The Minerals Income and Investment Fund (MIIF) has identified geopolitical risk as one of the most important factors likely to shape global markets in 2026, citing its growing influence on commodity prices, capital flows and investor risk appetite.

In 2025, escalating tensions in the Middle East, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed trade frictions contributed to sharp price swings across energy and precious metals markets.

MIIF’s Economic & Market Overview for 2025 notes that these risks remain unresolved and are expected to continue affecting supply chains and investment decisions in the year ahead.

Data from 2025 highlights the scale of the impact. Gold prices rose by nearly 72 percent over the year, driven by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases and expectations of global monetary easing.

Silver outperformed in the fourth quarter, climbing more than 50 percent amid robust industrial demand from the solar and electronics sectors.

In contrast, Brent crude declined by over nine percent in Q4, while cocoa and bauxite prices softened amid easing supply constraints and weaker downstream demand.

MIIF highlights that these divergences demonstrate how geopolitical shocks increasingly interact with structural market dynamics rather than linearly driving prices.

The fund also points to the role of geopolitics in shaping policy and investment flows.

Central banks continued to accumulate gold as a hedge against geopolitical and currency risks, while mining investment increasingly favoured jurisdictions considered politically stable and strategically important to energy-transition supply chains.

In 2026, MIIF expects developments such as OPEC production decisions, diplomatic efforts in major conflict zones and shifts in global trade policy to remain key variables influencing commodity markets, portfolio allocation and Ghana’s external sector performance.

The mining and commodities sector closed 2025 with gold as Ghana’s clear outperformer, as record prices and sustained investment in the precious metal offset weakening conditions in oil, bauxite and cocoa.

MIIF data show gold prices rising from US$3,858.96/oz at the end of Q3 2025 to US$4,319.37/oz by year-end, an 11.9 percent quarter-on-quarter gain, helping sustain capital inflows even as Brent crude, cocoa and bauxite corrected.

This divergence has reinforced gold’s role as the anchor of Ghana’s extractive economy amid softer bulk commodity markets and delays in new projects, particularly lithium, constraining broader mining momentum.

At the company level, MIIF highlighted an active fourth quarter for Asante Gold Corporation, which advanced exploration at its Bibiani and Chirano mines.

Sulphide recovery improved sharply in December from about 60 percent to near-term targets of 82-92 percent, while the company strengthened its balance sheet with a US$30million accordion facility, converted approximately US$80million in Kinross-linked debt and raised C$156million in a bought-deal equity offering, alongside additional private and insider placements totalling more than C$138million.

Completion of these transactions is expected in Q1 2026.

In lithium, MIIF noted that development remained strategically important but uneven.

Atlantic Lithium advanced cautiously as parliamentary ratification of its Ewoyaa mining lease remained pending, while weaker lithium prices reinforced a focus on cost control and liquidity.

The company secured up to £4.28million from Long State Investments, extending its runway while continuing early-stage exploration in Côte d’Ivoire.

Meanwhile, Newmont Corporation achieved commercial production at Ahafo North, with output projected at ~50,000 ounces in 2025 and a ramp-up to 275,000–325,000 ounces annually over a 13-year mine life, reinforcing the company’s Ghana presence alongside Ahafo South.

Across other commodities, lithium spodumene concentrate prices rebounded sharply from US$830/tonne to about US$1,405/tonne, driven by stronger EV demand visibility and renewed financing activity, although volatility remained elevated.

Silver also posted strong gains in Q4, while manganese prices recorded modest increases.

By contrast, Brent crude remained under pressure amid rising supply and subdued demand expectations. Cocoa and bauxite prices declined 9 percent each quarter-on-quarter, reflecting softer processing demand following earlier 2025 peaks.

MIIF notes that while gold continues to anchor Ghana’s mining sector, the broader commodity landscape reflects growing imbalances.

The report stresses that translating favourable price cycles into diversified output and sustainable economic gains remains a key challenge for the country’s extractive industries in 2026.