Cocoa prices fell on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, retreating after hitting their highest level in two‑and‑a‑half weeks earlier in the day.

The rally had been driven by COCOBOD’s warning that Ghana’s cocoa output could decline in the 2026/27 season.

Prices had surged more than 15% over the past three trading sessions, but the sharp gains prompted traders to lock in profits, triggering a pullback before the market closed.

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COCOBOD however said output could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tonnes from the projected 750,000 metric tonnes in the 2025/26 season.

COCOBOD attributed the expected drop in production to swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and the possible impact of the El Niño weather pattern.

However, the market also received fresh signs of improving cocoa supplies. Data from Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 million metric tonnes of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025, and August 2, 2026.

This was 20% more than the same period last year. Nigeria's cocoa exports also increased by 30% year-on-year in June to 18,922 metric tonnes, according to a Bloomberg report published on July 16.

Cocoa prices also came under pressure as inventories continued to rise. ICE cocoa inventories reached 3,375,119 bags last Tuesday, the highest level recorded in two years.

Demand for cocoa remained mixed during the second quarter of the year. In Europe, cocoa grindings fell by 4.6% to 316,366 metric tonnes, the lowest second-quarter level in six years.

However, North American cocoa grindings rose by 7.7% to 109,659 metric tonnes, while Asia recorded a 25% increase to 224,646 metric tonnes, showing stronger demand in both regions.

Despite the recent decline in prices, concerns over future cocoa supplies remain. StoneX recently lowered its forecast for the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season to 25,000 metric tonnes from 149,000 metric tonnes, citing risks to West African production from the expected El Niño weather pattern.

ANAS/SA

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