The World Bank has warned that ongoing conflict and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose a significant risk to global fertiliser supply, raising concerns over potential shortages and price increases for key agricultural inputs.

Speaking at a World Bank Civil Society Organisation Engagement on food security in Accra, Agricultural Economist-World Bank Ghana office, Dr Ashwini Rekha Sebastian, said the tensions are creating anxiety about price surges and shortages; not just with input supply but also key staples including rice.

Global fertiliser prices are soaring – with urea rising over 50 percent to over US$700 per tonne – as the Middle East crisis disrupts key supplies, particularly nitrogen-based products.

The conflict threatens shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling a 24 percent increase in ammonia prices and causing severe shortages due to natural gas bottlenecks.

Global urea prices have risen from under US$425 per metric tonne to over US$600–US$700 per tonne, while prices for ammonia have risen 24 percent from US$495 per tonne in late February to over US$600 per tonne in mid-March.

Despite the global threats, Dr Sebastian said some progress has been made and a lot more can happen if the right and targetted investment is put in place.

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Dr Sebastian said the World Bank has targeted several investments with financial commitments in key sub-sectors of the overall agriculture sector.

According to her, the Bank has committed some US$75million to a cocoa rehabilitation initiative aimed at restoring about 25,000 hectares of cocoa farms across Ghana, as the sector faces mounting pressure from disease outbreaks and declining productivity.

The funding, sourced under its West Africa Food Systems Resilience Programme (FSRP) with oversight from the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, will support efforts at reviving severely affected farmlands to improve yields, strengthen farmer incomes and enhance the cocoa sector’s long-term sustainability.

Dr. Sebastian explained that beyond cocoa, the programme is supporting seed system development in selected clusters – including trials of improved crop varieties of tomato that can withstand dry season conditions, particularly in northern Ghana.

“We have a US$12million intervention for commercial poultry farmers, a US$200million grant intervention for tree crops and an up to US$20million grant facility to boost tomato production,” she noted.

Project Coordinator for the FSRP in Ghana, Osei Owusu Agyeman said the programme, apart from its focus on other key sectors, also aims to produce 6,000 metric tonnes of tomatoes to reduce the need for imports which currently fill a gap due to low local production.

By training 1,500 farmers and providing climate-smart seeds and inputs, the project aims for 15-20 tonnes per hectare yields; thus tackling post-harvest losses and off-season shortages.

Key CSOs that participated in the meeting include the Economic Governance Platform (EGP), Peasant Farmers Association (PFAG), Rice Farmers and Millers Association and Ghana National Association of Poultry Farmers.

The dialogue forms part of an ongoing collaboration between the World Bank and EGP to foster evidence-based policy, progressive reform and focused discourse among key development actors on agriculture in Ghana.