Global food prices were 5.8 per cent higher in September than a year earlier, according to data released on Friday by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The rise threatens to push up the cost of Ghana’s food imports, making food stuffs more expensive to pay for.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 136.0 points in September. That was up 1.5 per cent from August. The FAO said prices of crop-based commodities, including cereals, vegetable oils and sugar, all rose during the month.

The increase lands on a large bill. Ghana spent GH¢36.46 billion on food imports in 2025, according to the Ghana Statistical Service. Rice alone accounted for about GH¢3.58 billion of that, while processed cereal grains, the single largest food import, cost GH¢2.94 billion. Sugar and palm oil were also among the leading food imports, and rice, sugar and palm oil are all among the commodities now rising on world markets.

The sharpest pressure came from grains. The FAO Cereal Price Index jumped 5.1 per cent in a single month and stood 17.2 per cent above its level a year ago. World wheat prices rose 6.3 per cent to their highest level since August 2023, while maize prices climbed 5.6 per cent to their highest in more than three years.

The FAO linked the rise in wheat to logistical problems in the Black Sea region, which pushed importers towards other suppliers, and to dry weather in parts of North America. Maize prices were driven by lower-than-expected yields in the United States and reduced export availability from Brazil.

The conflict in the Middle East is adding to the pressure. The FAO said uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had keptconcerns about fuel, fertilizer and freight costs elevated, providing additional support to food commodity prices.

Sugar prices also rose sharply. The FAO Sugar Price Index climbed 6.1 per cent from August to its highest level since April 2025, its third consecutive monthly increase. It now stands 14.7 per cent above a year ago. The FAO said lower production forecasts in Thailand and concerns over crops in India, amid below-normal rainfall and strengthening El Niño conditions, had tightened the global supply outlook.

Cooking oil prices also remain high. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 0.9 per cent in September and is 18.3 per cent higher than a year earlier, driven mainly by palm oil. Palm oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive month on strong global demand and concerns that dry weather will hurt production in Southeast Asia.

Rice, a staple in Ghanaian households, is also edging up. The FAO All Rice Price Index rose 1.4 per cent in September as prices of Indica varieties, the long-grain rice widely traded on world markets, increased amid weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.

Ghana’s exposure to rice and wheat is especially high. The country is forecast to import about 1 million tonnes of rice and 1.12 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Most of the rice sold in Ghana is imported, largely from Vietnam, India and Thailand. Ghana grows little wheat, so bread and flour depend almost entirely on imports.

The outlook for rice could worsen. A strong El Niño has formed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to peak between October 2026 and January 2027, according to global weather agencies, with widespread drought forecast across major rice-producing countries in Southeast Asia. In past El Niño-driven shortages, leading exporters India, Vietnam and Thailand have each restricted rice shipments to protect domestic prices.

Not all the news is bad. The FAO Meat Price Index fell 1.1 per cent in September, with poultry prices declining amid ample export supplies from Brazil. That could offer some relief for Ghana’s imported frozen poultry. The Dairy Price Index was stable and remains 19.1 per cent below its level a year ago.

The currency adds to the strain. The cedi lost 3.9 per cent of its value against the US dollar in September, closing the month at GH¢11.7159 on the Bank of Ghana’s interbank market. That means importers are paying more cedis for goods whose dollar prices are themselves rising.

So far, food prices in Ghana have stayed relatively calm. Food inflation eased to 3.0 per cent in August, and imported inflation was just 2.2 per cent, helped by a relatively stable exchange rate. Headline inflation stood at 5.0 per cent.

The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee warned at its September meeting that rising food prices, driven by higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs, were among the key external risks to the inflation outlook. It also flagged the potential impact of El Niño on food harvests at home.

Fertilizer is another channel. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about a third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, pushed prices sharply higher earlier this year. The World Bank projected that urea prices would average around US$675 a tonne in 2026, close to 60 per cent higher than in 2025. Urea prices have since eased from their peak as shipping through the strait partly recovered, but the FAO says uncertainty over the route continues to keep fertilizer costs a concern. Higher input costs raise the cost of growing food locally, while a poor El Niño season could also hurt harvests.

For importers, traders and households, the message from global markets is that the cheap food prices of recent months may be hard to sustain as the festive season approaches.