Accommodating Spio

I said it when the campaign of the aspiring NDC Presidential candidates started. And I say it now two weeks before the ballot. The NDC is in no mood to take risks, imaginary or real. The NDC would play safe, and playing safe to them seems sticking with Mills. That is the sentiment among those who would decide the Presidential candidacy for the NDC mid December 2006.

Spio Garbrah is entitled to seek to change that sentiment, but his efforts are not helped by the non NDC cartel who support his putsch for their own understandably mischievous reasons.

I am not among those who would criticise Spio’s current campaign tactics, aimed at changing the current sentiment in the NDC. I have seen and experienced campaigns for political party or other leadership positions. And, in my opinion, the current Spio campaign can only at worse be described as over-exhuberant. No crime there! My view is that those supporting Mills are exaggerating the negativity of Spio’s campaign tactics, and those supporting the Spio campaign tactics are not thinking beyond this campaign which has the inevitability of a Spio loss.

Both supporters/opponents of Spio/Mills must plan an exit strategy, such that accepting the verdict of the NDC delegates after mid-December would be generally seen as credible and in good faith. Any lingering animosities would detract from NDC efforts in election 2008.

In properly administered political parties, party apparachiks in the shoes of the NDC leadership would already have started working on how to seal cracks opened up during the campaign for the leadership positions. The task is made easier if the cracks are not deep. The immediate task of NDC party apparachiks is therefore to ensure that the cracks are not opened too deep ahead of the ballot.

But the NDC has a peculiar problem here. It is my view that Mills, the likely winner, would more graciously accept defeat than Spio, the likely loser. So, a parallel task for party apparachiks would be to make it easier for Spio to accept defeat when he loses. In properly administered political parties, feelers would already be going out to facilitate a gracious Spio acceptance of defeat. It could take the following forms.

In his campaign to date, we learn that Spio is of the view that his opponent Atta Mills is old and unhealthy. Party apparachiks can prevail on the young and healthy Spio to accept a succession plan, a plan that should Mills win election 2008, he will step down after one term in office to pave way for Spio, who would still be young and healthy in 6 years from now. There are however general problems with succession plans. Firstly, they are inherently undemocratic. They are based on some faceless party heavyweights imposing leadership or leadership succession on a party. Secondly, such succession plans are difficult to enforce. And when they are not honoured, they create distrust among comrades and can lead to disintegration of a party. The difficulty is one of human nature - once a leader begins to feel comfortable in power, only a bulldozer can remove him. Still, it remains a viable option to quickly settle down NDC after its election of a presidential candidate, politics being what it is. The British Labour party went through a similar process recently.

Another viable method to settle down the NDC after the mid December ballot is to offer Spio the Vice Presidential candidacy of the NDC. I hear you all saying that both of them are Fantis. Yes, I know! but my question is: “so what?” Actually, saying both are Fantis is only nearly true.

The easiest accommodation is to give Spio first option of choosing a ministry in a Mills Government, and a prominent role in the forthcoming campaign. He could also be assured that he would be the first among equals should the next opportunity arise. The latter carrying the same problems as in the first method.

All the aforementioned accommodations would depend on whether Spio would be happy with anything less than being elected the NDC Presidential candidate mid December, and hopefully eventually becoming the next President of Ghana in 2009. The task of NDC party apparachiks is to ensure Spio would accept some accommodation, other than the top prize.

An NPP guy asked me whether a Spio loss would drive him into the arms of Obed’s DFP and spell the demise of the NDC.

- the PNDC/NDC has a high level of emotional investment in Ghanaian voters, both pro and anti-PNDC/NDC voters. That has not been eroded and wont be eroded too soon. The pro-PNDC/NDC will remain pro, the anti-PNDC/NDC will remain anti.

- the NPP would be better off facing a relatively intact NDC in 2008 and beating it fair and square. Dispersal of the opposition, into relatively strong albeit smaller units, would create the political equivalent of a mathematical riddle which even Pythagorus would have difficulty solving

- if Spio were to flee the NDC, he is more likely to end up with the Nkrumaist parties. Well organised Nkrumaist parties stand to benefit from a disciplined flight of votes from the other parties in election 2008. Spio can ensure that, the funeral would be on the NPP and we would all be saying that the NPP has been too smart by half.

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