

Nana Konadu’s National Democratic Party

NDP founder Nana Konadu Agyemang-Rawlings is the wife of NDC founder and long-term head of State Jerry Rawlings, and mother of a current NDC parliamentary candidate Dr Zanetor Rawlings. That she shows no discomfort as a matriarch of an NDC family attests to her complexity as a political operative.

Never the woman behind the throne during her husband’s long reign, she managed to carve a niche in the party grassroots by forming the 31st December women movement (named after the day of her husband’s coup d’état in 1981), which she ran as a dictator to the envy of most in the party.

She formed the NDP following her humiliation at the 2011 NDC party congress that re-elected then incumbent President Mills over her as NDC Presidential candidate for the 2012 elections. On the untimely death of Prof Mills in office, she fronted as NDP presidential candidate to contest the 2012 elections. As is her luck, the Electoral Commission disqualified her for registration abnormalities, which saved her an expected ignoble defeat but also fortuitously gave her time to prepare stronger for election 2016.

Her sporadic condemnation of the current NDC Government has become more consistent over the past couple of months. No one knows what she has up her sleeves, which personnel she will present for her bid for Government but we all know the issues she will campaign on – Government performance, corruption in Government and in agencies and parastatals under Government control. Enter Amidu

Martin ABK Amidu

Martin Amidu was Deputy Attorney General/Minister of Justice for 12 years under Jerry Rawlings’ PNDC (4 years) and NDC (8 years) governments. During the latter, he was deputy to the powerful NDC National Chairman Obed Asamoah, over whom he was ironically preferred as Presidential running mate to Prof Mills in the 2000 elections. This information might come in handy in any speculations that Amidu might be a running mate to Nana Konadu in the 2016 elections, especially as Obed believed Rawlings had a hand in him not being made a running mate in 2000. Seehttp://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Rawlings-betrayed-me-Obed-Asamoah-195282

Martin Amidu held two positions in Prof Mills Government of 2008 to 2012 – a year as Minister of Interior and another year as Attorney General and Minster of Justice. The President dismissed him in January 2012 for conduct involving allegations against ministerial colleagues, which he declined to withdraw when asked by the President through an intermediary. That even a non-lawyer would know such would lead to dismissal makes one wonder whether Amidu wanted out at that stage and if so at whose instigation or encouragement. An opposition newspaper has since defended his conduct. See http://politics.myjoyonline.com/pages/news/201210/95647.php

Since his dismissal he has earned the nickname Citizen Vigilante for exposing public corruption and championing anti-corruption cases, including procuring at his own expense two Supreme Court decisions ordering Woyome, Waterville Holdings and AustroInvest as well as Spanish company Isofoton to repay monies received as judgment debt payments under the NDC Government.

Recently Amidu has locked horns with another anti-corruption crusader journalist/lawyer Anas Aremeyaw Anas over the latter’s undercover revelations of judicial corruption. Amidu’s engagement has been so extreme, personal and vituperative that it can only be deduced he had something else on his mind.

My take is that pressure from NDC over his crusade against public corruption has forced him to throw caution to the wind. If that takes him to Nana Konadu’s NDP, it would add to the unpredictability of the outcome of Election 2016.

The other not-so-bit players

NDC won the 2012 elections by 0.7% of votes. It obtained 50.7% of the votes compared with NPP’s 47.74%, a difference of 2.96%. It means if only 0.7% switch to NPP in 2016, there would be a second round ballot, which NPP will win if third parties support it.

I have described two long-term NDC stalwarts – Nana Konadu and Martin Amidu, both with considerable institutional memory and experience of NDC, both articulate and persuasive, both with axe to grind. I speculate that they are capable indeed of disturbing the NDC vote in election 2016. So who are the other likely game changers?

Here I consider the PNC, GCPP, CPP and PPP. My observation one year from election 2016 is the resolve of each of the aforementioned four parties to hang on to their traditional voting base. PNC and GCPP are best at it, the CPP the worst. PPP is the new kid on the block, so to speak, but polled the highest votes among third parties at the 2012 elections. Combined, the four parties may still not be able to influence election 2016, because my hunch is that their votes would benefit the two major parties equally if there were a run-off ballot.

Can NDC win Election 2016?

In the light of the above, the question should be more like - can NDC win election 2016? Rather than, can NDC lose election 2016?

1. Complacency

The first hurdle NDC must overcome is complacency. Regardless of what NDC leaders say in public, NDC should entertain the thought that NPP can win Election 2016 despite its internal problems. Nana Konadu in my estimation and mind can make up for NPP losses. And if other third parties chip in, the likelihood of NDC defeat in Election 2016 is complete.

2. Running on record

Of all successor governments in post independent Ghana, NDC 2008 to present has the most credible reason to whine about legacy inherited, in this case from the NPP.

This is a short list of the inherited legacy: $8 billion debt despite HIPC benefits of $6 billion in 2001 and debt cancellation in 2006 of $4.5 out of $8 billion debt since independence; Judgment debts among 936 currently active ( http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Ghana-battling-over-536-judgment-debt-cases-395039 ); Sale of independently assessed $1.5 billion-worth Telecom for $900 million with VRA’s fiber optics thrown in as sweetener and consequent deprivation of a national cash cow revenue stream; Minimal addition to nation’s power generation effecting current load shedding nicknamed DUMSOR with implications for industry and employment; A ridiculously low Ghana share of 10% from oil revenues compared with going rate of 40:60 state to oil companies; A single spine salary structure, imposing financial burden on an incoming Government, and immediately so by last minute approval of an across the board 30% increase in salaries for public/civil servants by outgoing President Kuffour on the eve of leaving office 7 January 2009; Loss of Dutch funding for school feeding program due to corruption. Inter alia!

In essence NDC in 2009 was faced with reduced revenue (loss of Telecom, low share of oil revenue coinciding with global collapse of oil prices), increased government expenditure (public sector wages, judgment debts, debt servicing) and backlog of power generation. A relatively independent economy may be able to weather the storm, not so easily a dependent economy like ours

Mills on assumption of power did not make fuss about the inherited burden and Mahama may have difficulty doing so now as it would appear an excuse rather than putting in perspective the magnitude of the challenges NDC inherited.

To NDC’s credit, it went to work immediately after being elected

- Mills managed to increase the nation’s oil share to 13%, honored commitments to single spine wage structure, improved revenue collection and, significantly calmed a ruinously divided nation angered by the profligacy of a previous Government. He among all his predecessors set a template for responsible lawful Governance

- Mahama as “Acting” President in 6 months of 2012 spent most time campaigning for reelection. On re-election he spent almost a year fighting off an NPP election petition in the Supreme Court challenging his election and legitimacy.

It is therefore remarkable that 3 years into his presidency, he has presided over the most extensive infrastructural development in recent times, stabilized a wobbly currency and economy with some external help, achieved the most efficient revenue collection ever (acknowledged by NPP Presidential running mate and former BOG deputy Governor Dr Bawumia http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Raising-revenue-is-no-sin-Mahama-to-Bawumia-395193 ), and made the greatest contribution to power generation since Ghana’s first leader Kwame Nkrumah.

It is my view NDC would be reelected on its record of achievements in 2016 but only if in the final year of its current mandate, it assiduously tackles weaknesses and failings under its watch in order to deprive third parties the opportunity to determine its fate in election 2016.

3. Negating weaknesses

Here I deal with public corruption and reclaiming SADA, the Savannah Accelerated Development Authority.

3.1 Public corruption

Almost a year after election as President, 15 November 2013, President Mahama outlined in detail the Government blueprint with timelines for fighting corruption when he addressed the Commission for Human Rights and Administrative Justice and anti¬corruption organizations at Flagstaff House. It is an illustration of the magnitude of the task that then CHRAJ chair Loretta Lamptey who responded to the President on behalf of stakeholders present was recently sacked for corrupt conduct.

Among others, the President outlined how Government would deal with corruption relating to GYEEDA, SADA, Ghana revenue Authority, DVLA, Waterville and Isofoton; promised to act on adverse findings of the Auditor general; and pledged “to deal firmly with the report of the Sole Commissioner on Judgment Debts when it is presented”.http://ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=292131

The Sole Commissioner has since presented a report, on which a white paper was recently issued. Seehttp://www.ghana.gov.gh/images/documents/govwhite_paper
.pdttp://www.ghana.gov.gh/images/documents/govwhite_paper.pdf Together with the various Auditor General reports on financial irregularities, and the spectacular video evidence of seasoned investigator Anas Aremeyaw Anas implicating 34 judges and over 180 judicial officers in judicial corruption (http://www.dailyguideghana.com/must-read-ghana-in-the-eyes-of-god-the-anas-aremeyaw-anas-story-on-corrupt-judges-part-1/ ), there is no shortage of materials on which the Government can act upon to redeem its battered image of public corruption ahead of Election 2016.

3.2 Reclaiming SADA

Of the Government agencies that have misappropriated public monies, the case of SADA remains the most emotive. Neurobiologists would tell you that the greater the emotional content of an event, the better it is remembered.

Prof Kwame Karikari underscored thus when he spoke at a Centre for Democratic development function last year. See
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Northerners-in-Mahama-Gov-t-failing-SADA-North-Karikari-307764

After pointing out how funds for reforestation projects in North have been misappropriated by people from the North in charge of the projects, Prof Karikari said:
“SADA has become, as a matter of longstanding national political consensus, the most enduring popular voice for the right to develop.”

“One would have thought that leaders from the north in this particular NDC administration would take advantage of the national consensus to promote more than anyone else, the development of the North as envisaged in the establishment of SADA.”

“ The current crop of Northerners in government needs to show more commitment to ensure that the Savannah Accelerated Development Authority (SADA) programme designed to bridge the gap between the impoverished north and the rich south works.”

“President John Mahama who certainly must consider himself a proud son of the north has a single patriotic and historic responsibility to make SADA work,”

Whether we like it or not, it is from this emotive angle than Ghanaians would see the failure of SADA. But there is time to make amends.

On 15 November 2016, President Mahama announced at a commissioning of a market in Tamale that the Government’s Youth Employment Agency “would employ 100,000 youth in 2016 as a means of solving the youth unemployment in the country” and that “many of the beneficiaries would be committed to afforestation or tree growing as measures of greening the country to arrest imminent desertification, especially the Northern parts of Ghana”. See http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Mahama-YEA-to-employ-100-000-youth-in-2016-394384

If this eventuates and goes a long way to reclaiming SADA’s failed reforestation program, the President would have saved his party serious inquisition to the next elections. Not to mention the kudos he would get at the UN summit on climate change in Paris in two weeks time where all countries are expected to indicate their contributions to reducing global warming.